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· how much traffic currently travels the routes the

rail line would parallel,

· how much of that traffic the rail line would relieve,

and

· how many miles of rail line would be built.

Since nearly all EISs claimed that new rail lines were

needed to relieve congestion, it seems strange that a major-

ity did not actually calculate how much congestion relief

the lines would provide.  One explanation is that such

calculations do little to support the decision to build

rail.  The EISs that did make such calculations almost

invariably found that congestion relief would be insignifi-

cant.

Biased Cost-Effectiveness Index

An important part of the rail planning process designed

by the Department of Transportation is the calculation of a

"cost-effectiveness index" for each alternative.  That index

purports to estimate the cost of each new transit rider

attracted by rail or other alternatives.  Since most new

riders would presumably otherwise travel by car, the cost-

effectiveness index measures the cost of reducing congestion

and pollution.

To calculate the cost-effectiveness index, the capital

and operating costs of the transportation system management

alternative are subtracted from those of the rail or other

construction alternatives.  The capital costs are annualized

using a discount rate such as 7 percent or 10 percent.  If

the rail alternative saves transit riders time over the

baseline alternative, that is counted as a benefit by sub-

tracting it from costs.  The total cost is then divided by

the projected number of new riders.70

As a rule of thumb, the Department of Transportation

will provide discretionary funds only for projects that cost

less than $6 per new rider.  None of the EISs reviewed

calculated a cost-effectiveness index much less than $10 (to

be precise, $9.97 was the lowest).

A major problem with this index is the value of time

savings for transit riders.  For the past several years

Department of Transportation guidelines have directed plan-

ners to assume that transit riders' time is worth $11.70 per

hour.  The previous value was set in 1984 at only $2 to $4