Majority of Americans Misperceive Crime Trends

According to a recent Gallup survey, the majority of Americans think that crime is on the rise. This misperception persists year after year. Only 21 percent of Americans realize that crime is actually falling. Consider murder and rape alone:

Murder and rape are not the only crimes that are falling. The downward trend in U.S. crime rates also holds for simple and aggravated assaults as well as robberies. Crime, in other words, is falling across the board.

 

 Furthermore, the fall in crime is not limited to the United States. Globally, crime is down. For example, consider the homicide rate in Europe over the last century:

 

Why do most people perceive the world as increasingly crime-ridden despite statistical evidence to the contrary?

Harvard professor and HumanProgress.org advisory board member Steven Pinker provided a number of reasons for our deeply ingrained pessimism during a recent Cato event, “If Everything is Getting Better, Why Do We Remain So Pessimistic?” which can be viewed here. His book, The Better Angels of Our Nature, offers a more in-depth look at the decline of violence.

Two Very Depressing Charts for President Obama, Two Very Encouraging Charts for America’s Taxpayers

Let’s look at some fiscal data that must be very depressing for President Obama and other advocates of big government.

Which means, of course, that this information must be very good news for American taxpayers!

Here’s a chart looking at annual federal spending since 2000. You’ll notice that spending skyrocketed from 2000-2009 (a time when libertarians were justifiably glum), but look at how the growth of government came to a screeching halt after 2009.

Here are some specific numbers culled from the OMB data and CBO data. In fiscal year 2009, the federal government spent about $3.52 trillion. In fiscal year 2014 (which ended on September 30), the federal government spent about $3.50 trillion.

In other words, there’s been no growth in nominal government spending over the past five years. It hasn’t received nearly as much attention as it deserves, but there’s been a spending freeze in Washington.

Now let’s look at what happens when government is put on a diet.

How Predictable Is an UberX Income?

Some of the appeal of the so-called “sharing economy” is that it allows providers to earn money with assets that would otherwise not be used. Thanks to Uber, Lyft, and Airbnb, a car that would normally sit in the driveway and a spare bedroom can both be used to make some extra money with relative ease. According to Uber, the May median annual income for its full-time New York City rideshare drivers is $90,766 (although this figure has been contested), well above the New York City median income of $46,540. This figure may appeal to those who might want to be an Uber rideshare driver, even if only part-time. However, data released by Uber shows that in order to make a predictable income as an UberX driver in New York City you will have to work long hours.

Yesterday, Uber released the following graph: 

 

The graph is based on data gathered from what Uber described as “a randomly selected sample” of New York City UberX drivers during the week of November 3rd. The y-axis shows the drivers’ average hourly post-deduction wage and the x-axis shows the number of hours worked per week. 

Uber’s post highlights that the average hourly wage for New York City UberX drivers for the November 3rd week remained relatively constant regardless of the number of hours worked. According to Uber, “the average earnings per hour for a driver who’s online for 5 hours is roughly the same as the average for a driver who’s online for 65 hours.”

However, Uber’s data suggests that if UberX drivers want a reliable income they will have to work more hours. The second graph released by Uber shows how much the drivers shown in the first graph would earn in a year if they worked the same number of hours for 50 weeks. 

As Slate’s Alison Griswold has pointed out, this graph shows that the more hours you work as an UberX driver in New York City the more reliable your average hourly income becomes. For instance, New York City UberX drivers working more than 70 hours a week for 50 weeks can expect to earn between $70,000 and $90,000 per year. Yet, the graph also shows that if you are working as an UberX driver in New York City part-time (less than 40 hours a week), your income is much less predictable.

UberX is understandably an attractive option for those who want to earn some money in their spare time. But what Uber’s own data reveals is that part-time UberX drivers should not expect a more predictable income than those who rideshare on a full-time basis.

Obama’s Big Idea: Let’s Hike Federal Cop Subsidies

President Obama’s newly announced police-reform package lives up to one’s worst expectations. He flatly refuses to curtail the federal police militarization program, instead calling for a big hike in federal spending on aid to local departments with the usual micromanaging strings attached. These strings will predictably make departments more responsive to Washington, and lobbies with clout there, as distinct from their local communities. As USA Today notes, one powerful interest group has been especially active behind the scenes: “The Fraternal Order of Police, the nation’s largest police union, has waged an intense lobbying campaign to keep the surplus equipment flowing,” with its executive director specifically speaking up in favor of the transfer of armored vehicles and personnel carriers.  A Washington Post editorial notes that while the administration has now released some useful information on the Pentagon’s 1033 surplus-gear program, it still apparently has no plans to improve data gathering on police use of lethal force. 

