Topic: International Economics and Development

Anti-Immigrant Opinions are Weakly Held II

[Here’s Anti-Immigrant Opinions are Weakly Held I.]

In his book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 Yale history professor Paul Kennedy makes the case that, historically, great powers have risen to a point where they have become overextended because of their imperial commitments and the expenditures needed to defend them, at which point they have collapsed.

I was reminded of this when I saw the television ad Rep. Tom Tancredo is running in Iowa. (It’s getting much more play in the blogosphere than he could ever afford to buy.)

By equating immigrants to terrorists, this leader of the anti-immigrant right is shedding credibility - the coin of the political realm - at a furious pace. His argument just doesn’t square with the real world or the common sense judgments good American people make for themselves.

Anti-immigrant opinions have reached their apex. The cartoonish quality of Tancredo’s hysteria-mongering presages the fall. See for yourself.

Sarkozy Attacks Capitalism Again

French President Nicolas Sarkozy may be “right wing” by French standards, but that still puts him on the left side of the spectrum on economic issues. In a recent speech, he again embraced protectionism and said Europe should avoid “untrammelled capitalism.” But since Europe has avoided so-called untrammeled capitalism for the past 100 years or so, he can probably put his mind at rest. The EU Observer reports:

French president Nicolas Sarkozy has outlined a vision for Europe that would see “untramelled” capitalism pushed far down the political hierarchy to be replaced by a focus on cultural and spiritual issues with more than a hint of European protectionism. …Noting that “economic values seem to win the day over other values,” Mr Sarkozy said that it is a mistake to overlook culture. …The French leader gave a lot of time to protectionism - a concept that has fallen out of favour in the EU since the more market-oriented eastern member states joined the bloc in 2004, coupled with the current European Commission with its strong liberal profile. “The word protection should be not be outlawed,” said the president adding that “we must be able to protect ourselves as much as others do.” …He went on to say that while Europe has chosen a market economy and capitalism, this should not give rise to “untrammelled capitalism.”

Flat Tax Generating Big Results in Georgia

Alvin Rabushka has some remarkable data on the positive impact of tax reform in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. The economy has been roaring since the enactment of a 12 percent flat tax, with growth of 10 percent per year. And in news that should make the IMF happy, there’s been a big Laffer-Curve effect, with revenues rising dramatically as a share of GDP (though this should be a reason to cut rates even further):

Effective January 1, 2005, Georgia (the country, not the U.S. State) adopted a flat tax of 12%, replacing its previous four-bracket system. The flat tax was augmented with a 20% tax on corporate profits, 20% on social insurance (reduced from 33%), and 18% (reduced from 20%) on VAT. The new, simpler system has had a dramatic effect on economic growth, averaging 10% a year for the past three years, and taxpayer compliance. Tax revenue increased from 14.5% of GDP in 2003 to 22% in 2006, and should reach 24% in 2007. Between 2003 and 2007, the reforms reduced the number of taxes from 22 to 7.

Supermodels and Monetary Policy

I’m not sure she qualifies as a leading economic indicator, but Gisele Bundchen’s demand to be paid in euros is the latest sign that the dollar may be losing its position as the world’s reserve currency. A supermodel’s currency choice may not be as important as the dollar’s slide against the euro, and it may not mean much compared to the rise in gold prices, but if these other factors aren’t convincing the Fed to protect the value of the dollar, maybe a visit from Gisele would do the trick. Bloomberg reports:

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world’s richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar. …”Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don’t know what will happen to the dollar,” Patricia Bundchen, the model’s twin sister and manager in Brazil, said in a telephone interview in September from Sao Paulo. She declined to discuss details of the arrangements last week, as did Anne Nelson, Bundchen’s agent in New York at IMG Models. …Wealthy clients at San Francisco-based Union Bank of California have doubled their deposits in foreign currencies to $60 million the past two months as a hedge against a decline, said Bradley Shairson, head of currency and derivatives at the bank. …That’s the same strategy as sovereign wealth funds run by the largest exporters and oil producers, including China, Singapore and Qatar, said Stephen Jen, head of currency research at New York-based Morgan Stanley. The funds may grow to $17.5 trillion by 2017 from $2.5 trillion now and shift more than $500 billion out of the dollar in the next three years in search of better returns, he said. “We’re all thinking about diversifying out of the dollar,” said Jen, who is based in London. “It’s a very logical thing.”

Excellent Story Shows Benefits of Tax Havens

Reporting from London, The Business notes that so-called tax havens are among the world’s richest jurisdictions. But rather than emulating success, high-tax nations attack these free-market outposts — with the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development leading the charge:

Of the 20 wealthiest nations, 13 of them are low-tax territories. …In the past few years, politicians from the developed world have led a determined assault on tax havens. …The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has led a series of attacks on the world’s tax havens, accusing them of complicity in money laundering and of lacking transparency. At one point the French government advocated an international boycott of tax havens, arguing that EU banks should refuse to deal with them. …Even the Vatican has joined the campaign. Pope Benedict XVI was reported last month to be working on a doctrinal pronouncement that will condemn tax evasion as “socially unjust”, while the planned encyclical — the most authoritative statement a pope can issue — will denounce the use of tax havens and offshore bank accounts by wealthy individuals, on the grounds that they reduce the tax revenues raised for the benefit of society as a whole (although curiously the Vatican hasn’t reacted so well to proposals by the Italian government to curb the Catholic church’s own tax break). But instead of attacking tax havens, other countries should be trying to learn from them. The way they lead the global wealth rankings is testament to the power of lower taxes to raise overall living standards. 

