Climate Modeling Dominates Climate Science

Computer modeling plays an important role in all of the sciences, but there can be too much of a good thing. A simple semantic analysis indicates that climate science has become dominated by modeling. This is a bad thing.

What we did

We found two pairs of surprising statistics. To do this we first searched the entire literature of science for the last ten years, using Google Scholar, looking for modeling. There are roughly 900,000 peer reviewed journal articles that use at least one of the words model, modeled or modeling. This shows that there is indeed a widespread use of models in science. No surprise in this.

However, when we filter these results to only include items that also use the term climate change, something strange happens. The number of articles is only reduced to roughly 55% of the total.

In other words it looks like climate change science accounts for fully 55% of the modeling done in all of science. This is a tremendous concentration, because climate change science is just a tiny fraction of the whole of science. In the U.S. Federal research budget climate science is just 4% of the whole and not all climate science is about climate change.

In short it looks like less than 4% of the science, the climate change part, is doing about 55% of the modeling done in the whole of science. Again, this is a tremendous concentration, unlike anything else in science.

We next find that when we search just on the term climate change, there are very few more articles than we found before. In fact the number of climate change articles that include one of the three modeling terms is 97% of those that just include climate change. This is further evidence that modeling completely dominates climate change research.

Teaching Congress about the Benefits of Base Closures

I spent the latter part of last week on a too-short trip to Alicante, Spain, to present some of my latest work on the reuse of former defense facilities in the United States. The occasion was a conference on “Defence Heritage” – the third since 2012 – hosted by the Wessex Institute (.pdf) in which scholars from more than a dozen countries shared their findings about how various defense installations around the world have been repurposed for everything from recreational parks to educational institutions to centers of business and enterprise.

This sort of research is sorely needed as Congress appears poised to deny the Pentagon’s request to close unneeded or excess bases. It is the fifth time that Congress has told the military that it must carry surplus infrastructure, and continue to misallocate resources where they aren’t needed, in order to protect narrow parochial interests in a handful of congressional districts that might house an endangered facility.

In a cover letter to a new Pentagon report that provides ample justification for the need to close bases, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work explained:

Under current fiscal restraints, local communities will experience economic impacts regardless of a congressional decision regarding BRAC authorization. This has the harmful and unintended consequence of forcing the Military Departments to consider cuts at all installations, without regard to military value. A better alternative is to close or realign installations with the lowest military value. Without BRAC, local communities’ ability to plan and adapt to these changes is less robust and offers fewer protections than under BRAC law.

Work is almost certainly correct. But in my latest post at The National Interest’s The Skeptics, I urge him “and other advocates for another BRAC round” not to “limit themselves to green-eyeshade talk of cost savings and greater efficiency. They must also show how former defense sites don’t all become vast, barren wastelands devoid of jobs and people.”

It obviously isn’t enough to stress the potential savings, even though the savings are substantial. The DoD report estimates that the five BRAC rounds, plus the consolidation of bases in Europe, have generated annual recurring savings of $12.5 billion, and that a new BRAC round would save an additional $2 billion per year, after a six-year implementation period. A GAO study conducted in 2002 concluded that “BRAC savings are real and substantial and are related to cost reduction in key operational areas.”

Members of Congress who are uninterested in such facts, and who remain adamantly opposed to any base closures, anywhere, should consider what has actually happened to many of the bases dealt with during the five BRAC rounds, and the hundreds of other bases closed in the 1950s and 60s, before there was a BRAC. 

They don’t have to go far. They could start by speaking with the Association of Defense Communities and the Pentagon’s Office of Economic Adjustment, who keep track of these stories.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-TX) could visit Austin-Bergstrom International Airport in Austin, Texas. He probably has, many times. The closure of Bergstrom Air Force Base was a thinly disguised blessing for a city that had struggled for years to find an alternative for its inadequate regional airport. Austin-Bergstrom today services millions of passengers, and has won awards for its design and customer service.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Chair of the Senate Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee, might stop by the former Pease Air Force Base in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, during one of her trips home. One of the very first bases closed under the BRAC process, the sprawling site still hosts several massive runways, and the 157th Air Refueling Wing of the Air National Guard. But the base has chiefly been reborn as the Pease International Tradeport, which is now home to over 250 businesses that employ more than 10,000 people.

And both would benefit from a visit to the former Brunswick Naval Air Station in my home state of Maine. They used to launch P-3 submarine-hunting airplanes (pictured), now they host dozens of businesses, including 28 start-ups in a new business incubator, TechPlace, that opened 14 months ago. 

It’s particularly lovely in the summer time, if you don’t mind all the tourists. If they go, Thornberry and Ayotte should talk to some of the people who are responsible for its rapid turnaround, including Steve Levesque, the Executive Director of the Midcoast Regional Redevelopment Authority (MRRA), who contributed a chapter in this forthcoming volume on the renovation and reuse of former military sites, and Jeffrey Jordan, the MRRA’s Deputy Director, who I interviewed in 2014. I’m sure they’d be happy to show HASC and SASC members around Brunswick Landing.

