Obama's Mideast Watchwords: Manage Expectations

Monday, June 1, 2009

Christopher A. Preble, director, Defense and Foreign Policy Studiescpreble@cato.org:

During the course of his travels in the Mideast, but especially in his Cairo speech, President Obama must impress upon his audience that the United States cannot simply dictate the course of events in their region—or in the world at large. Moderating attitudes toward U.S. policies is key, for as long as extremists can dictate events on the ground—from Nablus to Gaza, and from Baghdad to Kandahar—the greatest danger is in creating unrealistic expectations for regional peace and security. Therefore, while the president might speak of his bold vision for the future, he must convey a sense of humility toward present-day challenges.

A key test case is the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian dispute, where the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank is the key stumbling bloc to a resumption of serious negotiations.

The president will also want to talk about Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. In the latter two cases, the president should reaffirm that his overriding objective is in helping the Iraqi and Afghan governments defend their own people, and that the U.S. government does not desire an open-ended military presence in either country.

With respect to Iran, presidential elections are less than two weeks away, and President Obama isn’t alone in hoping that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s days in power are numbered. But Obama was right to take a wait-and-see approach to Iran, and he should urge other countries in the region to do the same until after June 12th.

Finally, in terms of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, President Obama has previously stated the U.S. government’s opposition to the expansion of Israeli settlements. He might now spell out what additional steps he is willing to take to stop this activity, while at the same time emphasizing that the United States cannot want peace more than the parties to the conflict.

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