Climate change
term, by policies that address the underlying
Introduction
causes of the environmental and human
exacerbates
health problems that are exacerbated by cli-
existing environ-
mate change.
Most future scenarios suggest that the
mental and
The data and projections used in this
world will get more populated and wealthier
study come primarily from two reports:
during this century. Although this should
human health
advance human well-being, it may also
problems, but
· The "fast-track assessment" (FTA) of the
increase climate change, which might in turn
at least partly offset, if not overwhelm, any
global impacts of climate change, spon-
only to a modest
advances in well-being that would have
sored by the U.K. Department of Environ-
degree relative to
occurred absent climate change. The U.N.
ment, Forests and Rural Affairs; and
other factors.
· The Stern Review on the economics of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
reports in its 2001 assessment that modest
climate change.
global warming (1 to 2°C over 1990 levels)
could increase global economic product with
The Fast-Track Assessment
gains in the higher-latitude, developed coun-
The FTA of the global impacts of climate
tries, more than offsetting losses in develop-
change was published in a special issue of
ing countries.1 However, global temperature
Global Environmental Change: Part A edited by
Martin Parry.3 This is supplemented, as nec-
increases beyond that could reduce global
economic product and wreak substantial
essary, by other DEFRA-sponsored studies.
environmental damage.
Many, if not most, authors of these papers
Such considerations have led influential
have served as coordinating lead authors,
politicians such as former British prime min-
lead authors, or contributing authors of the
ister Tony Blair, former U.S. president Bill
IPCC's third and fourth assessment reports.
Clinton, and former French President Jacques
Parry is, moreover, the current chairman of
Chirac, to proclaim that climate change is the
the IPCC's Work Group II, which oversees
most important environmental problem fac-
the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
ing the globe this century and, unless checked
sections of the assessments.
drastically, would before long reduce human
Like all estimates of the impacts of climate
and environmental well-being.2
change, the FTA's analyses are plagued with
uncertainties resulting from the fact that such
This study examines whether climate
estimates are derived using a series of linked
change is in fact the world's most pressing
models with the uncertain output of each
environmental and human health problem
model serving as the input for the next model.
and considers the merits of mitigation (that
To compound matters, each model is neces-
is, policies that would restrict emissions or
sarily a simplified representation of reality.
concentrations of greenhouse gases) versus
The chain of models typically starts with
adaptation (policies that would reduce or
emission models, which are driven by various
take advantage of the impact of the climate
socioeconomic assumptions about the next
change caused by greenhouse gas emissions)
100 years or more in order to generate emis-
to address whatever problems are created or
sion scenarios extending to the latter part of
exacerbated. In short, careful analysis reveals
this century. But even users of these emission
that through the foreseeable future, climate
scenarios acknowledge that 2085 is at the
change exacerbates existing environmental
outer limit of the foreseeable future because
and human health problems, but only to a
socioeconomic predictions beyond that
modest degree relative to contributions from
point are too speculative.4 Even 2085 is likely
other factors not related to climate change.
Hence, the threats posed by climate change
too great a stretch. For instance, a paper com-
are more robustly and cost-effectively
missioned for the Stern Review noted that
addressed, at least in the short- to medium-
"changes in socioeconomic systems cannot
2