Trump Is the Nativist Dream Candidate

Donald Trump’s win in Indiana has practically clinched the Republican nomination.  Since July 2015, Trump has led in most polls of GOP candidates.  Immigration restrictionism is his most popular policy position.  That position and the way he’s talked about it have defined his candidacy and set him apart from the get go.  Trump is the nativist dream candidate – virtually whatever happens now can be blamed on his anti-immigration position. 

Here’s a list of Trump’s anti-immigration credentials:

You can read more about Trump’s immigration policies in his plan – which Ann Coulter called “the greatest political document since the Magna Carta.”

Trump is the real anti-immigration candidate that nativists have been praying for.  He owns the anti-immigration label no matter what he does or says to distance himself from it in the general election.  He spouts their ideas and appeals to their biases on a national stage.  He is the perfect spokesman in tone and style for such a policy position.  The political failure of immigration restrictionists in the past was always blamed on their moderation.  Now they have a real anti-immigration radical to test their theory – so we should give them appropriate credit for Trump’s failure in November.

Seven Reforms to Confront the Populist Wave in America and Europe

Donald Trump keeps winning Republican Party primaries. He could be America’s next president. It’s a sobering thought.

But Trump is not alone. Europe is filled with populist parties, old and new.

It’s too simple to decry a proto-fascist wave, as feared by some alarmists. In fact, most of his Republican competitors were far more aggressive and irresponsible on foreign policy than Trump. Normal folks simply are tired of being viewed as problems to be solved rather than citizens to be engaged.

In the U.S. it doesn’t much matter who people vote for. Government will expand. New regulations will be issued. More tax dollars will be spent. Additional wars will be started. The only certainty is that the views of those who vote will be ignored. Much the same governing consensus dominates Europe.

At the same time, the governing class protects itself. The response of this ruling class to public challenge only increases popular anger and frustration.

Yes, Michael, REAL ID Is a Nationwide Data-Sharing Mandate

Baton Rouge IT consultant Michael Hale is right to be concerned about the unfunded mandates in the REAL ID Act. The U.S. national ID law requires states to issue driver’s licenses and share driver data according to federal standards. States complying with REAL ID will find that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) dictates their driver licensing policies and the expenditure of state funds in this area forevermore. But he raises that concern at the tail end of a letter to the editor of The New Orleans Advocate that broadly endorses the national ID law based on incorrect information. Here’s some information that Mr. Hale and every American concernced with our liberty and security should know.

Mr. Hale believes that state driver data “will continue to be maintained by each individual state, and each state will decide who gets access to this information.” This is not the case. The REAL ID Act requires states to share driver data across a nationwide network of databases. The DHS and other national ID advocates downplay and deny this, but they are not persuasive because the requirement is right there in the statute:

To meet the requirements of this section, a State shall adopt the following practices in the issuance of drivers’ licenses and identification cards: …
(12) Provide electronic access to all other States to information contained in the motor vehicle database of the State.
(13) Maintain a State motor vehicle database that contains, at a minimum–
(A) all data fields printed on drivers’ licenses and identification cards issued by the State; and
(B) motor vehicle drivers’ histories, including motor vehicle violations, suspensions, and points on licenses.

Mr. Hale says, “The Real ID Act allows states to either adopt the Real ID or to come up with their own version of secure ID that Homeland Security can approve.” This is not true. The option of issuing a non-federal license or ID does not waive the obligation to share driver data nationwide.

Unlike the Department of Homeland Security and its pro-national ID allies, Mr. Hale gamely tries to argue the security merits of having a national ID. “The purpose of all this is to create a trustworthy form of ID that can be used to ensure air travel security,” he says. “The first step in securing a flight is to make sure everyone on board is who they claim to be.”

That argument is intuitive. In daily life, knowing who people are permits you to find them and punish any bad behavior. But U.S. federal public policy with national security implications and billions of taxpayer dollars at stake requires more articulate calculation.

The costs or impediments a national ID system would impose on dedicated terrorists, criminal organizations, and people lacking impulse control is minimal. For billions of dollars in taxpayer dollars expended, millions of hours standing in DMV lines, and placement of all law-abiding Americans into a national tracking system, REAL ID might mildly inconvenience the bad guys. They can, for example, bribe a DMV employee, spend a few thousand dollars to manufacture a false identity, or acquire the license of someone looking similar enough to themselves to fool lazy TSA agents. I analyzed all dimensions of identification and identity systems in my book, Identity Crisis: How Identification is Overused and Misunderstood.

There are other security measures where dollars and effort deliver more benefit. Or people might be left in control of their dollars and time to live as free Americans.