The story explains that the demagoguery against low-tax jurisdictions — particularly regarding charges of money laundering — is false (something that is confirmed by both international bureaucracies and U.S. government sources):

[T]hough money laundering through the Cayman Islands may be a staple of popular fiction, there isn’t much evidence for it in the real world. Most criminals launder the proceeds of the crimes domestically, since they are well aware that moving their money across borders only increases the chances of detection. Terrorists use traditional networks of money changers — not banks in Jersey.

The article closes with an excellent summary of the key issues. Tax competition constrains politicians and it encourages policies that make ordinary people richer, and tax havens play a key role in this process:

Low-tax territories provide an alternative to the high-tax world. They impose some discipline on governments elsewhere, restricting the amount they can raise in taxes by providing an escape route. But more importantly, they demonstrate the ability of lower taxes to consistently raise living standards, even in the most unpromising locations. Maybe it is time to stop hammering the tax havens — and start trying to learn from them instead.

Tax Competition Drives Good Policy in Canada

A National Post report from Canada illustrates how jurisdictional competition pushes policymakers to adopt better tax law. Indeed, both the left and right are fighting over who can make the biggest reduction in the corporate tax rate. As the article notes, this is a remarkable development since politicians used to treat companies as cash cows.

With nations all over the world lowering corporate rates, America’s punitive tax treatment of business is becoming an even bigger obstacle to competitiveness:

Who would have thought federal politics would come to this: Liberals and Conservatives competing over who would lower corporate taxes the most! …That…marks an amazing turn of fortune, an historic reversal of at least half a century of corporate-bashing tax increases, of surtaxes on taxes, of capital taxes piled on surtaxes rolled over from year to year.

…[T]here is certainly much to be said for [Canadian Prime Minister] Flaherty’s corporate tax objectives. First he aims to get the federal tax rate down to 15% by 2012. Then he wants the provinces to join the national corporate tax competition by cutting their rates to 10%, thus lowering Canada’s nationwide corporate tax rate to 25%. That means, said Mr. Flaherty, that “Canada’s corporate tax rate will become the lowest among the major industrialized economies.” It’s a good objective — for the economy, for growth, for innovation — and a sign perhaps that most Canadians have come to appreciate that nations and their citizens get rich by freeing business enterprises rather than by plundering them for instant cash.

…Countries all over the planet are rushing to trim tax rates on business… Jack Mintz, of the University of Toronto, pointed out yesterday that Italy has just slashed that rate by 4.5 percentage points. Other countries are cutting rates in large increments of up to seven percentage points, as in Germany. The new Flaherty cuts are good, says Mr. Mintz, but not good enough. “Why not cut rates right away?” It’s also not clear that 25% is low enough to maximize business activity and attract business investment to Canada. In his recent tax competitiveness study for the C.D. Howe Institute, Mr. Mintz called for a national corporate tax rate of 20%.

…The next needed political transformation: It’s OK to cut taxes on the rich.

Anti-Immigrant Opinions are Weakly Held

I didn’t watch Tuesday’s Democratic debate – watching politicians from either party outbid each other on faux outrage and how much of my money they would spend is too annoying – but I did get the after-action report on the Newshour. And it seems Senator Clinton was drawn into the vortex New York Governor Eliot Spitzer (D) created with his recent flip-flop on driver licensing and public safety.

His original decision to de-link driver licensing and immigration status for public safety reasons was right, but it was pounced on and demagogued by anti-immigrant groups. Spitzer backed down, and pledged his state to implement the REAL ID Act, pleasing nobody. (When the costs of this national ID law to New York are discovered, he’ll flip-flop again, earning quiet, broad-based appreciation.)

Watching the excerpts of the candidates bumbling around this issue, it appeared to me that they knew giving licenses to illegal immigrants is the right and practical thing to do, but also that they would get demagogued if they said so.

Well, here’s my advice: Go ahead and say it.

Having watched this issue, and having heard from lots of angry people, I know that anti-immigrant views are a classic weakly held opinion. Angry as people are about the rule of law and “coming to this country the right way,” that anger melts when they learn more. Stuff like this:

“We haven’t permitted anywhere near enough legal immigration for decades. You can sit back and talk about legal channels, but the law has only allowed a smidgen of workers into the country compared to our huge demand. Getting people through legal channels at the INS has been hell.

“America, you’re going to have to get over what amounts to paperwork violations by otherwise law-abiding, honest, hard-working people. And that’s what we’re talking about - 98% honest, hard-working people who want to follow the same path our forefathers did, and who would be a credit to this country if we made it legal for them to come. Our current immigration policies are a greater threat to the rule of law than any of the people crossing the border to come here and work.”

This kind of argumentation will be met with vicious demagoguery, which will weaken, and weaken, and fade and fade and fade. The people I hear from – and I regularly do because of the educating I’ve been doing nationwide on the REAL ID Act – immediately soften when I pull them from their echo chambers. The “rule of law” hand is a low pair compared to this full house: “honest, hard-worker from impoverished circumstances, denied legal channels other than a narrow chance of navigating an incompetent bureaucracy.”

There’s one Democratic candidate who is well suited to make this kind of argument. It’s a way to draw attention, look principled, do the right thing, and vanquish a loud but weak pressure group. New Mexico’s uninsured driver rate dropped by two-thirds – from 33% to 11% – when that state delinked immigration status and driving in 2003.