March 9, 2000

Intervention in East Timor military crisis would be counterproductive
United States should allow regional powers to resolve the conflict, scholar says

The United States must continue to resist intense pressure to intervene in the East Timor military crisis, writes the author of a Cato Institute study released today.

Australia, Japan, members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) governments and American foreign policy activists have urged America to take decisive action to avoid what they say could be a crisis resembling that of Yugoslavia. Leon T. Hadar, a research fellow in foreign policy studies at Cato and a Washington-based journalist who covers international politics and economics, counters the assumption that the restrained American response has had a calming effect on the crisis.

"The surprisingly low-key U.S. involvement in resolving the East Timor crisis averted a Kosovo-like intervention and reduced the danger that the United States would become the focus for anti-Western sentiment in Indonesia and elsewhere in Southeast Asia," Hadar writes.

Growing separatist violence in the Indonesian archipelago indicates that disintegration of the country is possible, although Hadar says it is not inevitable, considering that political leaders in Jakarta are offering reforms that would create a more democratic and federal political system. Proponents of intervention contend that U.S. diplomatic and military action is a moral and strategic imperative to pressure Indonesia’s Javanese political elite to recognize the right of self-determination of Aceh and other provinces. An assertive U.S. role, the proponents argue, is needed to prevent the threat to America’s East Asian allies that could result from the disintegration of Indonesia and from China’s alleged intention to exploit such turmoil. Hadar finds, however, that "U.S. military intervention in the growing civil strife would only encourage secessionist movements in Aceh, Maluku, Irian Jaya and other provinces to refrain from reaching agreements that could provide those provinces with more political autonomy."

Hadar argues that Australia, Japan and ASEAN have been excessively timid in dealing with the growing turmoil, hoping that the United States would take action. He concludes that the United States should maintain its detached military and diplomatic approach to end the "free-riding mentality" of its East Asian allies and help the region create a stable regional balance of power.

"Averting a 'New Kosovo' in Indonesia: Opportunities and Pitfalls for the United States"