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Page 29

Rail's Track Record

Rail construction takes so long that few of the rail

lines authorized by the 1991 ISTEA have been completed, and

those that have been completed are too new to judge.  Howev-

er, more than a dozen cities have built new rail lines in

the past two decades, and those lines provide a good measure

of rail's success in moving people efficiently and in reduc-

ing congestion and pollution.

Light rail was originally proposed as an inexpensive

alternative to highways.  In 1973 the state of Oregon esti-

mated that Portland light-rail service could begin on 46

route-miles for less than $84 million, or about $2 million

per mile.57  Costs quickly escalated after federal funds

became available and cities committed themselves to rail.

Portland's first 15-mile light-rail line, originally pro-

jected to cost $135 million when construction began in 1979,

ended up costing $214 million, or $14 million per mile; a

17-mile line now under construction is costing $963 million,

or $56 million per mile.  A proposed 29-mile line was origi-

nally estimated to cost $2.85 billion, or nearly $100 mil-

lion per mile.

Weekday ridership, which was projected to reach 42,500

after 5 years and 57,000 after 10 years, has stubbornly

remained less than half of projections, around 25,000 riders

per day.  Moreover, most of the riders were formerly bus

riders, and at least a third of all riders drive to park-

and-ride stations, which means that they produce almost as

much cold-start pollution as they would if they drove all

the way to work.

Portland transit ridership actually declined between

1980, when light-rail construction began, and 1990, four

years after its completion.  Since Portland was rapidly

growing during those years, that means that transit lost a

significant share of both the total transportation and the

commuter market to the automobile.  That is particularly

disappointing because Portland's transit system increased

its share of the commuter market during the 1970s, when it

was exclusively a bus system.

Portland's experience is the rule rather than the

exception.  Of all the rail systems built in the past two

decades, only two--in Washington, D.C., and San Diego--were

accompanied by significant increases in overall transit

ridership.