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Cato Daily Dispatch for April 21, 2003

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Bush Aides Leaning Toward Quick Exit From Iraq
Private Manned Spacecraft Unveiled
Iraq Victory Could Boost Rumsfeld's Stature

Bush Aides Leaning Toward Quick Exit From Iraq

"Confronting cost estimates of at least $20 billion a year and fears that Iraq could become permanently dependent on a U.S. military presence, senior officials in the White House and Pentagon are questioning the Bush administration's most ambitious, long-term plans for Iraq's reconstruction," The Washington Post reports.

"These officials are leaning toward a quick exit from a country that U.S.-led forces conquered in less than a month. The administration remains committed to repairing and rebuilding war-damaged infrastructure, in many cases to standards considerably higher than before the war started, a senior defense official said. Indeed, San Francisco-based Bechtel Group was just awarded an initial $34.6 million contract to rebuild airports, water and electricity systems, roads and railroads."

"But the far larger task of ensuring that Iraq emerges as a representative democracy friendly to U.S. interests and operating with a free-market economy would be left to an Iraqi interim authority, which could control key aspects of Iraqi governance within months."

That could be much easier said than done, according to Director of Foreign Policy Studies Christopher Preble in "A Democratic Iraq May Not Be Friendly to U.S." Preble writes, "In short, if a democratic election, reflecting the honest and freely expressed wishes of the Iraqi people, produces a leader deemed insufficiently committed to Washington's goals, the Bush administration will be forced to affirm or reject its alleged attachment to the principle of democracy."

Private Manned Spacecraft Unveiled

"Aircraft designer Burt Rutan unveiled Friday a fully-built launch system that, if flights outside the atmosphere prove successful, would be the first private manned space program," MSNBC reports. "Both the spacecraft, called SpaceShipOne, and its launch platform, a futuristic jet known as the White Knight, were developed and built in secret and have already begun tests at lower altitudes."

"One possible key to SpaceShipOne's success is its eligibility for the X Prize, a $10 million bounty for any private firm that can build a reusable manned space vehicle, fly it to the suborbital altitude of 62 miles and then repeat the mission within two weeks. Considered a key litmus test for the viability of manned commercial space flight, the X Prize remains unclaimed after nearly a decade."

The new Cato book, Space: The Free-Market Frontier, includes chapters from leading experts, including Apollo XI Astronaut Buzz Aldrin and Gregg Maryniak, executive director of the X Prize Foundation, who analyze how we can move from the current situation of limited access to space and truly make space a place where people can work, play, and live.

Iraq Victory Could Boost Rumsfeld's Stature

"The swift victory in Iraq, with relatively low casualties, is seen by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's supporters as validation that future wars can be won with more covert operatives to gather intelligence, a more agile force, more sophisticated equipment and a willingness to strike first," according to The New York Times.

"James R. Schlesinger, a defense secretary under President Richard M. Nixon and President Gerald R. Ford, said Iraq could 'make pre-emption easier, the barrier lower.' Although that might not translate into more preventive wars, Mr. Schlesinger said, 'What has been demonstrated here is the great American advantage in technology that can be exploited on the field of battle.'

"Mr. Rumsfeld is likely to use it to sell a military overhaul, which has faced opposition in Congress and in parts of the military. Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker who sometimes advises the defense secretary, said Mr. Rumsfeld had a rare opportunity to restructure the Pentagon. 'He will be able to focus on the building with the authority unmatched by a secretary of defense since George Marshall,' Mr. Gingrich said."

On Wednesday, Cato will host a half-day conference entitled "Defense Transformation: Moving Forward or Stuck in the Past?", focusing on transformation as well as defense spending. The conference will feature experts from Cato as well as from the Center for Defense Information, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security.

Jonathan Block, editor, jblock@cato.org