Topic: Trade and Immigration

Immigration Illusions Part One: “Average Wages” Severely Muddled

The Senate immigration bill would ease quotas on legal immigration (particularly for highly-skilled and farm workers), and also allow those now here unlawfully to apply for a green card after ten years if they pay a fine and back taxes.  In an effort to defend our current tight but leaky immigration quotas, a few legislators and commentators seized on the first half of a sentence in the Congressional Budget Office report on this bill:  “CBO’s central estimates also show that average wages for the entire labor force would be 0.1 percent lower in 2023… under the legislation than under current law.”  The CBO goes on to predict average wages would be “0.5 percent higher in 2033” (roughly in line with academic studies).  But the CBO cannot possibly predict such data with any precision for a year ahead, much less 10 or 20.  The larger problem is a common yet severe misunderstanding of what “average wage” really means.

If the Senate bill were enacted, claims Alabama Republican Senator Jeff Sessions, “the wages of U.S. workers – which should be growing – will instead decline… It would be the biggest setback for poor and middle-class Americans of any legislation Congress has considered in decades.” Indeed, if it were to pass, he added, “the wages of American workers will fall for the next 12 years. They will be lower than inflation rates.”

This is quite mistaken.  The CBO never said wages of U.S. workers would fall for even one year, much less twelve, nor did the CBO claim wage gains might be “lower than inflation rates.” All the CBO did was to predict that average nominal wages might end up one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) lower in 2023 than they would be if legal immigration remained as restrictive as it is under current law. If the average wage would otherwise have risen to $45 an hour in 2023, for example, it would instead turn out to be just $44.996 with the Senate bill.

Under the current law baseline, the CBO projects that the employment cost index would rise by 3.7 percent per year from 2014 to 2023, while prices would rise by only 2 percent. That means real compensation (the projection includes benefits, not wages alone) is projected to rise by 1.7 percent a year over the next decade, with or without immigration reform.  

If you add up all the yearly increases, the estimated cumulative rise in worker compensation would be 48.7 percent from 2014 to 2023 under current law, or 48.6 percent − 0.1 percent lower − with the Senate immigration bill.  The difference is doubly insignificant, because CBO ten-year projections are no better than throwing darts.  But for a U.S. Senator to misidentify such as trivial 0.1 percent difference over 12 years as a 12-year spell of falling wages, and for Fox News and others to report that error as though it had substance, involves monumental misunderstanding.  

Banning Fancy French Cheese

I’m no cheese connoisseur.  I’m usually happy with American or provolone, and I’ll even go for that Philly favorite, Cheese Whiz.  But I understand that some people have more refined tastes, and they feel very strongly about the issue.  And they get very upset when their favorite cheese is taken away. The Washington Post reports on a recent instance of this:

For centuries, microscopic mites have been part of the process for making Mimolette, a mild-tasting cheese shaped like a cannonball and electric orange in color. For decades, the cheese has been imported from France and distributed to shops and grocery stores across the United States.

That is, until this spring, when the Food and Drug Administration began blocking shipments of the Gouda-like product at U.S. ports, leaving thousands of pounds of it stranded in warehouses from New Jersey to California.

The FDA says inspectors found too many cheese mites per square inch crawling on the cantaloupe-like rinds of Mimolette, raising health concerns. But it hasn’t explained exactly why it began holding up the cheese shipments after decades of relatively few problems. “The only thing we can do is cite our regulations, which show very clearly that our job is to protect the food supply,” FDA spokeswoman Patricia El-Hinnawy said.

Cato’s Caleb Brown has just done an excellent video on this issue, and Walter Olson explains a bit more here:

Mimolette is a beloved French cheese produced for hundreds of years around the city of Lille. It looks somewhat like a ripe cantaloupe and tastes not unlike classic Dutch Gouda, to which it is related. Its distinctively pitted rind and hard-to-pin-down taste both arise from the action of microscopic cheese mites that are deliberately introduced to its surface as part of its production. Mimolette has been imported to specialty cheese shops in the United States for many years without incident, but now it’s come to the attention of the federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which is afraid that someone might have an allergic reaction to lingering remnants of the insect helpers (which are mostly removed in processing before final shipment). Now a large quantity of the expensive cheese is sitting in a warehouse in New Jersey, legally frozen, while its American fanciers prepare to go without. 

