Growing Prosperity and Knowledge Aid Space Exploration

There has never been a better time to be alive on this planet. While many measures of wellbeing are already on a positive trajectory, humanity’s innate curiosity and enterprising spirit continue to push many individuals to seek the stars. The Rosetta mission’s successful comet landing was just the latest development. Privately-funded initiatives, such as SpaceX and Mars One, are taking the lead on a bolder project: a mission to Mars. Greater availability of knowledge and resources is enabling ever-more ambitious space exploration.

Successful space exploration requires expertise. Today, more people pursue advanced degrees globally, many of them in critical fields like physics, math, computer science, geology, and engineering. Furthermore, scientific knowledge compounds over time, and so each generation understands more than the last.

With a higher quantity and quality of scientists, mathematicians, and engineers than at any point in history, humankind is better equipped than ever to tackle the complex challenges of extraterrestrial travel.

Space exploration also requires a tremendous investment of resources. Throughout most of history, even if humankind had possessed the technical knowledge for space travel, scarcity would have prohibited the endeavor. Fortunately, wealth and prosperity are rising rapidly while poverty is in decline. Increasing abundance makes it possible to take on previously unthinkable projects like space exploration. 

Increasing abundance and scientific advancement are expanding humanity’s capacity to pursue ambitious undertakings. Not only has there never been a better time to be alive on this planet, but, thanks to growing prosperity and knowledge, there has also never been a better time to attempt exploration beyond Earth.  

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The One Statistic Climate Catastrophists Don’t Want You to Know

Alex Epstein’s long-anticipated book, The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels, published by Penguin, comes out today! I reviewed it as, “simply the best popular-market book about climate, environmental policy, and energy that I have read.  Laymen and experts alike will be boggled by Epstein’s clarity.”

Alex recently sent us a brief essay based upon material in the book. Alex Epstein is President and Founder of the Center for Industrial Progress—an organization sowing the seeds of energy enthusiasm to counter the tide of climate alarmism. We asked Alex to share a few thoughts with our readers here at Cato; find them below.

If you are in Washington, you might want to meet Alex. He will be giving a Hill Briefing in B-369 Rayburn at 9am on Friday, November 21.


If you ever get asked the vague but morally-charged question “Do you believe in climate change?” someone is trying to put something over on you.

Climate change is a constant of nature and everyone agrees that fossil fuels have some impact on our naturally variable, volatile, and often vicious climate.

The question is whether it will have a catastrophic impact—one so bad it justifies restricting the only practical way to get energy in the foreseeable future to the 3 billion people who have next to none of it: fossil fuels. (No country relies on the sun and wind for energy, but rich countries can afford to pay tens or hundreds of billions to install and accommodate allegedly virtuous wind turbines and solar panels on their grids.)

The real issue is climate catastrophe. I’m not a climate-change skeptic. I’m a climate catastrophe skeptic—and here’s one graph that shows why you should be, too.

No, it’s not showing temperatures have gone up half a degree in the 80 years we’ve used a lot of fossil fuels, which is barely more than they went up the prior 80 years. Nor does it show temperatures have flattened in the past eighteen years—while  the world’s leading climate catastrophists predicted dramatic, accelerating, runaway warming. Dr. James Hansen predicted that temperatures would increase between two-and-a-half and five degrees in 20 years!

Okay, I’ll show that graph, too—here it is:

Police Misconduct: The Worst Case in October

Over at Cato’s Police Misconduct website we have identified the worst case for the month of October.

The worst police misconduct of October goes to the officers who shot David Hooks in his own home during a drug raid based on an invalid warrant and the tip of an informant who was allegedly high on meth.  The informant, Rodney Garrett, had just stolen a vehicle from the Hooks’ home when he was either arrested or turned himself into the police (reports vary).  Garrett told police that the 20g bag of meth he had had been stolen from Hooks’ pickup truck.

That same night, the Laurens County Drug Unit pushed through a warrant based primarily on Garrett’s word, and at 10:55 pm, executed a no-knock warrant despite the fact that the warrant did not authorize one–at a home that the police knew had just previously been burglarized two nights earlier. Hooks’ wife Teresa saw armed, hooded figures in black rushing towards the back door and woke her husband, thinking the burglars had returned.  David Hooks got his gun, and when the SWAT team knocked in the back door without announcing their presence, he didn’t even have the opportunity to get a shot off before officers fired between 16 and 18 rounds, killing him.

Some of the rounds were shot blindly through a wall at Hooks, without regard for whom or what they were firing at and killing. As you might expect from a search warrant based almost entirely on the tip of a meth addict who may or may not have been high when giving it, a 44-hour search of the Hooks home produced absolutely no contraband whatsoever.

