Topic: Trade and Immigration

Hillary’s Rural Renaissance

Further to David Boaz’s post below on the Democratic Leadership Council’s recent spending plans, Senator Hillary Clinton has called for a “rural renaissance” to “restore the promise and prosperity to main streets and rural communities.” The full press release can be viewed here, but these are the main points:

  • A “national broadband strategy” to “coordinate and maximize federal resources” which would newly include a National Rural Broadband Innovation Fund and the creation of a single office run by an “administrator” that would provide a “one-stop shopping clearing house for innovators and businesses that want to expand broadband in rural areas.” Strange, but from where I’m standing, the Internet seems to have evolved pretty well without government interference so far.
  • A “Rural Regional Investment Program, which would provide equity investments to fund innovative opportunities and partnerships in rural areas” that would “provide rural communities with flexible resources to develop comprehensive, collaborative, locally-controlled planning and to foster innovative community and economic development strategies.” Senator Clinton’s proposal also includes more “help” in administering small private loans “pooling private capital and administering that capital through trusted intermediaries” (overseen by the Federal government, presumably). As the seemingly inexhaustible stream of money to ethanol production has shown, investment money to rural areas seems to flow quite nicely when investors see promising (if pork-induced) returns.
  • Speaking of ethanol, Senator Clinton would like to see the creation of a $1 billion Strategic Energy Fund to “support [the] rapid development of renewable energy, including biofuels.”
  • Then there are a host of other measures, including so-called “green” payments, a more reliable safety net that would “help manage risk” and include counter-cyclical payments (the most trade distorting and offensive kind to our trade partners), and more spending on health care and rural education.

The US Government has been lavishing subsidies on farmers since the New Deal in the 1930s, and has spent over $55 billion propping up the agricultural sector since the enactment of the 2002 Farm Bill. Far from giving away even more of taxpayers’ money, surely it is time for the government to stop giving agriculture special treatment and to allow farmers to carry the risks and reap the rewards of their investments, just like every other businessperson in America.

Hey, GOP: Combat Anti-worker Image by Being Pro-worker!

Any real concern House Republicans may have for low-wage workers is apparently evaporating in the heat of the midterm elections.

Here’s the GOP political calculus, as reported by the New York Times:

Republican moderates used a closed party meeting on Thursday to make their case for a vote, saying it was crucial for helping to dispel the party’s antiworker image. The moderates ran into opposition from conservatives who said the wage proposal could turn off campaign contributors with the elections looming and drive away the party’s business base. But some lawmakers said opponents also recognized the political necessity of giving moderates some political cover, a prospect more appealing than potentially losing their majority in the House.

Perhaps there was a “compassionate conservative” somewhere in the room who thought to mention that a national minimum wage hike is likely to harm low-wage workers, especially young urban workers trying to gain some experience and start on a path to economic independence. But, as far as I can tell, the conclusion was that it is better to be actually anti-worker than to have a false “antiworker image.”

If House Republicans wish to get out from behind false perception and stand up for the real interests of workers, they should take a look at this good overview of recent empirical work on the minimum wage by James Sherk at Heritage. And here is Cato adjunct scholar and George Mason economics chair Don Boudreaux on why we should expect government-mandated price floors to harm workers. If the vaunted rightwing messaging machine is so amazing, why can’t it do more to explain why reducing opportunities for low-wage workers is not pro-worker?

Chicago City Council to Low-wage Workers and Poor People: Eat Dirt!

The Chicago City Council has proved beyond doubt its aggressive hostility to the welfare of low-wage workers and low-income consumers by its approval of an ordinance that would forbid Chicagoans from legally entering into agreements to work for less than $10 an hour and $3 in benefits—even if they want to—with retailers with $1 billion in annual sales and stores of at least 90,000 square feet.

By prohibiting job-seekers from accepting terms of employment to their and potential employers’ mutual benefit, the City Council has effectively requested that major employers like Wal-Mart and Target open fewer new stores in Chicago, and make available fewer (and possibly no) new jobs. Additionally, the Council has asked Chicago’s low-income consumers, who would benefit most from more discount retail outlets, to forgo significant increases in their quality of life.

As NYU economist Jason Furman wrote in Slate by way of crushing Barbara Ehrenreich in a debate about the effect of Wal-Mart on America’s working class:

A range of studies has found that Wal-Mart’s prices are 8 percent to 39 percent below the prices of its competitors. The single most careful economic study, co-authored by the well-respected MIT economist Jerry Hausman, found that grocery sales by Wal-Mart and other big-box stores made consumers better off to the tune of 25 percent of food consumption. That doesn’t mean much for those of us in the top fifth of the income distribution—we spend only about 3.5 percent of our income on food at home and, at least in my case, most of that shopping is done at high-priced supermarkets like Whole Foods. But that’s a huge savings for households in the bottom quintile, which, on average, spend 26 percent of their income on food. In fact, it is equivalent to a 6.5 percent boost in household income—unless the family lives in New York City or one of the other places that have successfully kept Wal-Mart and its ilk away.