In a related story that shouldn’t be missed, Conor Friedersdorf assembles excessive-force and misconduct horror stories of cops reinstated in union arbitration proceedings from Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Miami, Sarasota, and elsewhere around the country. He concludes:

I’d rather see 10 wrongful terminations than one person wrongfully shot and killed. Because good police officers and bad police officers pay the same union dues and are equally entitled to labor representation, police unions have pushed for arbitration procedures that skew in the opposite direction. Why have we let them? If at-will employment, the standard that would best protect the public, is not currently possible, arbitration proceedings should at a minimum be transparent and fully reviewable so that miscarriages of justice are known when they happen. With full facts, the public would favor at-will employment eventually.

You can’t tackle the excessive force problem credibly unless you tackle the power of the police unions. Period. 

[adapted from a post at Overlawyered]

Who Will Watch the Watchdogs?

Inspectors General (IGs) serve an important purpose within the federal bureaucracy. They are supposed to be independent, internal watchdogs that guard against fraud, corruption, waste, and other failures. But based on the recent actions of some Inspectors General, their independence is being questioned.

Congress created the system of Inspectors General in 1978 with support from both parties and President Carter. The 72 IGs monitor agency activities and report on agency malfeasance.  Many IGs are appointed by the president to shield them from agency interference.

In theory, IGs are supposed to crack down on waste, but IGs are often too soft on their agencies. Complaints have increased over the last several years. The Washington Examiner discusses the issue:

In the past two years, IGs at a half-dozen Cabinet-level agencies have been accused of retaliating against whistleblowers or softening their findings to protect top department executives or the White House.

Damning information about high-level misconduct has been scrubbed from recent IG reports at the Departments of State, Defense, Homeland Security, Interior and a slew of independent agencies, according to congressional reports and outside watchdog groups.

The Commerce IG has been rebuked for retaliating against his own people by the U.S. Office of Special Counsel and two congressional committees.

At the Department of Veterans Affairs, the acting inspector general is under fire for downplaying whistleblower claims and absolving the agency of blame for patient deaths in a high-profile report, even though the report confirmed that the VA used phony scheduling practices that led to delays in care.

Whistleblowers who have turned to Congress or the media routinely say inspectors general failed to investigate their charges of wrongdoing and then idly watched as their bosses subjected them to brutal retaliation for exposing agency secrets.

Even investigators within IG offices have faced retaliation for reporting internal wrongdoing or attempts to withhold embarrassing findings, according to congressional reports.

IGs are supposed to be guardians of the public interest, but sometimes they are the opposite. Congress has even had to use its subpoena power to force IGs to release documents and reports in some cases.

IGs serve an essential function ensuring that taxpayer funds are spent wisely, but many IGs are falling short on their oversight responsibilities. If they refuse, who will watch the watchdogs? As James Madison wrote in Federalist 51, “”In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men…, you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself.”

New Essays in Cato Growth Forum

Here are today’s new essays in the Cato Institute’s online forum on reviving growth:

1. Edward Glaeser targets land use restrictions – and five other barriers to growth.

2. Susan Dudley wants to reform the regulatory process.

3. James Pethokoukis takes aim at the crony capitalist alliance.

4. Andrew Kelly calls for better integration of school and work.

5. Bowman Cutter looks for a path to the “good economy.”

Google’s Search “Monopoly”

Last week, while we Americans were “unbundling” the various parts of our turkeys, the European Parliament was talking about unbundling Google’s various features:

Members of the European parliament voted overwhelmingly on a measure aimed at keeping companies, such as Google, from dominating the search engine market.

The motion “calls on the [European] Commission to consider proposals with the aim of unbundling search engines from other commercial services as one potential long-term solution” to ensure fair competition.

While the vote was largely symbolic, its outcome could put EU anti-trust commissioner Margrethe Vestager under pressure to pursue complaints against Google, which critics say squeezes out its competitors using unfair advantages.

The Economist weighed in with a bit of criticism:

The European Parliament’s Googlephobia looks a mask for two concerns, one worthier than the other. The lamentable one, which American politicians pointed out this week, is a desire to protect European companies. Among the loudest voices lobbying against Google are Axel Springer and Hubert Burda Media, two German media giants. Instead of attacking successful American companies, Europe’s leaders should ask themselves why their continent has not produced a Google or a Facebook. Opening up the EU’s digital services market would do more to create one than protecting local incumbents.

The good reason for worrying about the internet giants is privacy. It is right to limit the ability of Google and Facebook to use personal data: their services should, for instance, come with default settings guarding privacy, so companies gathering personal information have to ask consumers to opt in. Europe’s politicians have shown more interest in this than American ones. But to address these concerns, they should regulate companies’ behaviour, not their market power. Some clearer thinking by European politicians would benefit the continent’s citizens.

Building on these points, I’d go even further.  It seems to me there is pretty clear demand for a privacy-focused internet company.  But I don’t see why governments need to get involved here.  Instead, companies – European ones, and others, too – just need to recognize this demand, and jump into the market with some competing products.  There are fewer barriers to entry in this market than most other markets; someone just needs to be willing to take a risk.