David Hooks was a successful businessman who ran a construction firm that contracted with the U.S. government.  He had passed numerous security clearances and background checks, but on the word of a thief and meth addict, he was reduced to just another casualty in the war on drugs. Additional background here.

Nothing New, as China “Intends” to Cap Emissions

Most every paper in the country is trumpeting today that China has finally agreed to limit its emissions of carbon dioxide, gutting the principal objection of people opposed to unilateral and expensive reductions in ours. 

Too bad it’s not true.

According to the official pronouncement, all China said was that they “intend” to cap their emissions “around 2030”. Anything new here?  In November, 2009, prior to the (failed) UN climate fest in Copenhagen, they announced their “intention” to reduce their emissions per unit economic output (called “carbon intensity”)  by 40-45% by 2020. Since then, things haven’t appreciably changed—so they now have five years to execute this huge drop, which isn’t going to happen.

The road to global warming is paved with China’s good “intentions”.

We also note that they “intend” to derive 20 per cent of their energy from non-carbon based sources by 2030. No doubt working late into last night (as did we; this story broke at 10:30), the estimable Roger Pielke, Jr., has already calculated that this means that the Chinese will have to put the equivalent of one nuclear power plant per week on line between now and then. As Roger wryly noted, “some people take it seriously”.

Don’t. But we should take seriously President Obama’s announcement that the US will double its scheduled emissions reductions by 2025. Thanks to the 2007 Supreme Court (5-4) decision that incredulously said that the 1992 Clean Air Act Amendments gave the President the power to command and control virtually our entire energy economy, he indeed can do what he just said.

It would take an act of Congress to prevent him, an act that would most certainly be vetoed, without the necessary two-thirds majority to override.

One might think that he would care about what the voters think—but that’s not the case. A careful read of election returns reveals that the cap-and-trade, and not health care, cost his party control of the House in 2010, and, in 2014, the epicenter of electoral carnage was in the coal mining regions of Kentucky and West Virginia, costing his party the Senate.

While China has good “intentions” we get real “unemployment”. Such a deal!

Labor Unions, Not the Tea Party, Are Leading the Fight against Obama’s Trade Agenda

This week is the #StopFastTrack Week of Action, an attempt by the anti-globalization movement to coordinate protests around the world against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a potential free trade agreement between the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries.  The reason they’re doing it now is to influence lawmakers in the lead up to Congress’s lame duck session, during which many in Washington hope/fear that Congress will vote on a bill to grant “trade promotion authority” (also known as “fast track”) to help the Obama administration complete the TPP negotiations.

Spearheading the effort is the AFL-CIO.  In addition to asking supporters to call their member of Congress, the unions have also paid for ads at the DC metro station on Capitol Hill, obviously meant to reach congressional staffers during their commute.

Understandably considering the source, the ads have a very union-like feel to them.  Lonely hardhats on the floor of a shuttered factory, middle-aged people lamenting that they’re not being paid enough, etc.  Here’s a typical example showing a forlorn-looking young man who’s upset about income inequality:

The “1%” rhetoric should be quite familiar to most Americans by now as the standard jargon of the ideological left when they rail against all forms of voluntary commerce.  It’s no surprise to see it employed by labor unions in their crusade against free trade. 

Organized labor’s opposition to trade is nothing new.  So, in order to get more attention this year, labor groups have been readily pointing out that even some Republicans are opposed to fast track.  In particular, they are referring to a soi-disant “tea party” group that claims fast track will enable “Obamatrade” to destroy American sovereignty and jobs.   That group takes a very different approach with its messaging:

obama_promises_4

The news media have run with the narrative that a right-wing insurgency against fast track could threaten the U.S. trade agenda.

The problem with this narrative is that it is just wrong.  Scott Lincicome and I have written a comprehensive take-down of the attempt by a tiny protectionist wing of the GOP to paint its anti-trade agenda as part of the tea party movement.  Yes, there are conservatives who don’t like free trade, but the tea party movement is all about holding Republican members of Congress accountable when they stray from (most) limited government principles.  As such, the members of Congress most associated with the tea party movement have the best records in support of free trade

Trying to get Republicans to oppose free trade by wearing a tri-corner hat and shrieking “OBAMA!!!” merely plays to the negative views of the tea party held by many in the news media.

There are real obstacles to liberalizing trade in the United States.  The greatest obstacle is the inescapable reality that politicians benefit from rigging the system in favor of narrow constituencies seeking protection.  Protectionists get ideological cover mostly from the anti-globalist left but also from the nationalist right.  Thankfully, that nationalist impulse is largely in abeyance as a force against free trade in Congress at the moment, and “Obamatrade” notwithstanding, the tea party isn’t about to bring it back.

