Topic: Government and Politics

Lula’s Heart vs Brazil’s Interests

Brazil’s president, Luiz Lula da Silva, has informed everyone whom he favors in today’s election: “This (financial) crisis, among other benefits it will cause, will get Obama elected as president of the United States. It will get a black man elected, which is no small matter.”

This is quite ironic. During Lula’s tenure as president of Brazil he has heavily focused his relationship with the United States on commercial issues, particularly two: the elimination of a U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol and the reduction of U.S. farm subsidies for which Brazil has refused to negotiate a Free Trade Area of the Americas. On both issues, John McCain favors Brazil’s interests while Obama opposes them.

McCain has said he would eliminate the tariff on Brazilian ethanol (which is probably costing him Iowa). Obama would keep it. McCain also voted against the farm bill which extended the agricultural subsidies that Lula complains so much about in international fora. Obama voted in favor of it.

It seems that Lula’s left-leaning heart has lead him to favor a candidate that goes against his country’s own interests.

Obama’s Pandering to Seniors

“Many seniors are struggling to keep pace with costs,” Senator Obama told a largely senior audience in Florida on September 18. Social Security benefits are adjusted for rising prices but not for rising taxes, including increased fees for Medicare. Using a line from his tax plan, Obama said, “This strain has been greater since 1993, when taxes on social security benefits were raised. Millions of seniors saw their net benefits go down.”

Thanks to Bill Clinton’s 1993 tax law, single seniors with incomes above $40,048 in 2007 had to pay income tax on 85% of a portion of their benefits, and those with income above $46,850 had to pay tax on 85% of their entire benefits. That 1993 tax increase hits couples with incomes above $54,278.

In retirement communities in key states like Florida and Arizona, Obama has cleverly tapped into senior resentment about the Clinton era, when “millions of seniors saw their net benefits go down.” But then he pulls a bait and switch trick.

Clinton’s 1993 tax hike reduced after-tax benefits for seniors earning more than $50,000—because they continued working after age 65 and/or because they saved for retirement.

Obama proposes to fix that by eliminating income tax for seniors earning less than $50,000. He says, “When I’m President, we’ll work to see that no retiree making less than $50,000 each year has to pay income tax. This will eliminate income taxes for about 7 million Americans, at a savings rate of roughly $1,400 each year. And 22 million seniors won’t even have to file a return and hire an expensive tax preparer.”

If Sally is 60 years old earns $49,000 by working, she would pay a higher income (and payroll) tax than Sam who is 66 and makes $49,000 from retirement income. Is there any rational explanation for that other than a shameless attempt to buy senior votes?

To help pay for such arbitrary tax favoritism, Obama wants to increase the tax rates on capital gains and dividends—two taxes that hit frugal seniors much harder than young people.

As I wrote in my Hillsdale College paper, “The argument for Obama’s tax plans is expressed in terms of fairness, rather than the impact on incentives and economic performance, yet the implied concept of fairness remains ambiguous. A single senior with a retirement income of $50,000 has the same per capita income as a two-earner family with $250,000 and three children. Yet the retired senior would be exempt from income tax, under this plan, while the large working family would be required to pay federal and state taxes of up to 46% on their next dollar of income while losing valuable deductions (e.g., for state income taxes and mortgage interest) and also losing five personal exemptions (which were supposed to be partial compensation for the added expense of supporting a larger family). The fairness of such a reallocation of tax burdens is, to put it mildly, not self-evident.”

Obama’s Tax Deceptions

Senator Obama famously claims, “I’ll give a tax break to 95% of workers and their families.”  The Obama team never explained that figure, because they made it up.  They always cite the friendly Tax Policy Center (TPC), when it suits their purposes, but not this time. That is because the Tax Policy Center concludes that under Obama’s plan, “about 81 percent of households would owe less tax while only [only?] about 10 percent would owe more.”  Compared with current tax policy, says the TPC “those in the top fifth of the income distribution would face and average tax increase of 3.4 percent of income, or $7,727.” The TPC adds that “married couples filing jointly would fare worst” because “married couples have much higher average incomes ($125,155 in 2009).”

Writing in The Wall Street Journal on Nov. 3, however, Obama said, “If you work, pay taxes, and make less than $200,000, you’ll get a tax cut.” That too is flatly false. Single workers who make more than $80,000 (or joint returns above $155,000) would not get a tax cut under Obama’s plan.

The centerpiece of the Obama redistribution scheme is a refundable “Making Work Pay Credit” (MWPC) of 6.2% up to a maximum of $8,100 of earnings, or about $500 per earner. This credit alone would cost $710 billion over ten years, according to the TPC, about half the cost of his entire $1.32 trillion package of assorted tax credits and exemptions.

The Making Work Pay credit results in a $500 check for those who pay no income tax, but it phases-out quickly once income exceeds $75,000. A two-earner family could get as much as $1000 from two tax credits, but that disappears as income exceeds $150,000. That is what Joe Biden meant when he said—correctly—that the plan is designed to help those earning less than $150,000.

University of Maine accounting professor Jeff Gramlich created a website which (like the Obama campaign) relies on Tax Policy Center estimates. It shows that a single worker earning $80,000 would get a $132 tax cut in 2010, but a single worker earning $85,000 would get nothing. A joint return with $155,000 of salary income would get a $270 tax cut, but a joint return with $160,000 would get nothing.

