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Economic

order. Thus, even though the A1FI scenario

The columns in this and most subsequent

has the greatest amount of warming and thus,

tables are arranged by scenario in the order of

growth broadly

the largest amount of climate change, it would

decreasing global temperature changes. Using

increases human

not necessarily have the worst outcomes.

the labels provided by the IPCC, these scenar-

well-being by

That's because it should also have the highest

ios from left to right are A1FI (warmest), A2,

B2, and B1 (coolest).15

degree of adaptive capacity.

increasing wealth,

Economic growth broadly increases human

The FTA used these climate change pro-

technological

well-being by increasing wealth, technological

jections to estimate the global impacts on

development, and human capital. These factors

various climate-sensitive threats which also

development,

enable society to address virtually any kind of

serve as determinants of human and environ-

and human

mental well-being.16 With respect to threats

adversity, whether it is related to climate or not,

capital.

while specifically increasing society's capacity to

affecting human well-being, the FTA ana-

reduce climate change damages through either

lyzed hunger, water stress, coastal flooding,

and malaria.17 With respect to environmental

adaptation or mitigation.20 Many determinants

well-being, the FTA projected the net biolog-

of human well-being--hunger, malnutrition,

ical productivity of the terrestrial biosphere

mortality rates, life expectancy, the level of edu-

(as measured by its ability to fix carbon in

cation, and spending on health care and on

vegetation, i.e., sequester carbon as biomass)

research and development--improve along

and the global extent of coastal wetlands and

with the level of economic development, as

croplands.18

measured by GDP per capita.21

Increasing wealth also improves some,

though not necessarily all, indicators of envi-

Wealth Creation, Technological Advance,

ronmental well-being. Wealthier nations have

and Climate Change

higher cereal yield (an important determinant

Although climate change can lead to a

of cropland, which is inversely related to habi-

deterioration of many human health and envi-

tat conversion) and greater access to safe water

ronmental metrics, that does not tell us what

and sanitation. They also have lower birth

we really want to know. What we want to

rates.22 Notably, access to safe water and access

know is this: Will human health and environ-

mental quality be better under richer but

to sanitation double as indicators of both

warmer scenarios than under poorer but cool-

human and environmental well-being, as does

er scenarios? That's primarily because wealth

crop yield, since higher yield not only means

creation, human capital, and new or improved

more food and lower hunger, it also lowers

pressure on habitat.23

technologies often reduce the extent of the

human health and environmental "bads"

Cross country data also indicate that for a

associated with climate change more than

fixed level of economic development, these

temperature increases exacerbate them.

indicators of human and environmental well-

The data in Table 1 suggests that, on one

being (e.g., malnutrition, mortality rates, life

hand, the impacts of climate change should

expectancy, access to safe water, crop yields,

decrease as one goes from scenario A1FI on

and so forth) improve with time (because tech-

the left to B1 on the right (in accordance with

nology almost inevitably improves with

time).24 Similarly one should expect, all else

the pattern of declining climate change, ceteris

paribus). On the other hand, economic and

being equal, that society's ability to cope with

technological development--both critical

any adversity, including climate change,

determinants of adaptive capacity--ought to

should also increase with the passage of time.

attenuate the impacts of climate change.19

Thus, over time, the combination of eco-

nomic and technological development should

Considering future levels of economic and

increase society's adaptive capacity which, bar-

technological development, that attenuation

ring inadvertent maladaptation, ought to

should be greatest for the A1FI scenario, fol-

reduce the future impacts of climate change.25

lowed by the B1, B2 and A2 scenarios, in that

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