You Ought to Have a Look: Antarctic Ice, Summer Thunderstorms, and Cold Winters

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

In this week’s You Ought to Have a Look, we’re going to catch up on some new climate science that hasn’t gotten the deserved attention—for reasons soon to be obvious.

First up is a new study comparing climate model projections with observed changes in the sea ice extent around Antarctica.

While everyone seems to talk about the decline in the sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere, considerably less discussion focuses on the increase in sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere. If it is mentioned at all, it is usually quickly followed by something like “but this doesn’t disprove global warming, it is consistent with it.”

But, even the folks delivering these lines probably realize that the latter bit is a stretch.

In fact, the IPCC and others have been trying downplay this inconvenient truth ever since folks first started to note the increase. And the excuses are getting more involved.

A new study pretty much exposes the emperor.

Good News from Hungary

In a recent article for the Weekly Standard, I noted that freedom in Hungary was under attack. In the past several years, the Prime Minister Viktor Orban has tightened its control over media, harassed civil society organizations, politicized the judiciary, nationalized $14 billion worth of assets from private pension funds, and populated the board of Hungary’s central bank by appointees of the ruling party, Fidesz. Mr Orban – who was once seen as a pro-market, liberal reformer – has also become Vladimir Putin’s most reliable partner in the EU, having hosted him for a working visit just last week.

But not all Hungarians are applauding as the country descends deeper into what could be called ‘goulash authoritarianism’. In fact, the parliamentary by-election in the county of Veszprem on Sunday has brought a very encouraging piece of news. A Fidesz candidate was defeated by an independent candidate, Zoltan Kesz, endorsed by a coalition of left-of-center parties.

“The left-right divide has been turned on its head in Hungary; the relevant distinction here is between the pro-Western and pro-Eastern political parties,” says Mr Kesz, referring to Mr Orban’s geopolitical allegiances. It should also be said that Mr Kesz is no ordinary politician. An activist and English teacher, he is the founder of Hungary’s premier libertarian think-tank, the Free Market Foundation. Interestingly, given the toxic political and ideological environment in Hungary, the organization has become known as the leading voice against racism in the country, and much of its efforts have been aimed to counter the rise of political forces such as the xenophobic Jobbik party, which is currently the third largest political force in the country.

Mr Kesz’ election is significant because it brings an end to the narrow supermajority, which Fidesz enjoyed in the Hungarian parliament since the election last year. In 2013, the parliament passed a number of controversial constitutional amendments, and many feared that the unchecked dominance of Fidesz could herald the demise of Hungarian democracy. While Mr Kesz’ electoral victory assuages those fears somewhat, he will be fighting an uphill battle to get his country back on track.

We Should Only Trust the Government as Far as We Can Throw It

Vietnam vet Robert Rosebrock is 72 years old, but he’s still got enough fight in him to stand up for what he believes in. The Veteran’s Administration of Greater Los Angeles (VAGLA) and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit would prefer his fight to be in vain.

Rosebrock’s fight here is a protest against VAGLA’s use of a parcel of land deeded to the U.S. government for the care of homeless veterans for purposes other than that purpose.  For example, VAGLA leased parts of the land to a private school, an entertainment company, and a soccer club, and occasionally used it for hosting events. Every Sunday for 66 weeks, Rosebrock hung at least one and as many as 30 U.S. flags from a border fence on the VA property that he believed was being misused.

After seeing a celebrity gala event on the property one Sunday afternoon, Rosebrock started hanging flags with the stars down, signifying dire distress to life and property—the distress faced by LA’s homeless veterans. At this point, VAGLA started enforcing its policy against “displaying of placards or posting of materials on bulletin boards or elsewhere on [VA] property.” When Rosebrock continued, believing his First Amendment rights would protect him, he was issued six criminal citations. He then stopped hanging his flag upside down but was later allowed to hang it right-side-up—a clear if unusual example of viewpoint-based speech discrimination that violates the First Amendment.

“Slipshod Work, Faulty Analysis, And Statistical Sleight Of Hand” At the EEOC

We’ve reported earlier in this space on how the Obama administration’s Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) keeps getting slapped down by federal judges over what we called its “long-shot lawsuits and activist legal positions.” Now the Fourth Circuit has weighed in on a high-profile employment screening case from Maryland – and it too has given the EEOC a good thwacking, in this case over “pervasive errors and utterly unreliable analysis” in the expert testimony it marshaled to show the employer’s liability. Those are the words of a three-judge panel consisting of Judge Roger Gregory, originally appointed to the court by Bill Clinton before being re-appointed by his successor George W. Bush, joined by Obama appointee Albert Diaz and GWB appointee G. Steven Agee. 