Why does the Chicago City Council insist on harming workers by denying them their moral right to enter into work agreements on terms they find acceptable? Why does the Chicago City Council want to keep things from getting better for its city’s poor?

Mercantilist Logic Flounders at Sea

The good news from the listing cargo ship near Alaska’s Aleutian Islands is that all 23 crew members were plucked safely from the ship by helicopter last night. (See news story.) The bad news is that the 5,000 cars aboard the ship bound from Japan to Canada may not survive the mishap.

Come to think of it, would it be such bad news if those 5,000 cars sank to the bottom of the ocean? According to the mercantilist mindset that seems to dominate Washington’s discussion of trade policy, the loss of merchandise in transit from one country to another may be the best of all possible worlds.

Mercantilism is a centuries-old approach to trade that believes that exports are the big payoff from trade and imports a burden. By definition, then, a trade surplus signals success for trade policy and a trade deficit failure.

From a mercantilist point of view, then, the loss of those 5,000 cars at sea should be a blessing to the global economy. The people of Japan would have occupied themselves producing those 5,000 cars for export, while the people of Canada would not have shoulder the “burden” of accepting them as imports. Japan can add to its trade surplus without Canada being forced to suffer a deficit.

The great French economist Frederic Bastiat exposed this fallacy more than 150 years ago in an essay, “The Balance of Trade” (Chapter 6 of his Economic Sophisms). If the mercantilists are right, we should all be praying for bad weather in the sea lanes carrying all those cars, shoes, shirts, and laptop computers to our showrooms and store shelves.

Doha Ends With a Whimper

The Doha Round of trade talks has been suspended indefinitely. What was billed as an historic opportunity to liberalize trade through multilateral negotiations has ended with no deal in sight. Now, get ready for the blame game, a kind of “press-releases-at-dawn” duel between the US and the EU, with a few comments from other players thrown in for good measure. For starters, you can see the US version of events through the USTR and the EC (link requires subscription) provided a 9 page document describing how much they had done to get a deal concluded.

Of course, none of this necessarily means the end of trade liberalization, and to this end we can expect after the finger-pointing has ended a revival of the seemingly endless debate on whether bilateral or multilateral liberalization is best. But, as my colleague Dan Ikenson argued in his recent paper on unilateral liberalization, the US can do itself a big favor, and in the process gain some much needed foreign policy credibility, by unilaterally reducing tariffs and subsidies.

Maybe now that the Doha Round is in remission, the US can focus on doing what is in its own interests, instead of seeing liberalization as a “concession” that depends on the actions of the EU and others.

Meanwhile, back at the Secretariat, discussions are turning to a more important topic: where to find more space for its ever-expanding staff. Looks like you’ll be needing fewer large conference rooms, guys.

U.S. Manufacturing Expands along with China’s Economy

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) renewed his threat this week to demand a vote in the Senate on legislation that would impose steep tariffs on imports from China if the Chinese government does not move promptly to strengthen its currency.

Like many other members of Congress, Schumer believes that China has “manipulated” the value of its currency in a way that makes Chinese goods artificially cheap in the U.S. market while discouraging U.S. exports to China. One result, according to Schumer, has been serious damage to America’s manufacturing base.

Three news items this week, though, should give Congress pause before it slaps tariffs on imports from China:

  • The latest reports from Beijing confirmed that China’s economy continues to grow rapidly. China’s economy reached an annualized growth rate of 11 percent in the second quarter and more than 10 percent for the first half of 2006. 
  • But China’s growth is not coming at the expense of the U.S. economy or U.S. manufacturing. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board of Governors reported this week that U.S. manufacturing output is up 5.7 percent so far in 2006 compared to a year ago. Indeed, according to a recent Cato study, U.S. manufacturing output is up 50 percent in the past 12 years along with our expanding trade with China.
  • The number of Internet users in China has reached 123 million. That gives China the second largest group of users in the world, behind the 200 million users in the United States.

Rapid economic growth in China is not coming at the expense of the U.S. manufacturing sector. But that growth is creating a growing middle class in China that is increasingly engaged not only in the global economy but in the global sharing of ideas.America’s economic relationship with China was the topic of a lively discussion at a Cato policy forum this week. You can view or listen to the event here.

Is That the Best You Can Do?

An update from my blog entry on Friday:  The G8 summit has not given any substantive support to the Doha round of trade talks that I can discern. The best the G8 leaders (minus Russia, who failed to convince the US to sign off on their membership application to the WTO) could do apparently was to issue a statement of encouragement to WTO members to keep negotiating, and a permission slip for the WTO Director-General, Pascal Lamy, to consult with members in the hope of promoting “early agreement” (this coming five years into the launch of the Doha round). The leaders gave Mr Lamy until mid-August to report back on his mission. Note that this call to unblock trade talks was from only developed members of the WTO: Brazil and India, the two most powerful developing members in the WTO, will meet with the G8 today and will no doubt have their own perspective.

The G8 leaders’ statement implied they had come to no agreement as to how to break the current stalemate over trade talks, and provides much less momentum than would have been hoped for. For a group calling for “utmost urgency” in concluding a deal, they sure seem reluctant to do any heavy lifting themselves.