WSJ Sets a Litmus Test for Corporate Welfare

The Wall Street Journal has a largely terrific editorial today on the wasteful, inefficient, distortionary and unconstitutional Ex-Im Bank. I say “largely” because the editorial is rather meek in its recommendations, calling for “more oversight” and “limits” on the bank’s operations, rather than outright disbandment. But it’s a start, and might lend some momentum to legislative efforts to terminate the bank entirely.

The Ex-Im Bank itself is authorized until September 2014, but in the meantime a serious spanner could be thrown in the works if, as the editorial suggests, the Ex-Im board is denied a quorum. While these sorts of micro-level shenanigans are, in my opinion, an inferior substitute for principled, thoughtful policymaking, it might at least go some way toward preventing the growth of the bank, especially while Congress is so timid.

Watch this space.

The Real Consequences of Raising Tariffs for Bangladesh

As I noted yesterday, the Obama administration has suspended Bangladesh from the list of poor countries that receive preferential tariff treatment in the United States, citing concerns over workplace safety and inadequate labor laws. The vast majority of imports from Bangladesh will not be affected because apparel goods were already exempt from the program. But some tariffs will go up and the human cost of these new taxes is very real. 

The Wall Street Journal’s coverage of yesterday’s announcement includes this anecdote:

Higher porcelain duties will put a strain on the business of Ian Zucker, chief executive of 10 Strawberry Street in Denver, who imports dinnerware from Bangladesh for Bloomingdale’s, Wal-Mart and others.

“After the tariff goes in, I have to raise my prices 20 percent,” he said in an interview. “You think Wal-Mart’s going to say that’s OK?”

Mr. Zucker said he is likely to turn to China or Sri Lanka for dinnerware products, the making of which is labor-intensive, making countries with low wages especially attractive.

I wonder if the administration thinks it will get a thank-you card from unemployed Bangladeshi dinnerware makers now that they’re no longer being “exploited” by Western investors looking for low-wage labor.

Immigration Bill: Better, Not Best

This afternoon the Senate voted 68-32 to pass its sweeping immigration reform bill. The bill is a solid improvement over the current immigration system. It legalizes most of the unlawful immigrants here and provides larger pathways for legal immigration in the future.

The bill does have flaws – many of which I’ve written about in detail. It doesn’t increase lawful immigration enough. The guest worker visa programs for lower skilled workers are too small, restricted to certain sectors of the economy, and governed by confusing bureaucracy. Under today’s immigration rules, very few of our ancestors would have been able to immigrate here legally. The Senate’s immigration bill takes us a small step closer to our traditionally more open immigration policy.

It shovels gargantuan amounts of security resources toward the southern border in an attempt to halt future unlawful immigration that could otherwise cheaply be halted with an expanded guest worker visa program. The border “surge,” as many are calling it, is truly embarrassing, especially for a country with such proud immigrant traditions. There are certainly legitimate security concerns, but the extra enforcement will just drive up the price of smuggling and marginally decrease unlawful immigration of peaceful workers at enormous cost.

Worse, the bill creates a mandatory employment verification system called E-Verify. Those seeking work here will have to use this proto-national ID system to ask the government for permission to work. Government audits of the system find that its inaccuracy rate hovers at around a quarter of a percent. Independent audits, the most recent carried out in 2009, found error rates 3 to 4 times as high as that. As the system is expanded it will place an unfair burden on American businesses, saddling them with costs, and incentivizing illegal hiring without even a cursory I-9 form as has happened in states that have already mandated E-Verify.

