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No. 609

February 5, 2008

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What to Do about Climate Change

by Indur M. Goklany

Executive Summary

tomorrow's wealthier generations, are unpersua-

The state-of-the-art British-sponsored fast-

sive.

track assessment of the global impacts of climate

Halting climate change would reduce cumu-

change, a major input to the much-heralded Stern

lative mortality from various climate-sensitive

Review on the Economics of Climate Change, indicates

threats, namely, hunger, malaria, and coastal

that through the year 2100, the contribution of

flooding, by 4­10 percent in 2085, while increas-

climate change to human health and environ-

ing populations at risk from water stress and

mental threats will generally be overshadowed by

possibly worsening matters for biodiversity. But

factors not related to climate change. Hence, cli-

according to cost information from the UN

mate change is unlikely to be the world's most

Millennium Program and the IPCC, measures

important environmental problem of the 21st

focused specifically on reducing vulnerability to

century.

these threats would reduce cumulative mortality

Analysis using both the Stern Review and the

from these risks by 50­75 percent at a fraction of

fast-track assessment reveals that notwithstand-

the cost of reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs).

ing climate change, for the foreseeable future,

Simultaneously, such measures would reduce

human and environmental well-being will be

major hurdles to the developing world's sustain-

highest under the "richest-but-warmest" sce-

able economic development, the lack of which is

nario and lower for the poorer (lower-carbon)

why it is most vulnerable to climate change.

scenarios. The developing world's future well-

The world can best combat climate change

being should exceed present levels by several-fold

and advance well-being, particularly of the

under each scenario, even exceeding present well-

world's most vulnerable populations, by reducing

being in today's developed world under all but the

present-day vulnerabilities to climate-sensitive

poorest scenario. Accordingly, equity-based argu-

problems that could be exacerbated by climate

ments, which hold that present generations

change rather than through overly aggressive

should divert scarce resources from today's

GHG reductions.

urgent problems to solve potential problems of

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Indur Goklany is the author of The Improving State of the World, from which much of this paper is derived,

and The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk Assessment, both pub-

lished by the Cato Institute.