You Ought to Have a Look: Badges, Ratings and Rewards

You Ought to Have a Look is a feature from the Center for the Study of Science posted by Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. (“Chip”) Knappenberger.  While this section will feature all of the areas of interest that we are emphasizing, the prominence of the climate issue is driving a tremendous amount of web traffic.  Here we post a few of the best in recent days, along with our color commentary.

Badges? Do we need these stinking badges?

Need, perhaps not, but apparently some of us actually want them and will go to lengths to get them. We‘re not talking about badges for say, for example, being a Federal Agent At-Large for the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs:

 

(source: Smithsonianmag.org)

But rather badges like these, being given out by the editors of Psychological Journal for being a good data sharer and playing well with others:

A new paper, authored by Mallory Kidwell and colleagues, examined the impact of the Psychological Journal’s badge/award system and found it to be quite effective at getting authors to make their data and material available to others via an open access repository. Compared with four “comparison journals,” the implementation of the badge system at Psychological Journal led to a rapidly rising rate of participation and level of research transparency (Figure 1).

Foreign Policy and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas

The American presidency has accumulated an unprecedented set of institutional advantages in the conduct of foreign policy. Unlike on the domestic side where presidents face an activist and troublesome Congress, the Constitution, the bureaucratic and legal legacies of previous wars, the overreaction to 9/11, and years of assiduous executive branch privilege-claiming now afford the White House great latitude to run foreign policy without interference from Congress.

But one of the most tragic reasons for this situation stems from the abject failure of the marketplace of ideas to check the growth in executive power. In theory, the marketplace of ideas consists of free-wheeling debate over the ends and means of foreign policy and critical analysis of the ongoing execution of foreign policy that help the public and its political leaders to distinguish good ideas from poor ones. Philosophers since Immanuel Kant and John Stuart Mill have championed this dynamic. The Founding Fathers enshrined its logic in the First Amendment. Recent scholarship argues that the marketplace of ideas is central to the democratic peace and the ability of democracies to conduct smarter foreign policies than other nations.

In practice, however, today’s marketplace of ideas falls terribly short of this ideal.

The most famous recent example is the run up to the 2003 Iraq War. The Bush administration used an assortment of half-baked intelligence, exaggerations, and flat out lies about Iraqi WMD programs to urge the public into supporting the war. Shockingly, however, the national debate over the war was muted. Though false and based on flimsy evidence, the Bush administration’s claims received surprisingly little criticism. Reality reasserted itself, of course, as the failure to find any evidence of such programs made it clear that the administration had waged war under false pretenses. Where was the vaunted marketplace of ideas?

In an influential article in International Security written just after the 2003 Iraq War, political scientist Chaim Kaufmann argued that a good deal of the reason for the Bush administration’s ability to sell the war lay in the president’s institutional advantages. As president and Commander in Chief, Bush not only controlled the flow of critical intelligence information, he also enjoyed greater authority in the debate than his critics, allowing him to (falsely) frame the operation as part of the war on terrorism, thus taking advantage of the public’s outrage over the 9/11 attacks.

But Kaufmann (among many others) made another argument about why Bush succeeded: the news media simply failed to do its job. Indeed, after a review of its coverage of the run up to war, the New York Times editorial board took the unusual step of acknowledging it had failed in its core mission: “Looking back, we wish we had been more aggressive in re-examining the claims [about Iraqi WMD] as new evidence emerged – or failed to emerge.”

At this point, one might assume that more than a decade of intervention, chaos, and terrorism in the Middle East would have provided the news media with a powerful set of lessons. These lessons might include things like: scrutinize the basis for intervention; ask hard questions about the plans for what happens after the initial military operation ends, work to appreciate how U.S. actions affect the attitudes and actions of other people, groups, and nations around the world.

Unfortunately it does not appear that the news media has learned much if anything. President Obama has spent eight years talking about withdrawing the United States from the Middle East but has in fact expanded the military footprint of the United States. He has done so without much real debate in the mainstream news about the wisdom of his actions. Tellingly, what debate has occurred has focused on erroneous claims that Obama has appeased our enemies by withdrawing too much.

The National ID Social Season Is Underway

The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators is the umbrella group for DMV bureaucrats across the nation. It’s a non-profit group, but it does more than earnestly educate government officials and the public about the nuances of driver licensing. Since the 1930s, it has advocated for increased government spending on licensing bureaucracy—and it has advocated against driver’s rights. (It’s all discussed in my book Identity Crisis.) That doesn’t mean AAMVA can’t have fun. Indeed, AAMVA’s social season gets underway next week.

You see, AAMVA is a growing business. A decade ago, when the Capitol Hill staffer with lead responsibility for the REAL ID Act came through AAMVA’s revolving door, I noted the dollar-per-driver fee it collects in the Commercial Driver Licensing system. That $13 million in revenue has surely grown since then.