Even with those flaws, this bill still does a lot more good than bad. Millions of new Americans will finally be able to live and work openly without fear of deportation. Millions of more highly skilled workers, merit-based immigrants, and their families will be able to become Americans. Americans will have more freedom to hire whom they want and more buyers for their goods and services. Our economy will grow more quickly, wages will increase, and the fiscal state of the federal government will improve over the medium-term.

Despite all of these benefits, this bill will face an uphill battle in the House of Representatives. The first round of a major political brawl has been concluded; time for the toughest round to begin.

Crazy Backward Policy Toward Bangladesh

It is widely expected that the Obama Administration will act today to suspend Bangladesh from the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program in response to a complaint from U.S. labor unions. Under the GSP program, some imports from some low-income countries can enter the U.S. market without paying tariffs. (Sallie James has done excellent work describing the pros and cons of this policy from a free trade perspective). Supporters of the suspension point to recent deadly industrial accidents to argue that Bangladesh needs stronger labor laws before being allowed to benefit from GSP tariff rates. In truth though, suspending Bangladesh from the program has zero chance of improving working conditions or wages in Bangladesh.

First off, less than 1 percent of Bangladesh exports to the United States currently enjoy low tariff treatment under the program. The vast majority of the $5 billion worth of Bangladeshi goods entering the United States every year are apparel products, which are exempt from GSP and have always faced steep tariffs. In other words, revoking GSP access is not a very big stick to use to get Bangladesh to change its labor laws.

Second, if access to the U.S market through the GSP program is meant to help Bangladesh, wouldn’t revoking that access harm Bangladesh? Indeed, the success of the suspension depends on it. Proponents of the suspension claim that increasing tariffs will prompt the Bangladeshi government to change its laws. This logic depends on the premise that policymakers in Dhaka are less attached to their domestic labor laws than they are to preferential access to the U.S. market. Considering how small of an impact the suspension will have on the Bangladesh economy, this premise is highly questionable. In the meantime, U.S. trade barriers will be working to prevent the development of more industries in Bangladesh.

Finally, even if the suspension is only temporary and successfully meets its goals of encouraging new labor laws, the fact remains that most people in Bangladesh will not benefit from more restrictive labor policies. Sweatshop conditions in the developing world are often shocking to Western consumers, but employment in the garment industry offers an unprecedented level of opportunity for millions of people. This is especially true for women looking for personal independence and wealth they could never find in traditional, agricultural society. Approximately 80 percent of Bangladesh’s four million garment workers are women.

Raising tariffs to promote labor restrictions is exactly the opposite of a good policy. Employment restrictions increase the cost of hiring labor. In doing so they are sure to decrease investment. Access to foreign capital and global consumer markets, on the other hand, increases the value of Bangladeshi labor.  Greater productivity per capita will empower workers to demand higher wages and better working conditions. Removing the bottom rungs is not going to help anyone climb a ladder, but open trade and investment will give more people in Bangladesh the strength to pull themselves out of poverty. 

DOMA Ruling’s Impact on Immigration

Yesterday’s ruling in the case of United States v. Windsor, where the Supreme Court found Section 3 of DOMA unconstitutional, was a victory for individual rights. As my colleague Jason Kuznicki pointed out, this ruling will probably have the greatest material impact on the lives of people through the immigration system. Now, American citizens will be able to sponsor their same-sex spouses for lawful permanent residency as immediate relatives. No more will Americans have to move abroad to live with their same-sex spouses. Americans can now sponsor their spouse’s green cards.

For political reasons, an amendment that would have provided for gay spouse sponsorship was not included in the Senate immigration bill. Senator Rubio went so far as to say that he would oppose the bill if it allowed Americans to sponsor their same-sex spouses, as the Leahy amendment would have done. Now that Section 3 of DOMA is struck down, the Leahy amendment is unneeded, a measure of justice is restored to the immigration system, and the threat of that type of amendment becoming a poison pill is totally removed.

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