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in the future significantly more than the

mate system's inertia ensures that the costs of

largest estimated increase under any scenario

emission reductions will have to be borne for

for the population at risk for hunger as a con-

decades before any benefits accrue.

sequence of climate change--particularly if the

Examples of what focused adaptation

additional investment is targeted toward solv-

might entail are discussed below.

ing developing countries' current food and

agricultural problems that might be exacer-

Malaria

bated by warming.

The UN Millennium project reports that

An alternative cost estimate can be derived

the global death toll from malaria could be

from the work of the UN Millennium Project,

reduced by 75 percent at a cost of $3 billion

per year.72 Adaptations focused on reducing

which estimates that somewhere between 5

and 8 percent of the extra funding needed to

current vulnerabilities to malaria include mea-

realize the MDGs would be required to reduce

sures targeted specifically at malaria as well as

global hunger by 50 percent in 2015.75 That

measures that would generally enhance the

capacity to respond to public health problems

works out to less than $12 billion in 2010 and

about $15 billion in 2015.76 For the purpose of

and deliver public health services more effec-

tively and efficiently. Malaria-specific mea-

this discussion, I will assume $15 billion per

An additional

sures include indoor residual (home) spraying

year for the 2010­2015 period.

$5 billion annual

with insecticides, insecticide-treated bed nets,

Current agricultural problems that could be

improved case management, more compre-

exacerbated by warming and should be the focus

investment in

hensive antenatal care, and development of

of vulnerability-reduction measures include

agricultural R&D

safe, effective, and cheap vaccines and thera-

growing crops in poor climatic or soil conditions

pies.73 Moreover, if these measures are even

should raise

(e.g., low-soil moisture in some areas, too much

water in others, or soils with high salinity, alka-

partly successful, they could further reduce

productivity

linity, or acidity). Because of warming, such con-

the likelihood of outbreaks because the risk of

sufficiently to

ditions could become more prevalent and agri-

exposure would be lower.

culture might have to expand into areas with

The posited expenditures may have to be

more than

poorer soils, or both. Actions focused on increas-

increased by the year 2085 to keep pace with

compensate

ing agricultural productivity under current mar-

the projected increase in the global popula-

for the estimated

ginal conditions would alleviate hunger in the

tion at risk from malaria in the absence of cli-

future whether or not the climate changes.

mate change (see Table 7). I will assume--

0.02 percent

Similarly, because both CO2 and tempera-

based on the ratio of estimated deaths in

annual shortfall

2085 to that in 1990 under the A2 scenario

tures will increase, crop varieties should be

in productivity

(the worst scenario for malaria) and round-

developed to take advantage of such condi-

tions.77 Progress on these approaches does not

ing up to the nearest whole number--that

caused by climate

expenditures should be tripled, regardless of

depend on improving our skill in forecasting

change.

the emission scenario, in order to reduce

location-specific details of climate change

malaria deaths by 75 percent.

impacts analyses. These focused adaptation

measures should be complemented by develop-

Hunger

ment of higher-yield, lower-impact crop vari-

An additional $5 billion annual investment

eties and improved agronomic practices so that

in agricultural R&D--approximately 15 per-

more food is produced per unit acre. That

cent of global funding of agricultural research

would help reduce hunger while providing

and development during the 1990s--should

numerous ancillary benefits for biodiversity

and sustainable development.78

raise productivity sufficiently to more than

compensate for the estimated 0.02 percent

annual shortfall in productivity caused by cli-

Coastal Flooding

mate change.74 As Table 2 shows, that should

According to estimates in the latest IPCC

(2007) report, the annual cost of protecting

reduce the total population at risk for hunger

18