AAMVA’s revenues will grow far more when it runs the back-end of the REAL ID system, potentially pulling in from three-and-a-quarter cents to five cents per driver in the United States. At 210 million licensed drivers, AAMVA could make upwards of ten million dollars per year.

To help that business flow, every year AAMVA holds not one, but five lavish conferences, each of which has its own awards ceremonies aimed at saluting DMV officials and workers. There, AAMVA leadership, vendors, and officials from government agencies both state and federal gather to toast their successes in advancing their cause, including progress in implementating our national ID law, the REAL ID Act.

A New Legal Blow Against Obamacare

The federal district court sitting in D.C. yesterday handed a victory to those who believe in following statutory text, potentially halting the payment of billions of dollars to insurers under the Affordable Care Act’s entitlement “cost-sharing” provisions.

Since January 14, 2014, the Treasury Department has been authorizing payments of reimbursements to insurers providing Obamacare coverage. The problem is that Congress never appropriated the funds for those expenditures, so the transfers constitute yet another executive overreach.

Article I of the Constitution provides quite clearly that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” The “power of the purse” resides in Congress, a principle that implements the overall constitutional structure of the separation of powers and that was noted as an important bulwark against tyranny by Alexander Hamilton in the Federalist 78.

It’s a basic rule that bears repeating: the executive branch cannot disburse funds that Congress has not appropriated.

Accordingly, in a win for constitutional governance, Judge Rosemary Collyer held in House of Representatives v. Burwell that the cost-sharing reimbursements authorized under the ACA’s section 1402 must be appropriated by Congress annually, and are not assumed to be appropriated.

Judge Collyer gave a biting review of the federal government’s argument in the case: “It is a most curious and convoluted argument whose mother was undoubtedly necessity.” The Department of Health and Human Services claimed that another part of the ACA that is a permanent appropriation—section 1401, which provides tax credits—also somehow included a permanent appropriation for Section 1402. Hearkening to the late Justice Scalia’s lyrical prose, Collyer explained that the government was trying to “squeeze the elephant of Section 1402 reimbursements into the mousehole of Section 1401(d)(1).”

Indeed, this ruling is a bit of a feather in Cato’s cap as well. The legal argument that prevailed here—that the section 1402 funds cannot be disbursed without congressional appropriation—first was discussed publicly at a 2014 Cato policy forum. The lawyer who came up with the idea, David Rivkin of BakerHostetler, refined it in conjunction with his colleague Andrew Grossman, also a Cato adjunct scholar who spoke at the forum. After BakerHostetler had to withdraw from the case due to a conflict, George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley (who also spoke at the forum) took over the case.

Judge Collyer stayed her injunction against the Treasury Department pending appeal before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Regardless of how that court decides – as in King v. Burwell, even if there’s a favorable panel, President Obama has stacked the overall deck – the case is likely to end up before the Supreme Court. If Chief Justice Roberts sees this as a technical case (like Hobby Lobby or Zubik/Little Sisters) rather an existential one (like NFIB v. Sebelius or King), the challengers have a shot. But because Democrat-appointed justices simply will not interpret clear law in a way that hurts Obamacare, this case, like so much else, turns on the presidential election and the nominee who fills the current high-court-vacancy.

Whatever happens down that line, Judge Collyer’s succinct ruling makes a powerful statement in favor of constitutional separation of powers as a bulwark for liberty and the rule of law.

Presidential Arrogance on Steroids

“Obama said ‘so sue me.’ The House did, and Obama just lost.” That’s how the Wall Street Journal sub-heads its lead editorial this morning discussing the president’s latest court loss, nailing this most arrogant of presidents who believes he can rule “by pen and phone,” ignoring Congress in the process. With an unmatched record of losses before the Supreme Court, this onetime constitutional law instructor persists in ignoring the Constitution, even when the language is crystal clear.

Article I, section 9, clause 7 of the Constitution provides that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” Not much wiggle room there. So what did the president do? He committed billions of dollars from the Treasury without the approval of Congress. In her opinion yesterday Judge Rosemary Collyer noted, the Journal reports, “that Congress had expressly not appropriated money to reimburse health insurers under Section 1402 of the Affordable Care Act. The Administration spent money on those reimbursements anyway.”

George Washington Law’s Jonathan Turley, lead counsel for the House in this case, House v. Burwell, called yesterday’s decision “a resounding victory not just for Congress but for our constitutional system as a whole. We remain a system based on the principle of the separation of powers and the guarantee that no branch or person can govern alone.”

But don’t expect the president to be any more chastened by this decision than by his many previous losses in the courts. Indeed, as he was smarting from yesterday’s loss he was preparing, the Washington Post reports, to release a letter this morning “directing schools across the nation to provide transgender students with access to suitable facilities—including bathrooms and locker rooms—that match their chosen gender identity.” And where did he get his authority for that? Not from Congress. It’s based on his reading of Title IX of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 that for over half a century no one else has seen, doubtless because Title IX prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex, not chosen sex. Reading Title IX as we want it to be is of a piece with reading the Constitution that way too. Thus do objectivity and the rule of law fade into the rule of man.