September 11, 2000

India could be useful partner-or troublesome foe
Washington should recognize and embrace India as a world power, study says

WASHINGTON-On the eve of Indian Prime Minister A. B. Vajpayee's state visit to Washington, the first by an Indian prime minister in six years, a new Cato Institute study says the United States must start taking India seriously as a world power. Ignoring or antagonizing India is shortsighted and could lead to an anti-American alliance comprising India, Russia and China, the study warns.

In "India as a World Power: Changing Washington's Myopic Policy," independent security policy analyst Victor M. Gobarev argues that the U.S. government has consistently underestimated India's power and its usefulness as an American friend in Asia. "The United States still sees India as a Third World, poverty-stricken giant," Gobarev writes, even though India has a nuclear arsenal, a large military budget, a sophisticated space program and a booming high-tech sector. Indeed, the International Monetary Fund projects that India's gross domestic product will outstrip those of Germany and France by 2025, making India the fourth-largest economic power in the world.

How India uses its growing power can either enhance or undermine U.S. interests, Gobarev argues. But U.S. clumsiness has led India to pursue a "Russia-India-China nexus aimed at preventing U.S. global domination." The backbone of this trilateral axis is military collaboration.

New Delhi's overtures to Moscow and Beijing can be circumvented if the United States builds a U.S.-Indian partnership, Gobarev says. India could then play a vital role in ensuring stability in the Persian Gulf and act as a strategic counterweight to China. India has already demonstrated its willingness to assert itself globally, Gobarev says, and is developing the military capabilities-including a powerful navy and strategic missiles-to buttress its great power aspirations.

But if the United States wants to have India as a friend, Gobarev says, it must accept India into the club of nuclear states and enthusiastically endorse New Delhi's bid for permanent membership in the U.N. Security Council. "Making U.S. relations with India truly beneficial to America will require political wisdom, courage and vision," he argues. "The current bankrupt U.S. policy will merely extend stagnation in relations to the point of irrevocably losing India."

"India as a World Power: Changing Washington's Myopic Policy "