The case arose from the EEOC’s much-publicized initiative of going after employers that use criminal background checks in hiring, which the agency insists often have improper disparate impact on minority applicants and have not been validated as necessary for business reasons. It sued the Freeman Cos., a provider of convention and exposition services, over its screening methods, but Freeman won after district court judge Roger Titus shredded the EEOC’s proffered expert evidence as “laughable,” “unreliable,” and “mind-boggling.” The EEOC appealed to the Fourth Circuit. 

If it was expecting vindication there, it was very wrong. Agreeing with Judge Titus, Judge Gregory cited the “pervasive errors and utterly unreliable analysis” of the commission’s expert report, by psychologist Kevin Murphy. “The sheer number of mistakes and omissions in Murphy’s analysis renders it ‘outside the range where experts might reasonably differ,’” which meant it could not have been an abuse of discretion for Judge Titus to exclude it. 

Strong language, yet Judge Agee chose to write a separate concurrence “to address my concern with the EEOC’s disappointing litigation conduct.” Noting a pattern in multiple cases, Agee faulted the commission’s lawyers for circling the wagons on behalf of its statistical methods despite repeated judicial hints that it needed to strengthen its quality control. “Despite Murphy’s record of slipshod work, faulty analysis, and statistical sleight of hand, the EEOC continues on appeal to defend his testimony.” If the agency doesn’t watch out, exasperated judges might start imposing more sanctions against it. 

Incidentally, as a counterpoint to the EEOC’s bullheadedness, the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights a year back did a briefing program on employee screening and criminal background checks that tries to include an actual balance of views. You can read and download it here.

Government Sends Wrong Tax Form to Nearly One Million Obamacare Enrollees

Fresh off another victory lap last week, Obamacare supporters awoke last Friday to the news that the government had given nearly one million exchange enrollees incorrect tax forms that could significantly affect their tax returns. 800,000 enrollees in the federal exchange and roughly 100,000 in California were given the wrong forms, called 1095-As, which provide a monthly account of the premium subsidies exchange enrollees receive. The government uses that information to determine that the subsidy amounts are correct (although a pending Supreme Court case raises questions about the legality of any subsidies offered through the federal exchange). Enrollees using the wrong information when filing their taxes would make it impossible for the government to verify that they got the right amount of subsidies.

Government officials will now try to remedy their mistake by sending out new forms to the affected customers. These tax documents contained the wrong price for the ‘benchmark plan’, the second-lowest cost silver plan available that is used to calculate the exchange subsidy amount. A post on the HealthCare.gov blog explains that the erroneous forms included the benchmark plan premiums for 2015 instead of 2014, which led to the wrong subsidy amount being displayed on the forms people use to file their taxes. The errors are not confined to one area, so incorrect forms were sent throughout the country, making it harder for enrollees to know if they are affected. Those given the wrong form will be able to access their corrected one sometime in early March, according to the report. 50,000 people in this group have already filed their taxes using the incorrect tax information. Officials are now in the process of trying to contact this group, and they will likely have to resubmit their tax returns. Enrollees who already filed will not find much help at HealthCare.gov for now, which only reads: “Additional information will be provided shortly.” Overall, nearly one million exchange enrollees could see delays in getting their income tax refunds, or find that their size of the refund has changed due to corrections in the tax form. Many of these people depend on this tax refund, and unanticipated problems could have significant adverse consequences.

Filing taxes is already a cumbersome and aggravating process. Obamacare has made it even more arduous as people have to attest to having health insurance coverage and how much they receive in exchange subsidies. Even worse, it nearly one in five HealthCare.gov customers was sent the wrong forms, and these people will have to delay filing their taxes, or even resubmit them. While this blunder will not cause the law to spiral out of control, it does reveal the potential for ongoing problems with its implementation. Following the news, HealthCare.gov CEO Kevin Counihan told reporters “We’re not doing any victory laps.” Other Obamacare supporters should take this lesson to heart.

American People Must Tell Politicians No More War

American foreign policy is a bipartisan failure. The U.S. must intervene everywhere all the time, irrespective of consequences?

