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Focused

the positive aspects of climate change while

literature doesn't provide any good cost esti-

reducing its negatives. And while the impacts

mates for such a scenario.

adaptation is far

of global warming are uncertain, there is no

more likely to

doubt that malaria, hunger, water stress, and

Focused Adaptation

deliver benefits

coastal flooding are real and urgent problems

As indicated in Table 7, suspending cli-

here and now. Thus, focused adaptation is far

mate at its 1990 level at a cost somewhere

than is

more likely to deliver benefits than is mitiga-

above $165 billion annually would leave

mitigation, and

tion, and to deliver those benefits sooner

90­96 percent of the mortality problem for

rather than later.

the three listed threats unsolved. By contrast,

to deliver those

Significantly, work on focused adaptation

policies focused on solving the whole prob-

benefits sooner

measures can commence, and in some areas

lem not only would have a larger target of

rather than later.

has already begun, without detailed knowl-

opportunity (namely, 100 percent of the

edge of the impacts of climate change. Cases

problem) but would likely prove more cost-

in point are the development of malaria vac-

effective than mitigation. Focusing on the

cines, transferable property rights for water

former will necessarily enhance human well-

resources, development of early warning sys-

being more than policies that would only

tems for climate-sensitive events ranging

mitigate climate change.

from storms to potential epidemics of various

Moreover, measures that would reduce vul-

kinds, and elucidation of mechanisms that

nerability to the non-climate-change-related

confer resistance in crops to drought, water

portion of the problem would also reduce the

component related to climate change.68 In

logging, or saline soils. To the extent that

such measures do not rely on the location-

particular, policies and measures that would

specific details of impacts analyses, focused

reduce present day vulnerabilities to climate-

adaptation reduces the risk of having wasted

sensitive problems would also reduce similar

resources by pouring them into problems

problems in the future, whether they are

that may or may not occur at specific loca-

caused by climate change or other factors. For

tions.69

instance, a successful malaria vaccine would

help reduce malaria cases regardless of

Ancillary benefits of adaptation focused on

whether the avoided cases would be due to cli-

reducing vulnerability to malaria and hunger

mate change or other factors.

include better health, increased economic

Such an approach--which I will call

growth, and greater human capital, which

"focused adaptation"--would, unlike mitiga-

should advance human well-being and the

tion, bring substantial benefits in the near-to-

capacity to address a much wider variety of

problems.70 These co-benefits, in fact, are

medium term. That is mainly due to the fact

that mitigation will not affect mortality due to

among the goals and purposes of sustainable

the non-climate-change-related component of

development as articulated in the Millennium

Development Goals.71 In other words, focused

the threat. As shown in Table 7, mortality

from hunger, malaria, and coastal flooding in

adaptation to reduce the vulnerability to exist-

the absence of climate change ranges from 4.4

ing climate-sensitive problems would advance

million in 1990 to 2.1­6.3 million in 2085

sustainable development in addition to explic-

(depending on the scenario). Moreover, due to

itly laying the foundations for adapting to

the inertia of the climate system, mitigation

future climate change.

would not reduce the climate change compo-

Finally, the conclusion that focused adap-

nent of the problem significantly until a few

tation is for the foreseeable future superior in

decades hade elapsed.

terms of both global benefits and global costs

Mitigation has the additional problem that

is robust to the choice of discount rates. That

it indiscriminately reduces all impacts of cli-

is because the benefits of focused adaptation

mate change whether they are positive or neg-

will generally follow relatively soon after its

ative. But adaptation can selectively capture

costs are incurred. On the other hand, the cli-

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