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Table 4
Portland, Oregon, New Urban Transportation Mix
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Mode of Travel
1990
2040
Change
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Auto
92.05%
87.79%
-4.6%
Transit
2.78%
6.38%
+129.5%
Walk or bike
5.17%
5.83%
+12.8%
Total trips (millions)
4.48
7.9200
+77.8%
Auto trips (millions)
4.12
6.950
+68.7%
Congested roads (miles)
150
454
+202.7%
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Source: Metro, Region 2040 Recommended Alternative Technical Appen-
dix (Portland: Metro, 1994).
Note: The 1990 column represents the current situation; the 2040 column
represents the projected situation after implementation of Portland's
New Urban plan.
Although the plan would cause a 4.6 percent reduction
in the auto's share of trips, a 77 percent increase in the
projected number of trips means that the number of auto
trips will increase by 69 percent. Since Portland's New
Urban plan calls for just a 14 percent increase in road
capacities, planners predict that congestion will triple.
That congestion contributes to a projected 10 percent in
crease in NOx, a component of automotive exhaust that con-
tributes to smog.91
Density, mixed use, light rail, pedestrian-friendly
design, and transit-oriented developments turn out to have
little effect on modes of travel. Instead, the basis of the
prediction of fewer auto trips is probably the unrealistic
assumption that all employers and shopping centers will
begin to charge for parking.92
Despite the lack of analysis in Portland's transporta-
tion plan, several important tradeoffs are apparent. For
example, for $66 million, Tri-Met, Portland's transit agen-
cy, could start "fastlink" service on a dozen different bus
routes. Tri-Met describes fastlink as the bus equivalent of
light rail. More frequent buses would go on existing routes
but stop much less frequently, leading to faster speeds and
greater service reliability. Tri-Met's experience is that