News Release

January 26, 2005

Media Contact: (202) 789-5200

Cato experts available to discuss Iraqi elections and U.S. exit strategy

WASHINGTON--Cato experts are available to comment on Sunday's election in Iraq. In advance of the election, their comments are as follows:

Patrick Basham, Cato Institute, senior fellow:

"The January 30 election represents an important stage in Iraq's political development. For Iraq's Shia majority, a popularly elected legislature dominated by Shiites will add credibility to the reconstruction project.

"The critical question, however, is not what happens on January 30 but what happens over the coming months. The Bush administration soon will discover that democratization is a marathon, not a sprint. The long-term survival of democratic institutions requires a pluralistic political culture rooted in liberal norms and values. Unfortunately, that foundation does not currently exist in Iraq.

"Widespread Sunni opposition to the election will disenfranchise this formerly powerful minority and render the new government illegitimate in Sunni eyes. Hence, there is a very real prospect of more, rather than less, violence after January 30. Only a concerted effort on the part of both Shia and Sunni leaders to broker a political accommodation between these historically hostile groups can prevent this partial election from producing a stillborn democracy."

Can Iraq Be Democratic?, by Patrick Basham

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Christopher Preble, Cato Institute, director of foreign policy studies:

"The Iraqi elections are one of several milestones signifying the transition from a dictatorship to a democracy--but they do not, by themselves, reduce the risks to U.S. troops or the costs to U.S. taxpayers. Violence leading up to, and in the immediate aftermath of, the elections may increase. The election results may also increase Iranian influence within Iraq, with uncertain prospects for U.S. security.

"U.S. policy going forward should focus on ending the U.S. military presence in Iraq. This troop presence undermines the legitimacy of the Iraqi government, even one that has received a popular mandate in an election, because the government is presumed to be beholden to a foreign power. Accordingly, the United States should encourage Iraqis to participate in the political process, and should pledge to work with the new government on a timetable for military withdrawal.

"Iraqis must go to the polls confident that their actions are contributing to the eventual end of the occupation which they have come to hate. If they believe that they are merely doing the U.S. bidding, they are likely to stay home."

Exiting Iraq: Why the U.S. Must End the Military Occupation and Renew the War against Al Qaeda, Cato Institute, Christopher Preble, director.

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Charles V. Peña, Cato Institute, director of defense policy studies:

"Barring some unforeseen catastrophic event, elections will be held on January 30, but the result is not likely to be the kind of democracy the Bush administration had envisioned when it first decided to depose Saddam Hussein. In an April 2003 news conference, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld rejected the idea of Iraq becoming an Islamic theocracy. Yet the likely outcome will be a Shia-dominated government influenced by religious parties. Thus, the Koran rather than the writings of Jefferson and Madison will be the likely blueprint for Iraq's first elected government. So, democracy in Iraq may end up being a case of `be careful what you wish for.'"

Iraq: The Wrong War, by Charles V. Peña

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For more on Iraq, please visit Cato's Iraq page.

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