Topic: International Economics and Development

Zimbabwe’s Four-Year Anniversary—From Hyperinflation to Growth

In mid-November 2008, Zimbabwe recorded the world’s second-highest hyperinflation. Today, it can boast strong growth and single-digit inflation rates. In 2008, Zimbabwe’s annual real GDP growth rate was a miserable -17.6 percent and its annual inflation rate was 89.7 sextillion percent—that’s roughly 9 followed by 22 zeros.

So how did Zimbabwe go from economic ruin to an annual GDP growth rate of 9.32 percent in 2011, with estimates of relatively strong growth rates through 2013?  As I predicted in early 2008, the answer is simple: spontaneous dollarization brought an end to the horrors of hyperinflation.

In late 2008, the people of Zimbabwe spontaneously dollarized the economy. Thiers’ Law prevailed: good money drove out bad, and the government’s hands were tied. Indeed, the government was forced to officially dollarize in 2009. Since then, Zimbabwe has enjoyed positive GDP growth rates, a feat not accomplished since 2001 (see accompanying chart).

 

While these achievements are cause for celebration, there are still problems in paradise: Robert Mugabe continues to hold the reins of power; Zimbabwe’s “Ease of Doing Business” ranking is a dismal 172nd out of 185; and “change” is, in short, hard to come by. In addition, the government’s external debt is now close to $12.5 billion and lending rates between Zimbabwe’s embattled banks are as high as 25 percent. To top it off, the Zimbabwean government is attempting to force banks to buy its treasury bills at significantly discounted rates, after its debt auction flopped in early October. Talk about ruling with an iron fist.

If this isn’t bad enough, Zimbabwe’s official statistics have produced a very low signal-to-noise ratio—one that, quite frankly, leaves one listening to static. Both the quantity and quality of official data, ranging from migration statistics to trade figures, are in short supply, particularly data from the period of Zimbabwe’s 2007-08 hyperinflation.

None of this comes to a surprise to me. After all, as far as Zimbabwean officials are concerned, the country’s hyperinflation peaked in July 2008, with a monthly inflation rate of 2,600 percent. After this point, Zimbabwe stopped collecting and reporting data on price changes, throwing a shroud of secrecy over the country’s hyperinflation disaster. In reality, hyperinflation continued after July 2008, growing at an exponential rate until mid-November 2008.

Alex Kwok and I lifted the shroud on this hyperinflation in our 2009 Cato Journal article. We determined that Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation actually peaked in mid-November 2008, with a monthly rate over 30 million times higher than the final inflation rate reported by the government. In an attempt to correct the government’s lying statistics, I have contacted high officials in Zimbabwe via telephone and email. But, I have been stonewalled, given a bureaucratic runaround.

The last thing the Mugabe government seems to be interested in is an accurate account of the world’s second-highest hyperinflation. Lying statistics remain the order of the day.

‘Un-American’ Trade Disputes

Borrowing the title from a Stephen Colbert segment, this blog post is going to be about trade disputes not involving America. Given recent trade rhetoric, you might think that all trade disputes are about the U.S. and China, but that’s not the case. Other countries have disputes, too, and some of them are very interesting, getting into the core issue of what international trade rules should be about.

First up is a complaint by Canada and Norway against the EU related to a ban on “seal products.”  According to the EU regulation at issue, seal products means “all products, either processed or unprocessed, deriving or obtained from seals, including meat, oil, blubber, organs, raw fur skins and fur skins, tanned or dressed, including fur skins assembled in plates, crosses and similar forms, and articles made from fur skins.”  Under the regulation, with limited exceptions, seal products may not be imported or sold in the EU.

Canada and Norway have a significant seal harvest, and are concerned about lost sales in the EU market (as well as the spread of the EU policy to other countries).  The main legal claims (a very rough version, anyway) are that the EU Regulation discriminates against Canadian/Norwegian seal products in favor of competing EU products, and that the regulation is more trade-restrictive than necessary.

