A Twitter Conversation with Trump’s Trade Adviser

Recently, Donald Trump announced a team of economic advisers. One of them is Dan DiMicco of Nucor Steel. When DiMicco offered up a tweet about trade, I thought this might be an opportunity to engage him and try to learn more about Trump’s trade views, which are protectionist in tone but lack much detail. Here’s how the exchange went, minus a couple tweets that I left out to keep this post shorter.  (Spoiler: He didn’t seem to know much about the substance of trade law!) 

In response to his initial tweet, I asked for some specifics on how Trump’s trade deals would be different from existing trade deals: 

He referred me to the “7 point plan” Trump had previously announced:

So, I picked one of the points – Trump’s suggestion to renegotiate NAFTA – and followed up with a request for details:

Thai Military Junta Rigs Constitutional Referendum, Preserves Dictatorship

The Thai people voted on the latest constitution pushed by the reigning military junta. By banning any opposition, General/Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha won approval to continue his dictatorship from behind the scenes.

For decades military coups were frequent and the court, along with the military, bureaucracy, and business, long dominated democratic politics. Well-connected elites prospered while the rural poor languished, seemingly forgotten by their own government.

That came to a dramatic end in 2001 when flamboyant business mogul Shinawatra Thaksin (the latter his given name, by which he is known), ran a populist campaign and won the support of the long-suffering rural poor. The usual governing elites refused to accept their loss of control and an extended, often violent political struggle ensued, culminating in coups in 2006 and 2010.

Results from the 2016 Post-Libertarianism v. Conservatism Debate Survey

The Cato Institute and Heritage Foundation recently co-hosted a debate in which interns from both organizations debated whether conservatism or libertarianism is the better philosophy. At the conclusion of the debate, the Cato Institute conducted a post-debate survey of attendees finding important similarities between millennial conservative and libertarian attendees on skepticism toward government economic intervention and business regulation, but also striking differences in attitudes toward immigration, LGBT issues, national security, privacy, foreign policy, and perceptions of bias in the justice system.

Full LvCDebate Attendee Survey results found here.

What Are Their Priority Issues? 

The survey asked conservative and libertarian attendees to rate on a scale of 1 to 5 how concerned they were about nineteen different issues.  

Note: This chart displays the mean level of concern (on a scale of 1-5) across 19 different issues for both conservative and libertarian millennials who attended the Libertarianism v. Conservatism intern debate at the Cato Institute. Moving from the inner to the outer circles indicates an increasing level of concern for each respective issue. Results from statistical tests are shown which indicate if conservatives and libertarians significantly differed in their concern for the issue *** p<.001 ** p < .01 * p < .05.

Note: This chart displays the mean level of concern (on a scale of 1-5) across 19 different issues for both conservative and libertarian millennials who attended the Libertarianism v. Conservatism intern debate at the Cato Institute. Moving from the inner to the outer circles indicates an increasing level of concern for each respective issue. Results from statistical tests are shown which indicate if conservatives and libertarians significantly differed in their concern for the issue *** p<.001 ** p < .01 * p < .05.

Despite a multitude of differences, millennial libertarian and conservative attendees share almost the same top five political priorities: 

  • Size of government
  • Government spending and debt
  • Taxes
  • Economy/jobs  

The Attack on Chile’s Private Pension System

Last month, a scandal erupted in Chile. The media discovered that the former director of the Chilean gendarmerie, the country’s penitentiary service, was receiving a pension of about $8,000 per month. Chile privatized its pension system in 1980. Instead of sending retirement money to the government, workers there put their money in private accounts that invest and accumulate savings to be used in old age. When Chile approved the reform, the military and some law enforcement agencies (such as the gendarmerie) remained in the old public system.

Although the abuse occurred within the old public pension system, which benefits a minority of Chileans, and the beneficiary in this case was a socialist political activist and ex-wife of the head of the lower house of Congress (also a socialist), the episode was used to attack the private system to which almost every Chilean worker belongs. The left declared that the private accounts managed by the private pension fund companies (known by their Spanish acronym AFP) provide low pensions, something that incensed many Chileans who saw that the AFPs do not pay the same level of pension evident in this particular case.