Administration Drastically Lowers the Bar for Second Year of Enrollment

Broken promises and lowered expectations littered the first year of the Affordable Care Act. When the law was being debated, Obama promised the law would cut health care premiums for a typical family by $2,500. Instead, premiums everywhere continued to rise, in some places they skyrocketed. Supporters claimed the law would reduce the deficit, citing a score from the Congressional Budget Office. More recent calculations with a full ten years of implementation show that it will increase budget deficits. The now infamous “if you like your health care plan, you can keep it” pledge, which Politifact dubbed its “lie of the year” turned out to be a fabrication as millions of people received cancellation notices. The administration has tried to shift focus from past promises on cost containment and premium savings to the expansion of insurance coverage. Even in this area, the Affordable Care Act looks like it will fail to meet its goals, and the administration is already scrambling to try to temper expectations.

At an event at the Center for American Progress earlier this week, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell revealed that the administration had drastically lowered their exchange enrollment target. She divulged “[t]he number we’re going to aim for this year is 9.1 million.” This is a far cry from the Congressional Budget Office’s April projection of 13 million. The new goal for next year  is only 70 percent of the initial projection, which showed exchange enrollment jumping 7 million in 2015. The new target only anticipates a net increase of 2 million, a drastic reduction.       

In a related brief, HHS cited a slower than expected shift from employer-sponsored insurance and off-exchange enrollment as the reason for the lower projection. The brief suggests that it will take five years instead of three to ramp up to the eventual enrollment level of 25 million. This could mean that exchange enrollment could not reach its peak until 2019 and will likely fall short of initial expectations for years to come.

Secretary Burwell also sought to tamp down expectations for the website, saying that it “will have things that won’t go right. We will have outages, we will have downtime.” While the website will probably function better than last time, the second round of open enrollment faces many serious obstacles.

Most of the people most interested in signing up already did last year. Convincing those still uninsured to sign up could be more of a challenge. The first enrollment period had more outreach and coverage, whereas the Obamacare story potential enrollees are most likely to see now is news that the Supreme Court agreed to hear a case that could invalidate the majority of federal subsidies. Automatic renewal for people already enrolled poses another problem. If they do nothing, many people could keep the same plan but have to pay much more due to the way the law calculates subsidies. On top of that, the second open enrollment is only half as long as the first, so people have less time to visit the website and enroll through the exchange.

The first real indicator for how the second round is going will be how the renewal period goes for people who signed up last year. Last year there was a surge in enrollment at the end of the enrollment period. If people run into problems with automatic renewal or have difficulty using the website that could deter new potential enrollees.

The law’s past failures have led to broken promises and missed goals in areas like cost savings, premium reduction and improving the quality of care people receive. One of the only metrics the administration could point to in the past was that exchange enrollment in the first year actually met stated goals despite the website’s terrible launch. Now it seems that the law will fall short in enrollment too.

Open enrollment begins next week, and the recent efforts by the administration to lower expectations so close to the start date do not inspire much confidence.

Highway Bill: The Unmentionable Option

In an article about federal highway legislation yesterday, the Washington Post illustrated the art of advocacy journalism cloaked as news reporting. The article explored different options for raising federal taxes $100 billion to fund state highways. It quotes three transportation lobbyists and included scare lines about the supposed consequences of not raising taxes (“… hundreds of thousands of construction jobs put at risk…”).

The article does not mention that spending cuts are an option for the upcoming highway bill. Everyone agrees that there is a large gap in the Highway Trust Fund (HTF), but gaps can be closed either by tax hikes or spending cuts. Yet the “transportation advocates” the Post talked to agreed, “until there is consensus on finding more money, transportation may be doomed to limp along in perpetual crisis.”

Nonsense. As I testified here, federal spending cuts would balance the HTF and solve the crisis, while spurring greater efficiency and innovation in U.S. transportation as the states played a larger role. The Post did not bother to explore that option, despite support from conservatives in Congress, prominent think tanks, and independent transportation experts.

In the election, Congress swung decidedly in a small-government direction, but the Post’s reporting did not reflect that reality, and instead presented only the lobbyist point of view. The Post’s silence on the spending-cut option is all the more striking because the newspaper admits that it would be very difficult to raise transportation taxes due to political and public opposition.

It will be interesting to see how Congress closes the HTF gap before the May expiration of the current highway bill. I hope that we have a robust debate on all the options and that the Washington Post changes course and presents its readers with a more balanced perspective.