This case helps illustrate the scope of international trade rules.  Writing about the case a couple years ago, blogger Matt Yglesias wondered

why the seal issue is being handled as a trade policy matter in the first place. In other words, why ban the import of seal products rather than simply ban selling seal products? Clearly the EU’s concern here is with the existence of a commercial market for dead seals rather than with the transnational flow of seals per se.

In fact, the law involves both an import ban and a general sales ban.  (Why separately ban imports when you have already banned sales?  Most likely for administrative convenience.  Importation is a good place to catch these things.)  But regardless, even if the law had not mentioned imports, a general sales ban could have been challenged at the WTO.  This is an important point that Yglesias doesn’t seem to realize, and if he missed this, I suspect others might miss it as well.  In what way are general product bans covered by WTO rules?  For one thing, even facially neutral measures may in fact be cases of disguised protectionism, having a disparate impact on foreign products.  For another, as noted, there are rules that prohibit domestic laws from being more trade restrictive than necessary.  Such rules go beyond simple protectionism, and provide another way to challenge a general product ban.  Do some of these rules intrude too far into domestic affairs?  There is lot of debate about that in trade circles.

A second case has been brought by Ukraine against Australia, involving Australia’s “plain packaging” rules for cigarettes (the Dominican Republic and Honduras are likely to join the case), which require cigarettes to be sold in plain packages with no logos and a uniform font for the brand name.  Here, there are the same trade arguments as in the seal products case:  the measure is discriminatory, and more trade-restrictive than necessary.  Also, there are claims that plain packaging interferes with the tobacco companies’ trademarks, in violation of the WTO’s rules on intellectual property.

I thought it was worth mentioning these cases here for the following reason.  If international trade rules can be used to challenge any government law or regulation that affects trade, even if the measure is facially non-discriminatory, these international rules are going to be quite broad, and could have an impact on much, if not all, domestic governing.  It may be worth thinking about these issues to make sure we properly balance international governance and domestic policymaking, and these cases provide a good opportunity to do so.  (I wrote more about this in an op-ed for The Jurist on the plain packaging case.)  The cases are at an early stage, and it’s not clear how they will turn out.  But the mere fact that they are being tried in an international court is noteworthy.

One final point:  Just to be clear, I don’t mean to defend the laws at issue—the seal products ban and plain packaging for cigarettes—as a matter of policy.  Rather, I’m just focusing on whether they should be found in violation of international trade rules.

Fed Up in Old Blighty

Yesterday, the British coalition government (Conservatives and Liberal Democrats) suffered a major defeat in the House of Commons at the hands of some 50 Conservative rebels who want David Cameron, the Prime Minister, to veto any increase in the EU budget. The tone-deaf eurocrats in Brussels are demanding a 6.8 percent increase in the EU budget for 2013. All the while, most European governments are sinking deeper in the red. Quelle surprise!

Cameron has already promised to veto any spending increase above the inflation rate of 2.5 percent, but the Tory rebels demand that spending be frozen at the current level, which would amount to a cut in real spending. So, what now?

Cameron can ignore the non-binding parliamentary vote, but he was put on notice to take a hard line in Brussels. Most Tories realize that a cut in real spending is probably too much to hope for, but Cameron would do himself irreparable harm if he agreed to anything above a nominal increase. Some countries will not be pleased with the British stance and Cameron may yet have to veto the entire EU budget. It is impossible to ignore the growing euro-skepticism in Britain. Only last week, Theresa May, the Home Secretary, announced that Britain was withdrawing from some 130 EU-wide agreements in police and justice measures. Where is all of this heading? At present, it is not possible to tell whether the UK withdraws from the EU altogether or negotiates some sort of a looser membership agreement with the EU. One thing is clear, though: Europe’s troubles are far from over.

Building a Free Trade Area of Most of the Americas

Today the Free Trade Agreement between the United States and Panama went into effect. The United States now has FTAs with Canada and eleven Latin American countries stretching from Mexico to Chile. My colleague Bill Watson has a less enthusiastic view of the FTA with Panama here.

