Election Day: A Test for Democrats

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Michael D. Tanner, senior fellowmtanner@cato.org:

If Republicans make significant gains in statewide and special elections today, it will be a shot across the bow to Democrats in marginal districts, warning that Americans are deeply troubled by the rapid growth of government under the Obama administration.

Will Democrats like Tom Perriello of Virginia be able to support a “robust public option” as part of a health care package if Republicans sweep to victory in Virginia? If Republicans win or even come close in a deeply "blue" state like New Jersey, will representatives like John Adler think twice about a climate bill that would make energy costs go up in an already weak economy?

Democrats were already deeply divided over health care reform and climate legislation. The results from today's election are unlikely to make their path any easier.

John Samples, director, Center for Representative Governmentjsamples@cato.org:

Whatever their outcomes, the elections today in Virginia, New York, and New Jersey reflect poorly on the Obama administration. One year ago, Obama won Virginia convincingly. Now all Democrats running statewide seem likely to lose, perhaps by large margins. Democratic governor Jon Corzine may pull through in New Jersey, but the fact that he might lose in such a heavily blue state suggests how far public sentiment has swung against his party and its national leader. The New York election tells us less about national party trends than about struggles within the GOP. Still, a conservative Republican victory in upstate New York would suggest Democratic weakness rather than strength.

Other signs agree with the portents of these elections. Obama's job approval dropped more in the third quarter of 2009 than it had for any other president over the last half century. A solid majority of Americans believe the nation is "on the wrong track." Support in public opinion for Democrats in Congress has dropped steeply.

All in all, the evidence suggests the Obama administration might be on the same path that led the Clinton presidency to the election of 1994. But there is an important difference: In 1994, the public had some faith in the alternative to Clinton and the Democrats in Congress. In 2009, the public still has doubts about the Republican alternative to Pelosi and Obama. Those doubts came from the failings of the Bush administration. Until the Republicans reject the ideas that led to those failings – Big Government at home and crusades for democracy abroad – they will remain a second best alternative to Democrats that the public distrusts.

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