News Release

October 10, 2002

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Defense Experts Say War With Iraq Could Undermine U.S. Security
Rush by Congress to approve military action is bad policy, and potentially, bad politics

WASHINGTON -- Cato Institute Vice President for Foreign Policy and Defense Studies Ted Galen Carpenter, and Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies, issued the following statement regarding the House and pending Senate vote to authorize President Bush to take military action against Iraq:

Congress has overwhelmingly passed a resolution authorizing the president to use force against Iraq. Despite this outpouring of overt support, many in Congress are privately squeamish about an invasion of Iraq. For good reason. A conflict with Iraq will subvert the much more important war against the enemy at the gates: al-Qaeda. And an unprovoked invasion of another nation state will undermine the principle of national sovereignty that has undergirded the international system for more than 350 years. A war against Saddam Hussein could actually reduce U.S. security. According to a recently declassified CIA analysis, Hussein is likely to be deterred from perpetrating or assisting in terrorist attacks against the United States with conventional, biological, or chemical weapons unless the United States backs him into a corner by threatening his survival with an invasion.

Possible Iraqi use of biological or chemical weapons or urban combat could drive up U.S. military and Iraqi civilian casualties or lengthen the war. No one can predict the outcome of a war. But any difficulties in the war or the onset of carnage at home from retaliatory terrorism could make voting for the war resolution a lot less safe than many members of Congress anticipate. Polls indicate that the support of the American people for an attack on Iraq erodes significantly if high casualties occur or the war is drawn out. The rush by Congress to jump on the administration's bandwagon toward war is bad policy and may turn out to be bad politics.