Last week during the third presidential debate, Mitt Romney talked about how the United States has not taken full advantage of trade opportunities with Latin America. Some experts, such as Ted Piccone at the Brookings Institution, were quick to point out that Romney’s call for expanded trade with Latin America isn’t very realistic since Washington already has in place FTAs with all the Latin American countries that want trade agreements with the United States while those who don’t, such as Brazil and Argentina, aren’t interested in one. However, that doesn’t mean that there’s no room for a substantial hemispheric trade agenda.

As we can see in the table below, the countries Washington has free trade agreements with in the Americas also have similar FTAs among themselves. There are some missing links here and there, but overall these countries have created a fragmented version of a free trade area of the Americas. One obvious problem of this is what Jagdish Bhagwati has called the “spaghetti bowl effect” of so many trade agreements with different rules of origin, tariff schedules and non tariff regulations.

There are some efforts underway to tackle this problem. For example, Mexico has individual FTAs with five Central American countries, but it’s now negotiating with them to merge all these trade agreements into one. Mexico has also announced the creation of the Pacific Alliance, a trade bloc that will also include Colombia, Peru and Chile.

The United States should lead an effort to merge all these regional FTAs into one single Free Trade Area of the Americas for these nations willing to be part of it. The negotiations could also help to complete those missing links in the hemispheric trade jigsaw puzzle. And once achieved, this FTAA would leave the door open for other Latin American countries that might want to join in the future (the most likely candidates would be Uruguay and Paraguay given their growing dissatisfaction with Mercosur).

Even though the United States wouldn’t gain much in terms of market access from such an FTAA, harmonizing trade rules along the continent would certainly help boost trade in the Americas. Moreover, the political cost would be minimal since Washington already has FTAs in place with all these countries.

Bill Clinton proposed the idea of a Free Trade Area of the Americas in 1994, though he quickly abandoned it despite wide interest in Latin America. The negotiations were finally launched in 2001 but fell apart in 2005 after it became obvious that countries such as Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela weren’t interested anymore. But this must not mean that the goal isn’t worth pursuing in a different way. There is a good case to be made for building an FTAA of the willing.

Free Trade and Other Things in Panama

The United States­–Panama Trade Promotion Agreement came into force today.  Ideally, trade agreements promote free trade by obligating each country involved to remove import barriers for goods coming from the other.  This agreement does just that, and Cato’s trade votes database counts a vote in favor of implementing the agreement as a vote opposing trade barriers.  But the history of this agreement and the current lack of free trade momentum make it difficult to get very excited.

This agreement was signed over five years ago in June of 2007 but was not ratified by Congress until December 2011.  Why did it take so long?  In order to make the deal more palatable to certain interests, Congressional leaders and the Obama administration held up a vote until additional side agreements and assurances were made by Panama.  These included a 2009 labor law that restricts the rights of nonunion workers in Panama, and a 2010 agreement that gives the U.S. government access to bank records of U.S. citizens in Panama.  Even the original agreement contained contentious non-trade obligations designed to further specific special interests; the last bits of implementing legislation that Panama enacted this fall were to expand its copyright laws and to provide patents for plants.

The agreement does lower barriers to trade in goods and services and open up government procurement markets in both countries, but the cost is sweetheart deals and handouts for Hollywood, U.S. agribusiness, and big labor.  The fact that this agreement faced so many obstacles is a bad sign for the future of free trade agreements in the United States, especially considering that Panama’s economy is roughly the size of North Dakota’s.  The obstacles that stalled and frustrated this agreement have very little to do with trade itself and will likely resurface in every free trade negotiation and implementation debate in the near future.

(Even if the goal is only export promotion, the U.S. government has better ways to do that than tinker with Panama’s intellectual property rules.  The long-planned expansion of the Panama Canal will finish in 2014; if Congress seriously wants to promote trade, it could work to make sure U.S. ports are able to accommodate the New Panamax-sized ships that will be traveling through.)