The Department of Homeland Security consistently downplays and obscures the true nature of the REAL ID Act’s national ID policy, and it never even tries to defend its security merits in any serious way. In the information technology community, the security demerits of having a national ID system backed by a web of databases as required by the law seems relatively clear.  People familiar with information technology tend to be more concerned, not less, with the power and peril of a national ID system.

The quest continues to make active citizens like Mr. Hale more aware of all dimensions of this issue.

Donald Trump’s Hits and Misses in Foreign Policy

Donald Trump has offered his foreign policy vision. It was a bit of a mishmash, but he is no Neoconservative and broke with pro-war Republican orthodoxy in important ways.

The speech, delivered last week in downtown Washington, was standard campaign fare, intended to demonstrate that the candidate was serious, and included some of the usual bland generalities.

Still, there was considerable good in the talk.

After the Cold War, he noted, “Logic was replaced with foolishness and arrogance, which led to one foreign policy disaster after another.” Hard to argue with that. Moreover, said Trump, it was a mistake to believe that the U.S. could impose Western-style democracy on countries “that had no experience or interests” in the process.

Indeed, he noted that “the legacy of the Obama-Clinton interventions will be weakness, confusion and disarray, a mess.” It actually is the Bush-Obama-Clinton interventions, but point taken. “Our actions in Iraq, Libya and Syria have helped unleash ISIS,” Trump added.

Added Trump: “unlike other candidates for the presidency, war and aggression will not be my first instinct.” Those are words not often spoken by Republicans. He also criticized the Iraq debacle, whose “biggest beneficiary has been Iran.”

Further, complained Trump, “our allies are not paying their fair share.” He promised to get out “of the nation-building business.” He argued that Washington should cooperate with Russia.

But there was the bad in the talk as well.

Transit in Turmoil

Last week’s resignation of Michael Melaniphy as CEO of the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) is a sign that more people are seeing that America’s transit-industrial complex has no clothes. Melaniphy’s departure comes on the heels of the withdrawal of the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) from APTA membership.

MTA’s complaint is that APTA has failed to help the seven “legacy” transit systems, that is, rail systems that are more than 40 years old, that are suffering from severe maintenance backlogs. These transit systems, which are in New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland, carry nearly two-third of the nation’s transit riders yet–thanks in part to APTA lobbying–a disproportionate share of federal transit dollars go to smaller cities that are building new rail systems that they won’t be able to afford to maintain.

In 2010, the Federal Transit Administration estimated that the legacy rail systems (plus Washington and Atlanta) needed nearly $60 billion to restore them to a state of good repair. Yet little was done, and the latest estimate is that the maintenance backlog has grown to more than $93 billion. Meanwhile, with APTA’s encouragement, Congress has spent something like $15 billion supporting the construction of new rail systems in places like Los Angeles, Seattle, and Portland.

Even the transit systems that suffer from maintenance backlogs are spending precious resources building new rail lines because that is what Congress will fund, not maintenance. Thus, the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority is spending $3 billion on a light-rail line to Medford even as it let its maintenance backlog grow to $7.3 billion. The Chicago Transit Authority is spending $2.3 billion extending its Red Line even as its maintenance backlog exceeds $22 billion. The San Francisco BART system is suffering frequent breakdowns and has a $9.7 billion maintenance backlog, yet is spending $6.3 billion on a line to San Jose that partly duplicates existing commuter rail service.

Meanwhile, other cities seem to be racing to see who can spend the most on their own rail transit expansions. Having just finished spending $1.5 billion on a seven-mile light-rail line, Portland wants to spend $2 billion on a new 12-mile line. Seattle just spend $1.9 billion on a three-mile light-rail line and is now spending $3.7 billion on a fourteen-mile line to Bellevue. The Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority wants to spend $120 billion on new transit lines, including the construction of a nine-mile light-rail tunnel to the San Fernando Valley that will cost nearly $1 billion per mile. 

Despite their expense, none of these light-rail lines are anything like the Washington or other subway systems. The “light” in light rail refers to capacity, not weight: light rail is, by definition, low-capacity transit, capable of carrying only about a quarter as many people per hour as a subway or elevated line. In 1981, San Diego opened the nation’s first modern light-rail line at a cost of $5.6 million per mile (about $12.5 million in today’s money); the cost of the average line being built today is $163 million per mile, yet those new lines won’t be able to carry any more people than the San Diego line.

