Topic: International Economics and Development

Government Spying on Foreign Customers Is Bad for U.S. Business

I’ll leave the privacy/con law issues related to the latest government spying reports to my Cato colleagues who know about these things. I just wanted to mention one economic aspect of all this. Orin Kerr notes the following over at the Volokh Conspiracy

Here’s an excerpt from a forthcoming article of mine … :

The reality of global Internet access means that U.S.-based Internet services often have a heavily foreign customer base. Consider Gmail, the popular e-mail service provided by Google. Google is headquartered in California, and its servers currently reside there. But Gmail’s business is truly international, and slightly less than 30% of Gmail’s users reside in the United States. This chart shows the percentage of Gmail’s users that are in a handful of different countries as of 2012:

United States 29.7%

India 8.9%

Japan 3.4%

Russia 3.3%

Brazil 3.2%

United Kingdom 2.9%

China 2.7%

Iran 2.6%

Facebook’s user base is even more heavily foreign than is Gmail’s user base. To be sure, using Facebook has become as American as apple pie: About 54% of Americans presently have a Facebook account. At the same time, only about 16% of Facebook’s users are located in the United States. The rest, about 84%, access Facebook from abroad. For United States-based services like Gmail and Facebook, United States users form a small subset of its global customer base.

It sounds like the PRISM program takes advantage of that by giving the NSA access to the computers of the major U.S. based providers so it can search for the information of non-U.S. persons—subject to the NSA’s judgment of who is a non-U.S. person—and monitor them in realtime.

It seems to me that this revelation can’t be good for these companies in terms of use by non-Americans. Who wants to use a communication service that the U.S. government uses to spy on you? Not many people, I’m guessing. As a result, there may be a great opportunity here for foreign-based internet companies to market themselves with a slogan along the lines of, “We won’t give the U.S. government access to your email account.” So, in addition to all of the obvious downsides of a massive government spying operation, we may also be driving foreign customers away from U.S. businesses.

Moral of the Story: Tax Havens Are Okay if You’re a Politically Connnected Statist

Earlier this year, I had some fun when it was revealed that the president’s new Treasury Secretary had a lot of money in the Cayman Islands.

After all, leftists want us to believe tax havens are rogue regimes that should be eliminated. Some of them even want military intervention against these low-tax jurisdictions!

Much to my amusement, Mr. Lew even pretended he was financially illiterate to justify making sensible decisions to invest via the Cayman Islands.

And unlike the president’s first Treasury Secretary, Mr. Lew didn’t break the law and cheat on his tax return.

You probably won’t be surprised to learn that Secretary Lew wasn’t the first Democrat to utilize tax havens. Lawmakers such as John Kerry, Bill Clinton, John Edwards, and others on the left also have utilized tax havens to boost their own personal finances.

And it appears that Mr. Lew won’t be the last Democrat to be caught with his hands in the cookie jar.

Here’s some of what’s being reported by the New York Times in regard to the president’s nominee to be U.S. Trade Representative:

Michael Froman, a longtime White House economic aide nominated to be President Obama’s trade representative, has nearly half a million dollars in a fund based in the Cayman Islands, according to financial documents provided to the Senate Finance Committee. …White House officials said Mr. Froman played no role in creating, managing or operating the investment funds and had done nothing wrong. “Mike Froman has paid every penny of his taxes and reported all of the income, gains and losses from the investment on his tax returns,” Mr. Whithorne said.

I don’t remember that compliance with the tax law mattered when Obama and the media were going after Romney in 2012 for legally investing in the Cayman Islands.

Could it be that tax havens are okay, but only if you support big government?

Mirror, Mirror on the Wall, Which Country Has the Most Expensive Bureaucrats of All?

I’ve complained endlessly about America’s bloated and expensive government bureaucracies. It irks me that people in the productive sector get slammed with ever-higher taxes in part to support a gilded class of paper pushers who have climbed on the gravy train of public sector employment.

It even bothers me that bureaucrats put in fewer hours on the job than private-sector workers, even though I realize the economy probably does better when government employees are lazy (after all, we probably don’t want hard-working OSHA inspectors, Fannie and Freddie regulators, and IRS bureaucrats).

But sometimes it helps to realize that things could be worse. And based on some international data from my “friends” at the OECD, let’s be thankful the United States isn’t Denmark.

That’s because nearly 20 percent of Denmark’s economic output is diverted to pay the salaries and benefits of bureaucrats, compared to “only” about 11 percent of GDP in the United States.

Bureaucrat Costs

Not only are bureaucrats nearly twice as expensive in Denmark as in the United States, they’re also much more expensive in Denmark than in other Nordic nations.

Speaking of Nordic nations, they tend to get bad scores because a very large share of their populations are feeding at the government employment teat.

Bureaucrat share of labor force

Whether we’re looking at the total cost of the bureaucracy or the number of bureaucrats, the United States is a middle-of-the-pack country.

But I am somewhat surprised by some of the other results.

