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Table 9

Impact of Mitigation Policies, 2085­2100

A1FI (richest-but-warmest)

A2 (poorest)

B1 (coolest)

No Climate

No Climate

No Climate

Kyoto

Change

Kyoto

Change

Kyoto

Change

Protocol  after 1990

Protocol after 1990

Protocol  after 1990

Decline in mortality from

malaria, hunger and

coastal flooding (in

21

237

51

282

10

92

thousands)* in 2085

(1%)

(10%)

(1%)

(4%)

(0%)

(4%)

Decline in population at

risk from water stress (in

-83

-1,192

-44

-234

millions)* in 2085

(-5%)

(-72%)

0

0

(-2%)

(-11%)

Habitat available for the

Small

Small

rest of nature measured

decrease

decrease

by extent of cropland

in available  Larger

in available  Some

in 2100

habitat

decrease

NA

NA

habitat

decrease

Sources: Tables 3, 6, and 7; and Indur M. Goklany, "A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization

or Adaptation?" Energy & Environment 16 (2005): 667­80. Note: The negative sign in the second­to-last row (for

water stress) indicates that mitigation will make matters worse in 2085. The figures in parentheses indicate the percent

declines in total mortality from malaria, hunger, and coastal flooding (or populations at risk from water stress) under

the control scenarios. NA = not available.

species. This illustrates one of the major short-

To construct this table, I optimistically

comings of mitigation, namely, mitigation is

assumed that by 2085 the Protocol would

indiscriminate--it reduces all impacts, wheth-

reduce climate change, as represented by the

er they are positive or negative.

changes in global temperature and sea level, by

The effects of

Table 9 also demonstrates that the bene-

7 percent, which would then reduce the

mitigation could

fits of the Kyoto Protocol are relatively trivial

impacts of climate change on malaria, hunger,

compared to the magnitudes of the problems

and water stress by a like amount, and the

be a mixed bag--

impacts of coastal flooding by 21 percent.65

that it would address. For example, it would

declines in

reduce cumulative mortality for malaria,

This is based on research published by Thomas

hunger, and coastal flooding by 0­1 percent,

Wigley, which estimates that if the Kyoto

mortality from

compared to 4­10 percent if climate were to

Protocol were to be fully implemented, it would

malaria, hunger,

be somehow frozen at its 1990 level.

reduce the amount of warming in the 2080s by

no more than 7 percent.66 As will become evi-

and coastal flood-

Those relatively trivial benefits, however,

would cost significant amounts of money.

dent, however, the validity of the arguments

ing but increases

For instance, if the Kyoto Protocol were fully

and conclusions in this paper hold regardless of

in populations at

implemented by all signatories (including

the assumptions about the effectiveness of the

the United States and Australia), it would

Kyoto Protocol in reducing climate change.

risk from water

likely cost Annex 1 countries at least $165 bil-

Table 9 demonstrates that, at least through

stress and

lion per year in 2010, a figure on the lower

2085, the effects of mitigation could be a

decreases in the

end of the range of estimates produced by the

mixed bag--declines in mortality from malar-

IPCC's 2001 report.67 The cost of the no-cli-

ia, hunger, and coastal flooding but increases

habitat available

in populations at risk from water stress and

mate-change scenario, assuming it's even fea-

for other species.

decreases in the habitat available for other

sible, would be far greater than that, but the

16