No matter how disastrous the outcome, promiscuous interventionists insist that the idea was sound. Any problems obviously result from execution, a matter of doing too little:  too few troops engaged, too few foreigners killed, too few nations bombed, too few societies transformed, too few countries occupied, too few years involved, too few dollars spent.

As new conflicts rage across the Middle East, the interventionist caucus’ dismal record has become increasingly embarrassing. Anne-Marie Slaughter, a cheerleader for war in Libya, recently defended her actions after being chided on Twitter for being a war-monger. She had authored a celebratory Financial Times article entitled “Why Libya skeptics were proved badly wrong.” Alas, Slaughter’s Mediterranean adventure looks increasingly foolish.

Slightly more abashed is Samantha Power, one of the Obama administration’s chief Sirens of War. She recently pleaded with the public not to let constant failure get in the way of future wars:  “I think there is too much of, ‘Oh, look, this is what intervention has wrought’ … one has to be careful about overdrawing lessons.” Just because the policy of constant war had been a constant bust, people shouldn’t be more skeptical about a military “solution” for future international problems.

President Barack Obama also appears to be a bit embarrassed by his behavior. The Nobel Peace Prize winner has been as active militarily as his much-maligned predecessor.

Yet in 2013 he admitted that “I was elected to end wars, not to start them.” He sounded like he was trying to convince himself when he added:  “I’ve spent the last four and a half years doing everything I can to reduce our reliance on military power.”

The two parties usually attempt to one-up each other when it comes to reckless overseas intervention. Yet Uncle Sam has demonstrated that he possesses the reverse Midas Touch. Whatever he touches turns to mayhem.

In the Balkans the U.S. replaced ethnic cleansing with ethnic cleansing and set a precedent for Russian intervention in Georgia and Ukraine. In Afghanistan the U.S. rightly defenestrated the Taliban but then spent 13 years unsuccessfully attempting to remake that tribal nation.

Invading Iraq to destroy nonexistent WMDs cost the lives of 4500 Americans and 200,000 Iraqis, wrecked Iraqi society, loosed radical furies now embodied in the Islamic State, and empowered Iran. Bombing Libya prolonged a low-tech civil war killing thousands, released weapons throughout the region, triggered a prolonged power struggle, and offered another home for ISIL killers.

As I point out on Forbes online:  “Not only has virtually every bombing, invasion, occupation, and other interference made problems worse. Almost every new intervention is an attempt to redress problems created by previous U.S. actions. And every new military step is likely, indeed, almost guaranteed, to create even bigger new problems.”

Yet virtually never do foreign policy practitioners admit that things hadn’t gone well. Most of official Washington simply takes the Samantha Power position:  “What, me worry?”

There may have been a mistake or two, but one certainly wouldn’t want to “overdraw” a lesson from these multiple and constant failures. No responsible policymaker would want to admit that even one foreign problem was not America’s responsibility.

Washington’s elite might disagree about details, but believes with absolute certainty that Americans should do everything:  Fight every war, remake every society, enter every conflict, pay every debt, defeat every adversary, solve every problem, and ignore every criticism. Unfortunately, over the last two decades this approach has proved to be an abysmal disaster.

There’s an equally simple alternative. Indeed, the president came up with it:  “don’t do stupid” stuff.  Too bad he failed to practice his own professed policy.

Washington should stop doing stupid things. But only the American people can make that happen. They must start electing leaders committed to not doing “stupid” stuff.

Suing Governments for their Environmental Policy under International Law

Some folks over at Heritage have a new Issues Brief in which they argue for including an Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism in the U.S.-EU trade deal being negotiated right now.  In a nutshell, ISDS lets foreign investors sue host country governments in an international tribunal when they feel certain of their rights have been infringed.

I’ve been critical of ISDS.  I do see the potential that such international rules have for protecting property rights, but I worry about other aspects of the rules.  One issue is that these rules protect the rights only of foreign investors.  Using Venezuela as an example, there’s an assumption that the courts there can’t help much with protecting rights. To some extent, ISDS is a response to that. So, if Exxon feels its operations there have been badly treated by the Venezuelan government, it can use the ISDS mechanism to have recourse to an international tribunal.  However, if a small Venezuelan dry cleaner is being subject to governmental abuse, it’s just out of luck.  To me, that seems problematic.  Focusing on the wealthy seems like a fundamentally unbalanced way to protect property rights.