  • Germany is significantly better than the United States, whether measured by the cost of the bureaucracy or the size of the bureaucracy.
  • Japan also does much better than America, notwithstanding that nation’s other problems.
  • In the I’m-not-surprised category, France does poorly and Switzerland does well.
  • To see where bureaucrats are most overpaid, look at the nations (particularly Greece, but also Portugal and Spain) where overall pay is a very large burden but bureaucrats are not a big share of the workforce.
  • To see where the trends are most worrisome, look at the changes over time. The total cost of bureaucracy, for instance, jumped considerably between 2000 and 2009 in Ireland, Greece, the United Kingdom, Denmark, Spain, and the United States. So much for “austerity.”

P.S. These numbers are only for OECD nations, so it’s quite possible that other jurisdictions are worse. To cite just one example, I was one of the researchers for the Miller-Shaw Commission, which discovered several years ago that fiscal problems in the Cayman Islands are almost entirely a function of too many bureaucrats with too much compensation.

P.P.S. Here’s my video on the cost of bureaucracy in the United States.

P.P.P.S. Denmark has a bloated and costly bureaucracy, but it compensates by having very pro-market policies in areas other than fiscal policy.

P.P.P.P.S. Perhaps the numbers are bad in Denmark because people like Robert Nielson are listed on government payrolls as independent leisure consultants?

Beijing Rising: The New Nation that Is China

I’m in Beijing for a conference organized by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. We have a short but intensive program, with several American and Chinese scholars as well as Chinese political officials. I just hope I will be semi-conscious, since the 12-hour time difference means a flip of day and night.

As we drove into the city I was reminded how much the country has changed over the last two decades or so since my first trip here.  We flew in on Air China, which is fully competitive with Western airlines. The airport is modern. Some of the passport clerks actually smile.

Once clearing passport control, there are no further barriers to entry. No one questions you as you head out of customs on to your next flight or into the Beijing.  A freeway leads into what looks like a modern city. Colorful advertising showcases Western as well as Chinese products and styles. Kentucky Fried Chicken and Pizza Hut make their appearance.

Some of the office buildings sport their names in English as well as Chinese. We are staying at an older hotel, the Wanshou, which was originally built in 1966 to house foreign guests. It retains the overall feel of old communist construction but has been refurbished, making it quite comfortable. The Wanshou passed my test of serving Diet Coke, but the gym opens at 9—which suggests it doesn’t have a lot of Western guests.

However, quibbles aside, Beijing is a modern city. It was moving in that direction 20 or 25 years ago, but it’s now there.

Perhaps the most dramatic and obvious change is the traffic. Chinese cities once were renowned for their swarms of cyclists, who weaved in and out of what appeared to be constant chaos on the roads. Today the swarms are made up of automobiles. To reduce traffic, Beijing actually bars residents from driving certain days depending on their license plate numbers, but, noted one of my hosts, more Chinese are wealthier and therefore can afford a second car—and thus a second license plate.

Rural China remains poor and underdeveloped, but even that is changing.  China poses a serious geopolitical challenge to America, but it is important to keep two basic factors in mind. 

First, hundreds of millions of people who once would have died in immiserating poverty now enjoy much better lives.  Second, while one should never underestimate the appeal of nationalism, all Chinese now have much at stake in a peaceful regional and global order.  While the future remains uncertain, there are good reasons to hope for, and even expect, a productive and cooperative future.

On to the conference!

Imaginary Squabbles Part 3: Krugman and DeLong’s Changing Theories and Missing Facts

Responding to a student question after a recent Kansas State debate with Brad DeLong I posed a conceptual puzzle.  I asked students to ponder why textbooks treat Treasury sales of government bonds as a “stimulus” to demand (nominal GDP) in the same sense as Federal Reserve purchases of such bonds.  “Those are very different polices,” I noted; “Why should they have the same effect?”  

The remark was intended to encourage students to probe more deeply into what such metaphors as “stimulating” or “jump starting” really mean, not to accept as dogma that fiscal and monetary policy are equally effective or that economists are certain just how they work.

DeLong’s misinterpretation of my question led him to lecture me that, “if you really do think that monetary expansion undoes fiscal expansion because monetary expansion buys bonds and fiscal expansion sells bonds, you need to educate yourself.” Citing that wholly imaginary rewriting of my question, Paul Krugman wrote, “My heart goes out to Brad DeLong, who debated Alan Reynolds and discovered that his opponent really doesn’t understand at all how either fiscal or monetary policy work.”

Did I really say that “monetary expansion undoes fiscal expansion”?  Of course not.  If that had been my question, I would have answered myself by saying that piling more debt on the backs of taxpayers is unlikely to stimulate private spending (much less encourage more or better labor and capital) unless the added debt is “monetized” by the Fed and regulators allow banks to lend more to private borrowers.  DeLong made much the same point by saying, “Expansionary monetary policy makes it a sure thing that expansionary fiscal policy is effective by removing the channels for interest-rate and tax crowding out.” 

The Fed’s current bond-buying spree is bound to have some effect, if only to facilitate cheap corporate buybacks of shares and speculative day trading of such stocks on margin.   But selling more government bonds per se (if the Fed won’t buy more) would be just as much an added burden for taxpayers as it would be a benefit to whoever receives the resulting government transfers, contracts or subsidies. 

