Election Outcome Won't Stabilize Kabul

Monday, November 2, 2009

Malou Innocent, foreign policy analystminnocent@cato.org:

President Karzai's "victory" in the Afghan presidential election does little to increase the legitimacy of the government in Kabul. A necessary condition for a successful counterinsurgency campaign--the current American strategy--is the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Sadly, there will not be a legitimate central government for some time to come.

Pervasive corruption is contributing to illegitimacy, collapse of public confidence in the government, and to the resurgence of the Taliban. Reports that President Karzai's brother is taking payments from the CIA do not help. The U.S. government works at cross purposes when it attempts to install a "legitimate" centralized government, wags a sanctimonious finger when elections are riddled with pervasive levels of fraud and vote-fixing, and then goes behind the backs of millions of Afghans by having a close working relationship with the brother of the re-elected President.

Unfortunately, the U.S. has assisted and sponsored a corrupt, illegitimate, and slightly autocratic regime while purporting to advance the values of freedom and democracy. The entire rationale for the presence of the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan rests on democracy, stability, and winning hearts and minds. These goals may not even be realistic, let alone achievable in the near future.

The Obama administration should keep in mind that defeating a large-scale insurgency and creating a legitimate central government in Kabul is not critical to keeping America safe. Counterinsurgency is both the most expensive option for the U.S. and the one least likely to succeed. Defeating al Qaeda is a must, but sending more troops to Afghanistan is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition to achieve that objective.

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