Topic: Law and Civil Liberties

E-Verify Debunking Exposes Debunking Errors

Congratulations are due once again to the Department of Homeland Security for engaging in open dialogue about its programs, even controversial ones like “E-Verify” – a system that Congress may require all U.S. employers to use for running federal background checks on every single new employee.

Openness is healthy, and the comments to a recent post on E-Verify by my old friend DHS Assistant Secretary for Policy Stewart Baker are poking some holes in his somewhat facile analysis. I’ll weigh in with a little more, based mostly on my recent paper “Electronic Employment Eligibility Verification: Franz Kafka’s Solution to Illegal Immigration.”

Baker says that critics claim the error rate in E-Verify is as high as 4% and will lead to millions of Americans losing their jobs by mistake. To refute this, he points to a study commissioned by the Department of Homeland Security showing that 94.2% of new hires in a sample of 1,000 E-Verify queries were automatically verified, 0.5% resolved a mismatch, and 5.3% received a final nonconfirmation (that is, they either didn’t try or couldn’t challenge the finding that they were ineligible for employment under U.S. immigration law).

Unfortunately, Baker doesn’t point to the actual study. He just links to a picture of a conclusion from it, so we can’t do much to analyze these figures. If these are the results from reviewing only 1,000 new hires by current E-Verify users, that is far too small a sample and too skewed a group to reflect what would happen were the program taken national.

And he concludes: “Of the thousand, 942 are instantly verified. Instant verification of legal workers surely can’t be an error.” Of course it can! Any number of the 942 might have been illegal immigrants who submitted the name and Social Security Number of a legal worker to the employer.

But putting Baker’s glib, erroneous conclusion aside, I believe the 4% figure cited by critics is not about today’s small E-Verify program. It’s the error rate in the Social Security Administration’s Numident database found by the SSA’s own Inspector General (and it’s 4.1%!). Simple math suggests that this would produce a tentative nonconfirmation in 1 out of 25 new hires in the country were E-Verify to go national.

In fairness, that simple math may actually be simplistic – perhaps some cohorts have higher error rates and others lower. We know, for example, that naturalized citizens suffer error rates in the area of 10%. Perhaps older citizens that are leaving the workforce have higher error rates, leaving a lower error rate among current workers. And over time, the error rate would drop as workers were sent from their jobs to Social Security Administration offices trying to get their paperwork in order. (Put aside for now that the SSA takes more than 500 days to issue disability rulings.)

Baker’s conclusion that the 5.3% of workers finally nonconfirmed are illegal workers is without support. The statistic just as easily could show that the 5.3% of law-abiding American-citizen workers are given tentative nonconfirmations, and they find it impossible to get them resolved. More likely, some were dismissed by employers, never informed that there was a problem with E-Verify; some didn’t have the paperwork, the time, or the skills to navigate the bureaucracy; and some were illegal workers who went in search of work elsewhere, including under the table.

American workers pushed out of the workforce by E-Verify – Baker treats it as “common sense” that they’re illegal aliens, and he doesn’t look any further. The E-Verify program does the same - it has no system for contesting or appealing final nonconfirmations.

With his post, Secretary Baker has only raised the question of error rates in E-Verify. There are many sources of error in a system like this, and making it bigger would reveal more. Just because you have a glass coffee table, that doesn’t mean you can build a glass sundeck.

And we shouldn’t take our eye off the ball. “Mission creep” is a governmental law of gravity. Once in place, a national E-Verify system would be used to give the federal government direct regulatory control over law-abiding Americans. Federal authorities would use it to control not just work, but housing, financial services, and access to alcohol, tobacco, and firearms – for starters. Secretary Baker himself recently suggested using a national ID to control our access to cold medicine. The list of things his successors might do is endless.

The Perverse Incentives of Eminent Domain

Over at the Show-Me Institute’s blog, my former colleague Dave Stokes notices a great example of the kind of damage eminent domain has done to our economy:

Kevin Minden studied a map of the future Mississippi River bridge, looking for clues as to how it might affect his engine rebuilding shop.

One of the connector ramps will run a few blocks from his building, which has him concerned that the bridge might lead to a development boom. Minden fears losing his land to a developer.