Before long, protests involving hundreds of thousands of people took place throughout the country under the slogan “No + AFP,” and demanded a return to the old pension system. Last week, President Michelle Bachelet announced a series of reforms that would give the state a larger role in peoples’ retirement.

Japan’s Slow-Motion Fiscal and Monetary Suicide

Remember Bill Murray’s Groundhog Day, the 1993 comedy classic about a weatherman who experiences the same day over and over again?

Well, the same thing is happening in Japan. But instead of a person waking up and reliving the same day, we get politicians pursuing the same failed Keynesian stimulus policies over and over again.

The entire country has become a parody of Keynesian economics. Yet the politicians make Obama seem like a fiscal conservative by comparison. They keep doubling down on the same approach, regardless of all previous failures.

The Wall Street Journal reports on the details of the latest Keynesian binge.

Japan’s cabinet approved a government stimulus package that includes ¥7.5 trillion ($73 billion) in new spending, in the latest effort by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to jump-start the nation’s sluggish economy. The spending program, which has a total value of ¥28 trillion over several years, represents…an attempt to breathe new life into the Japanese economy… The government will pump money into infrastructure projects… The government will provide cash handouts of ¥15,000, or about $147, each to 22 million low-income people… Other items in the package included interest-free loans for infrastructure projects…and new hotels for foreign tourists.

As already noted, this is just the latest in a long line of failed stimulus schemes.

The WSJ story includes this chart showing what’s happened just since 2008.

Case Dismissed in Lawsuit Against Florida School Choice… Again

In yesterday’s update regarding school choice lawsuits, I noted that a judge recently denied a request to fast-track one of the two anti-school-choice lawsuits (Citizens for Strong Schools v. Florida Board of Education). Today, a three-judge panel unanimously dismissed the other lawsuit (McCall v. Scott), in which the state teachers’ union alleged that Florida’s tax-credit scholarship program unconstitutionally supported a “parallel” system of public education and violated the state constitution’s historically anti-Catholic Blaine Amendment, which prohibits publicly funding religious schools. Last year, a trial court judge dismissed the case, holding that the plaintiffs lacked standing to bring the case because the scholarships were privately (not publicly) funded and that they were unable to prove that the scholarship program adversely impacted the district school system. The appellate judges unanimously agreed with the trial court, as Travis Pillow of RedefinED explains:

“[D]espite arguing that public funds have been diverted from the public school system, [the plaintiffs] make no argument whatsoever that public school funding has actually declined,” they wrote. Further, the court called the diversion theory “incorrect as a matter of law.”

The appellate judges held the case centered on political questions about school choice and education funding, and wrote that the ultimate “remedy is at the polls.”

“This is precisely the type of dispute into which the courts must decline to intervene under the separation of powers doctrine,” they wrote.

Earlier this year, thousands of parents and students held a rally calling on the teachers’ union to drop the suit.

Aetna is the Latest Insurer to Drastically Scale Back ACA Exchange Participation

On Monday Aetna announced that it will significantly reduce the scope of its participation in the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance exchanges, pulling out of 11 of its 15 states. The company will only continue offering exchange plans in Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska, and Virginia. In the related press release, Aetna Chairman and CEO Mark T. Bertolini pointed to the sizable losses the company had incurred through its business on the exchanges: $200 million in pretax losses in the second quarter and $430 million total since January 2014. Aetna covered almost 850,000 people through its exchange plans as of June 30th, and most of those people will have to find new plans in the next open enrollment, and these customers the latest group to find out first hand that “if you like your plan you can keep it” was not actually a guarantee.

Aetna 2017 Exchange Participation

Aetna Map

 

Sources: Bloomberg, Aetna.

Note: Created using DataWrapper.