Cato Scholar Comments on Iowa Caucuses

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Patrick Basham, adjunct scholar:

The Iowa caucuses won't crown either party's presidential nominee but tonight's order of finish - and the distance between the top vote getters - will be the catalyst for media coverage, fundraising, and voter interest on the political interstate to next Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. On the Democratic side, John Edwards' organizational strength could surprise either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. If so, Edwards becomes the story and may ride an Iowa wave until South Carolina, at least. Yet, both Clinton and Obama can afford to lose Iowa if Edwards is the victor, but neither can afford to come third.

For the Republicans, it's a battle to take-on Rudy Giuliani on Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee must win Iowa, as he won't be winning New Hampshire. Mitt Romney's traditional early state strategy will be in tatters if he loses tonight, as he faces the prospect of losing next week to John McCain. Which leaves Fred Thompson, if he's still in the race, waiting on South Carolina to restart his plodding campaign. Separate winners in Iowa and New Hampshire may strongly reposition Giuliani, despite a dwindling national lead, to face-down his divided, socially conservative opposition

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