Smoke, Mirrors and Hot Air on Climate Change

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Patrick J. Michaels, senior fellow in environmental studiespmichaels@cato.org:

The Environmental Protection Agency has just announced its first regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from large emitters such as power plants and major manufacturers. While giving no specifics, administrator Lisa Jackson announced that any permits for new or upgraded facilities will be required to use so-called "best available technology" with regard to emissions of carbon dioxide and other "greenhouse" gases.

While this is EPA's first foray into industrial greenhouse-gas regulation, it will not be its last. And while industry cannot be happy, the Senate is probably relieved, as it struggles with cap-and-trade legislation.

Sens. John Kerry and Barbara Boxer have co-sponsored the rollout of a measure that has stricter near-term emissions reductions that the Waxman-Markey bill that squeaked through the House on June 26. The bill is, as they say, a dog that won't hunt.

Boxer-Kerry imposes emissions cuts in 2020 that are 18 percent larger than in Waxman-Markey, the bill that actually sparked the first angry town-hall meetings. By 2050, it has the same target, which allows the same level of carbon dioxide emissions as the average American in 1867. There is simply no known suite of technologies that can accomplish this while preserving the current standard of living.

Boxer-Kerry will begin with emissions reductions in the next three years. That won't be hard, because the current economic downturn, the most severe in decades, is likely to reduce 2009 emissions by 9 percent from the 2005 level, according to projections by the Environmental Information Agency. Imagine the state of the economy with the 83 percent reduction required by 2050.

There are too many Democratic senators from energy-producing states that will not vote to cut off debate, which requires 60 votes. It's likely only two Republicans will vote for this, leaving it far short. As shown by today's action, emissions regulations are likely to default to Environmental Protection Agency, laying the onus on President Obama, rather than on 33 senators up for re-election next fall.

In any case, the recent announcement by China that they will continue to grow their emissions dramatically means that neither Boxer-Kerry or the EPA will do anything significant about global warming."

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