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Cato Daily Dispatch for October 1, 2002

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(Links to outside sources were active as of the date of this dispatch; however, not all news sources maintain links to current stories indefinitely. Some links also may require registration.)

CBO: Iraq War Would Cost up to $9 Billion a Month

The Associated Press reports that fighting a full-scale war with Iraq would cost up to $9 billion a month, according to congressional budget experts. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that deploying U.S. forces to the Persian Gulf would cost from $9 billion to $13 billion, and that the monthly cost of combat by either heavy ground or air forces would be $6 billion to $9 billion.

Also, two prominent Senate Republicans called on President Bush yesterday to build an international coalition before striking Iraq, setting the stage for a lively and divisive debate this week over the administration's strategy to enforce weapons inspections and topple Saddam Hussein, reports The Washington Post.

Sens. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) and Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) yesterday lobbied Bush to agree explicitly to work more closely with U.S. allies to eliminate Hussein's nuclear, chemical and biological capabilities.

In "Top Ten Reasons Not To 'Do' Iraq," Ivan Eland, Cato's director of defense policy studies, argues against war with Iraq and suggests that the cost of war would be a huge strain on the economy.

Eland writes, "At a time of economic sluggishness and of red ink for the U.S. government, an invasion and long-term occupation of Iraq could cost billions of dollars, bust the budget and throw the U.S. economy into a tailspin. The Gulf War Cost $80 billion (in 2002 dollars). Because the United States would probably be faced with a long occupation of Iraq to stabilize the country after the invasion, the cost is likely to be higher this time around. And unlike the Gulf War, no financial support from other nations can be expected to defray the costs."

EU Agrees to Exempt United States from International Criminal Court

The New York Times reports that the 15 nations of the European Union agreed yesterday to exempt American soldiers and government officials from prosecution for war crimes at the International Criminal Court, an issue that had troubled trans-Atlantic relations for several months.

The compromise, reached at a meeting of European Union foreign ministers, came close to the blanket immunity for American government employees sought by the Bush administration, although European officials emphasized that in their view it did not undermine the court, which the administration has opposed.

The deal that the 15 governments agreed to prevents them from extraditing American government employees accused of war crimes to the court, on the condition that the United States government guarantee that such a suspect would be tried in an American court.

In "Reasonable Doubt: The Case Against the Proposed International Criminal Court," Foreign Policy Analyst Gary T. Dempsey explains that "the court threatens to diminish America's sovereignty, produce arbitrary and highly politicized 'justice,' and grow into a jurisdictional leviathan."

Torricelli Quits New Jersey Senate Race

Sen. Robert G. Torricelli (D-N.J.), his support eroding rapidly over his ethics violations, unexpectedly pulled out of his race for reelection today, clearing the way for state officials to name another candidate as early as Tuesday for what has become the Democrats most imperiled Senate seat, The Washington Post reports.

"I will not be responsible for the loss of the Democratic majority in the United States Senate," an emotional and sometimes tearful Torricelli said at a packed news conference at the state capitol here late this afternoon. "I will not allow it to happen."

State party officials said they would poll the Democratic state committee overnight before naming a replacement, and Democrats said they would petition a New Jersey court to have Torricelli's name removed from the November ballot. Republicans said they would challenge the Democrats in court, arguing that under state law it is too late to replace Torricelli on the ballot, and the issue is likely to be in front of the state Supreme Court soon.

John Samples, director of the Cato Institute's Center for Representative Government, and Patrick Basham, senior fellow at the center argue in "Election 2002 and the Problems of American Democracy" that in the midterm elections next month, "partisan control of the Senate and House of Representatives could easily change hands, which makes each potentially competitive race important to national policy and politics."

Jonathan Block, editor, jblock@cato.org