This make-believe squabble about monetary expansion undoing fiscal expansion exists only in DeLong’s imagination, like my non-prediction of mammoth inflation or Krugman’s non-facts about Ireland’s fiscal frugality.

Accounting for the Industrial Revolution

This is the most important question in economics: Why did the Industrial Revolution happen when and where it did–and not before or elsewhere? Fail to understand that and you may enact policies that will kill the unprecedented human progress it launched: a multiplication in the average worldwide per-capita income of between 16 and 100 times in the span of just 200 years. Compare that to the preceding thousands of years over which worldwide per-capita income was largely unchanged.

In her brilliant 2011 book Bourgeois Dignity, economist and historian Deirdre McCloskey shot down every leading explanation for this “Great Fact,” and then offered a new one: in the Netherlands and then Britain, entrepreneurship was accorded a widespread liberty and respectability it had never before enjoyed in human history. McCloskey will speak at the Cato Institute on this and related topics on June 20th at noon.

This exquisitely elegant explanation packs enormous punch for students of the history of economics. Among other things, it explains why the ancient Greeks–who invented democracy, the core forms of Western literature, joint-stock corporations, commercial insurance, and even steam-powered toys–never enjoyed an industrial revolution of their own. (The ancient Greek elites abhorred the idea of working for a living.)

As yet, though, there is no “implementation detail” for the Liberty and Dignity theory. Bourgeois Dignity is so successful at shooting down earlier explanations for the Great Fact because it describes the mechanisms by which they are proposed to have driven economic growth and then shows that the magnitude of their impact is simply insufficient. So far, it doesn’t seem that anyone has proposed a specific, quantitatively testable mechanism by which the change in popular rhetoric could have precipitated the 16-to-100-times innovation explosion.

To get the ball rolling, below is one proposal for such a mechanism. (Disclaimer 1: this is not my day job. Disclaimer 2: it wouldn’t be that easy to quantify–sorry.)

Liberty and Dignity for entrepreneurs/tinkerers/merchants raised the number of clever, dedicated innovators beyond a threshold that had never before been reached. Below that threshold, would-be innovators would often have hit stumbling blocks that they could not overcome, e.g., needing some as-yet-uninvented process/material/tool/concept to complete/commercialize their own innovation. Without that missing piece, their innovative efforts would have failed. Above that threshold, cross-pollination among innovators would have drastically reduced the number of insurmountable problems–innovators would increasingly have been able to borrow from their predecessors and contemporaries who were working on related problems. This cross-pollination would have required inexpensive information storage and retrieval (i.e., books), but it also would have required a critical mass of innovators simultaneously working on a vast array of problems, a critical mass that the widespread Liberty and Dignity for entrepreneurs created for the first time.

Call it, “James Burke’s Connections meets Deirdre McCloskey’s Dignity.” Just a thought.

Imaginary Squabbles Part 2: Krugman and DeLong on Ireland

A short 2010 article of mine in Politico, which still annoys Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong, dealt with Ireland’s brief effort to restrain spending, which (while it lasted) was smarter than imposing uncompetitive tax rates as Greece had done. 

Krugman ridiculed my Politico article in at least four columns.  He imagines I predicted a “boom” in Ireland, because I wrote in June 2010 that, “the Irish economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery.”  That the Irish economy was turning up at the time is undeniable. Although I did not yet have the benefit of real GDP data, Ireland’s GDP was clearly rising before the third quarter of 2010 in this Krugman graph and this one.  What went wrong? Bonds and the economy collapsed after Black Thursday, September 30, when the government wasted millions on a gigantic bailout of Irish banks. My unforgivable blunder was in not predicting on June 9 what was going to happen on September 30.  Mea culpa.

Ironically, Krugman and I agree Ireland should have let the banks fail. We likely agree that is has been foolhardy to enact higher income tax rates in Ireland,  Portugal, Greece, Spain, France and the UK.   Although Krugman wants to label me “an austerian,” I have been rebuking IMF austerity schemes since 1978 for imposing rising tax rates and falling currencies on troubled countries.

There is another important point of agreement between Krugman and I, but only in recent years. In February 2004, I debunked fears that projected budget deficits would raise interest rates in a paper presented at the U.S. Treasury. That paper was largely aimed at Brookings Institution scholars but also at Krugman, who was “terrified about what will happen to interest rates once financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits.”  He has since come around to my view.

What Krugman and I cannot agree about, however, is his fantasy about Ireland’s “harsh spending cuts.” On The Colbert Report last year, for example, Krugman said, “Ireland is Romney economics in practice. They’ve … slashed spending; they’ve had extreme austerity programs.”

As the table below the jump shows, government spending as percent of GDP nearly doubled in Ireland, from 34.3 to 66.8 percent from 2006 and 2010, with bank bailouts after September 2010 pushing the deficit to 31.2 percent of GDP. By Krugman’s definition, Ireland had extremely “stimulative” spending and deficits since 2008. Does it matter that most spending since late 2010 was for bailing out bank creditors? Krugman’s new book says, “not at all: spending creates demand, whatever it’s for.”