News Release

August 2, 2004

Media Contact: (202) 789-5200

Despite new terror warning, thwarting attacks proves difficult
Greater spying capability within al Qaeda needed

WASHINGTON--The terror alert level was raised Sunday to "orange" for New York City, Washington and Newark, N.J. amid credible terrorist threats to financial buildings there. Charles V. Peņa, director of defense policy studies, made the following comments:

"The latest raising of the terror threat level from yellow to orange at least is more specific than previous times--now, with specific targets, the threat apparently does not affect the entire country. This is a more prudent use of the color-coded system. Although there was information about possible targets, because there is no specific information about the timing of an attack, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge encouraged people to go about their business, which seems like more of the same 'don't worry, be happy' approach associated with previous threat level changes and terrorist warnings. If specific buildings are known targets, increasing security is not a guarantee that an attack will be prevented, so how safe is it for people to be in those buildings? When the government had previous intelligence about specific airline flights as targets, those flights were cancelled rather than increasing security and allowing passengers to fly.

"And this demonstrates the difficulty of defending against terrorist attacks without specific information about planned attacks. Part of the problem for the Department of Homeland Security is that while the sources of intelligence used to raise the threat level may be credible, there is no way to verify the information itself because, according to most terrorism experts, the United States currently does not have human spying capability inside the al Qaeda terrorist network to corroborate other intelligence indicators. Until that capability is realized, trying to defend against terrorist attacks is best summed up by what the IRA once told the British government after a failed attempt to kill Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher: 'Remember, we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always.'"

Peņa is available for media interviews.

Homeland Security: Follow the Bouncing Ball, by Charles V. Peņa