The United States signed 12 free trade agreements with 17 countries between 2000 and 2007, and none since.  President Obama is working on the Trans-Pacific Partnership which currently includes 10 other countries—but we already have agreements with all but four of them.  Governor Romney has proposed signing more agreements with countries in Latin America, but there aren’t a lot of countries left in that region that would be interested.  A genuine free trade agreement with Brazil would be excellent, but it would likely require reform of U.S. agriculture subsidies—a tough sell requiring political courage and a commitment to trade liberalization.

The entry into force of an agreement with Panama today ironically marks a low point in the health of the free trade consensus.  It is quite telling that free trade agreements are now called “trade promotion agreements” or merely “partnerships.”  The language of free trade is in desperate need of revival to ensure that these agreements do not become tools for exporters to pursue their special interests.  Expanding exports, improving American innovation, and creating jobs should be touted as (some of) the benefits of free trade, not as the goals of managed trade policy.  Free trade should be the only goal.

Romney’s Economic Advisers Pretend to Support Free Trade

Governor Romney’s economic advisers (Glenn Hubbard, Greg Mankiw, John Taylor, Kevin Hassett) have a short post about his economic plan.  In it, they sort of talk about trade issues:

Advancing international trade is another part of the plan. A recent study by the International Trade Commission concluded that reducing intellectual property violations [in] China could produce about 2 million jobs in the United States.  While that is, of course, an estimate, Governor Romney has made reducing barriers to trade with China []  a primary focus of his trade opening policy, and this advancement of trade clearly would be a large net positive for the successful idea-intensive firms that drive economic growth.

What’s important to note here is that these prominent, well-respected economists are not talking about free trade, despite their best efforts to make it seem like they are.  Free trade means reducing protectionism, both at home and abroad.  That means removing protectionist barriers to imports and exports, resulting in specialization of production and greater efficiency, among other things.  But that’s not what they are saying here.  Instead, they want to “advance” international trade by increasing exports to China, mainly through forcing China to strengthen intellectual property laws and enforcement.

Now, I’m not going to argue that there should be no intellectual property protection.  But I do question the notion that U.S. intellectual property standards are precisely where they should be, and that the rest of the world should do exactly what we do.  That may in fact be the case; however, nobody ever bothers trying to show it. And if I had to guess, I would say we probably over-protect intellectual property in a number of areas.

But the larger point here is that we shouldn’t let political advisers confuse the issues with deceptive rhetoric.  Free traders are not interested in “advancing” international trade by simply pushing for more exports.  If we were, we would support export subsidies.  Real free traders don’t!  What we want instead is the removal of protectionist barriers to trade (“ours” and “theirs”):  Tariffs, quotas, many subsidies, to name a few.

(To be fair, later they talk vaguely about how President Obama is not doing enough to promote trade agreements.  However, they never say anything positive about actual free trade, which is a bit strange because they all probably do support free trade.)

The Canadian Model for Fiscal Reform

In the Washington Post today, Brian Lee Crowley discusses the still little-known story of Canada’s

tremendous budgetary turnaround achieved in the mid-1990s. Over just a few years, between 1995 and 1998, Canada transformed a $32 billion federal deficit, equivalent to 4 percent of its gross domestic product, into a $2.5 billion surplus. This achievement was followed by a full decade of surplus budgets, with debt, tax and poverty rates all falling as growth, investment and employment rose.

Crowley discusses the reasons the success happened, from bipartisan (actually multipartisan) agreement to rallying public support. He promises six reasons, but lists only five. Maybe that’s part of the cutbacks. It’s an inspiring story: if Canada could cut federal spending from 22 percent of GDP to 15 percent, why can’t we?

And it’s a story you could have read in Cato Policy Report in May. Long-ago Canadian Chris Edwards, Cato’s director of tax policy studies, wrote:

In just two years, total noninterest spending fell by 10 percent, which would be like the U.S. Congress chopping $340 billion from this year’s noninterest federal spending of $3.4 trillion. When U.S. policymakers talk about “cutting” spending, they usually mean reducing spending growth rates, but the Canadians actually spent less when they reformed their budget in the 1990s.

And he offered this graphic depiction of the diverging fiscal picture in the United States and Canada:

Members of Congress: take note. Washington Post readers: You could have read it here first.