These new rail lines do little good for transit riders, mainly because their high cost eventually forces most transit agencies that build them to cannibalize their bus systems. For example, construction of new light-rail lines forced San Jose’s Valley Transportation Authority to reduce bus service by 22 percent since 2001, leading to a 32 percent decline in ridership

It’s no surprise that APTA sheepishly reported last month that the nation’s overall transit ridership declined in 2015. While APTA blamed the decline on low gas prices, the truth is (as noted here last year), if you don’t count the New York subway system (whose ridership has been growing in response to rising Manhattan employment), nationwide ridership has declined for the past several years. 

Why are we spending so much money building new rail lines when it doesn’t help, and often hurts, transit riders? Part of the answer is Congress likes shiny new projects more than maintenance. But part of the answer is that APTA’s membership is stacked with manufacturers and suppliersconsultantscontractors, and land developers who build subsidized projects next to rail stations. Although New York’s MTA carries nearly 37 percent of all transit riders in the country, its membership dues covered less than 2 percent of APTA’s budget because APTA gets most of its money from non-transit agencies. Thus, like Congress, APTA is biased towards new construction.

For example, APTA claims to be an educational organization, yet it hasn’t done much to educate Congress or the public about the long-term costs of rail transit and the need to almost completely and expensively rebuild those rail lines every 30 years or so. After all, this message could undermine support for building new rail transit lines in cities that don’t need them.

People who support the needs of actual transit riders, rather than rail snobs (people who say they’ll ride a train but not a bus) or contractors, should use these facts to persuade Congress to stop funding obsolete rail transit systems when cities desperately need things that will truly relieve traffic congestion and cost-effectively improve everyone’s mobility.

New Study on K-12 Education

Neal McCluskey has updated an overview study on federal aid for K-12 education, which is posted at DownsizingGovernment.org. Neal reports that K-12 spending under the U.S. Department of Education and its predecessor agencies rose from $4.5 billion in 1965 to $40.2 billion in 2016, in constant 2016 dollars. He notes that the department funds more than 100 subsidy programs, and each comes with regulations extending federal control over local schools.

Over the years, the states have been happy to receive federal funds, but they have chafed under the mandates imposed by Washington. George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind Act provoked a backlash because of its costly rules for academic standards, student testing, and unrealistic proficiency demands. Neal argues that the new Ensuring Student Success Act of 2016 may have reduced some aspects of top-down control, but we won’t know for sure until all the regulations have been written.

Despite large increases in federal aid since the 1960s, public school performance has not improved much, if at all. Reading and math scores on the National Assessment of Educational Progress for 17-year-olds have been stagnant. In addition, America’s performance on international tests has remained mediocre, yet we spend more per-pupil on K-12 education than most countries.

Neal concludes that federal funding and mandates are not the way to create high-quality K-12 education. He notes that Canada has an advanced economy, yet it has no federal department of education. Public education in Canada is almost solely a concern of provincial and local governments. That decentralized approach has resulted in substantial experimentation and innovation, including school vouchers, charter schools, and competing public schools. International comparison tests show that Canadian kids generally outperform American kids in reading, mathematics, and science.

Neal is right that Congress should phase out federal funding for K-12 education and end all related regulations. Federal aid is ultimately funded by the taxpayers who live in the 50 states, and thus it provides no free lunch. Indeed, the states just get money back with strings attached, while losing billions of dollars from wasteful bureaucracy. There is no advantage in federal manipulation of K-12 education, and our school systems would be better off without it.

Neal’s essay.

Fifth North Korean Nuclear Test May be in the Offing: Now What?

In January North Korea conducted its fourth nuclear test in the face of universal international protest. Even China, Pyongyang’s one nominal ally, joined in the criticism.

With Beijing’s support the United Nations imposed new sanctions on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The U.S. and its allies warned Pyongyang of further isolation if the DPRK continued to flout the will of the international community.

Now the North appears to be preparing another nuclear test. If the DPRK does so no further proof will be needed that the North intends to become a significant nuclear power.

Pyongyang has invested too much to drop the program. Moreover, the North lives the old Henry Kissinger aphorism that even paranoids have enemies. The U.S., backed by the Europeans, has demonstrated its willingness to oust dictators on its “bad” list, even after making a deal with them, such as Moammar Khadafy.

What makes the prospect of another test particularly dramatic is Kim Jong-un’s apparent willingness to proceed at any cost. He can have little doubt that the U.S. will press for additional sanctions. He knows that no other government will defend his regime.

He is aware that after the January test the People’s Republic of China approved tougher international penalties. Every additional DPRK provocation threatens to become the last back-breaking straw for China, leading it to target food and energy aid, which would cause Pyongyang enormous hardship.

What to do when nothing so far has worked?