“Everything in that area is old,” Minden said. “What are they wanting people to see when they drive across?”

Of course in a rational world, business owners would welcome a development boom because it would mean more business and higher property values. But under the eminent domain laws currently in force in Missouri, re-development is a threat to existing business owners, especially smaller ones, who are likely to be pushed out of the way to make room for new shopping malls, big-box retail stores, and the like. It’s a serious problem. I documented Missouri’s flawed eminent domain laws in a study for the Show-Me Institute last year, but the problem certainly isn’t limited to the Show-Me state. In last year’s eminent domain report card from the Institute for Justice, only five states had done the kind of comprehensive reform necessary to earn an “A” grade, while almost half of states—Missouri included—received a “D” or “F” grade, suggesting that they have done little or nothing to strengthen property rights. Further reforms are needed to ensure that property owners in all 50 states can be secure in the knowledge that they won’t be shoved aside for the benefit of another private party.

Lieberman: Censor

The Google Public Policy blog has a write up of the company’s recent interactions with Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT) and his staff regarding some videos hosted on YouTube.

Senator Lieberman thinks that certain terrorism videos shouldn’t be displayed. Well, actually, a U.S. Senator has no business telling anyone what information should or shouldn’t be published. Congress can pass a law on the subject, which law would never pass First Amendment muster.

Perhaps Senator Lieberman thinks that censoring communications is some kind of anti-terrorism policy. Advocacy of terrorism of glorification of terrorist acts is stupid and dastardly, but the cure for bad speech is more speech or better speech, not censorship.

REAL ID Update From the Upper Midwest

The upper Midwest is where the REAL ID action is these days. Our national ID law is getting its airing in the lands of lutefisk and cheese.

In Minnesota, Governor Tim Pawlenty (R) vetoed an entire transportation bill to spike anti-REAL ID provisions that the legislature had included. The legislature turned around and passed a free-standing anti-REAL ID bill with a veto-proof majority.

Now Pawlenty is seeking to make patsies of the legislature. Along with vetoing the new bill, he issued an executive order that would prevent Minnesota’s full compliance with the federal Real ID program before June 1, 2009 unless the legislature approves. That sounds good - until you realize that the Department of Homeland Security’s current deadline for even pledging to comply is October 11, 2009.

Pawlenty’s executive order conceded nothing to his state’s legislators, whom he’s treating as dupes.

Turning to Wisconsin, Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner’s (R) advocacy for REAL ID has garnered himself an opponent in the state’s September 9 Republican primary. Jim Burkee, an associate professor of history at Concordia University Wisconsin, has published a thorough piece on REAL ID, titled “‘The Sensenbrenner Tax’ Abandons True Conservatism.”

Rep. Sensenbrenner reportedly soured the Wisconsin Republican Party’s convention by trashing fellow Republicans over their reluctance to go along with the national ID law. A week ago, he leveled a shrill attack on the Wisconsin governor when Governor Doyle (D) announced plans to take more than $20 million out of the state’s REAL ID account and transfer it into the state’s general fund.

Watch this space for more interesting developments.

Rep. Tom Davis, Republican Brand Mangler - Er, Manager

In the opening segment of this week’s Washington Week on PBS, Representative Tom Davis (R-VA) commented on the viability of the Republican party in the upcoming elections: “The Republican brand name - if you were to put this on a dog food - the owners would just take it off the shelf because nobody’s buying it.”

Davis has more than a little responsibility for these circumstances. He’s been a consistent cheerleader of the REAL ID Act, for example, the moribund national ID law. He has consistently pressed and promoted REAL ID. He claimed that imposing $17 billion in costs on state governments is not an unfunded mandate, and pretended like shaking $50 million in federal money loose made any difference. Davis saluted the final regulations when they were issued earlier this year.

In a REAL ID story including Davis, Federal Computer Week saw fit to note that he “represents a Northern Virginia district heavily populated by federal employees and government contractors.”

P.J. O’Rourke comments in the most recent Cato’s Letter: “It took a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives 40 years—from 1954 to 1994—to get … corrupt and arrogant, and the Republicans did it in just 12.” Being wrong on liberty, even in service to your district’s government contractors, is not good for your party’s brand, Mr. Davis.