None of the other Obama tax cuts would be available to anyone earning anything close to $200,000. His child care credit phases out as incomes rise from $30,000 to $58,000; his exemption for seniors phases out as income rises from $50,000 to $60,000; his 50% savers credit ends at $75,000; his $4000 college tax credits (which pays $40 an hour for community service work) phases out as family income rises from $100,000 to $120,000. Robert Carroll of the Tax Foundation notes that, “The combination of the phase-out of the EITC, the “Making Work Pay” credit, and the child and dependent care credit pushes the effective marginal tax rate to as high as 51.7 percent. That is, the taxpayer who benefits from all these provisions at a lower income discovers that he gets to keep less than one half of every additional dollar of earnings in the roughly $30,000-to-$43,000 range.”

I recently demonstrated  that Obama’s repeated claim about McCain’s alleged $200 billion corporate tax cut is a total fraud. Amazingly, it turns out that Obama is also unable to tell the truth about his own tax plan.

A Breezy Slide From Vote Integrity to National ID

Writing at Slate, Richard Hasen makes the case for nationalizing voter registration.

Yglesias approves (as does Drum at Mother Jones) and he ultimately concludes - though “nobody’s supposed to say this” - that “implementing a National ID Card system would help solve a lot of problems at what looks to me to be an extremely low cost in civil liberties.”

Tell that to the dead in Rwanda. It never occurred to the Belgian government that the identity card system they put in place there would be used to administer genocide 60 years later, but it was.

Bruce Schneier calls it “bad civic hygiene” to build a technology infrastructure that can be used to facilitate a police state. That’s what a national ID system is.

It’s easy to arrive at facile conclusions about national IDs if you don’t think it all the way through. Joseph Eaton published a book in 1986 called Card Carrying Americans that did just that (and didn’t, as to the thinking through). My write-up of it in 2005 called it “full of ‘would’s and ‘could’s - an exercise in imagination with few tethers to real-world practicalities.”

Same with Hasen’s article:

The federal government could assign each person a unique voter-identification number, which would remain the same regardless of where the voter moves. The unique ID would prevent people from voting in two jurisdictions, such as snowbirds who might be tempted to vote in Florida and New York.

Except that it doesn’t work that way. Simply giving people a unique identifier gets you the Social Security number. To prevent people voting in multiple jurisdictions, you don’t give, you take - take a biometric identifier, database it, and use it at every polling place (leaving the door still wide open to absentee ballot fraud).

Voting issues can’t be solved consistent with our national values quite so glibly. If it were easy, it would already have been done. Thoughtful people should resist, not indulge, the temptation to stab at voting concerns with a national ID.

It doesn’t take much imagination to see a national voter registration system converted to lots of purposes that aren’t as congenial as regularizing voter registration. Citing the fate of Rwandans was overly dramatic, of course. It’s only the most recent example among apartheid South Africa, Stalinist Russia, and Nazi-occupied Europe, none of which can happen here … .

What we could expect in the near term would be more and more thorough data collection, tighter and tighter government monitoring of commerce, work, housing, health care, education, and communications - for illegal immigration control, at first. But new uses would accrue with each shift in public urgency.

The most concerning of what Hasen has to say is this:

There’s something in this for both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats talk about wanting to expand the franchise, and there’s no better way to do it than the way most mature democracies do it: by having the government register voters. For Republicans serious about ballot integrity, this should be a winner as well. No more ACORN registration drives, and no more concerns about Democratic secretaries of state not aggressively matching voters enough to motor vehicle databases.

It’s deeply concerning, the prospect of the major political parties uniting against the people to “mature” our democracy and give us a national ID.

Done Properly, Eliminating the Tax Preference for Job-Based Health Insurance Is a Huge Tax Cut

In a new oped at National Review Online, I ding the McCain campaign for not proposing a better tax credit – while making it sound like they had.  (My last NRO oped got me lots of hate mail.  Will this one??) 

It appears that McCain’s actual proposal, um, may lose some relevance by this Wednesday.  Thus, I’ll share an excerpt from my oped that has more enduring relevance.  The following explains how just about any revenue-neutral tax reform that levels the playing field between employer-sponsored health insurance and individual-market coverage would be a huge tax cut for everyone:

If employers no longer hold the keys to the tax break, workers would have the freedom to buy their own coverage and demand cash from their employers rather than health benefits. For workers with family coverage, that would shift an average of $9,000 of compensation from a form workers don’t control (health benefits) to a form they do control (wages). The labor market would force employers to fork that money over.

That shift would effectively cut taxes even for workers who see a nominal tax increase. Suppose a working mother’s health benefits cost $15,000 and her tax rate is 40 percent. Taxing her benefits costs her $6,000. After receiving McCain’s $5,000 credit, she would be among the very few who would pay more in taxes ($1,000).

If her employer gives her that $15,000 in wages instead of health benefits, however, then after taxes she would control $14,000 that she previously did not. Even if her employer continues providing health benefits, competing employers would offer her the $15,000 in cash, which likewise increases her control over her earnings, her health care, and her life.

Over 10 years, workers would control some $6.6 trillion dollars of their earnings that employers would otherwise control, which swamps the $3.6 trillion tax increase Obama claims is hidden in the McCain proposal.

Of course, that ain’t gonna happen under McCain’s proposal.  To learn why, read the whole thing.

Keep Virginia Red?

At John McCain’s rally Saturday in Springfield, Virginia, the audience chanted “Keep Virginia Red!” as McCain denounced Barack Obama for being a socialist. Say what?

It was very clever of the TV networks back in 2000 to insist on red for Republicans and blue for Democrats; it had often been the reverse in earlier elections. David Brinkley spoke of Ronald Reagan’s “sea of blue” in 1980, and Time wrote in 1984, “On NBC’s national map, a spreading sea of blue represented Reagan’s triumph, and little islands of red symbolized Mondale’s meager winnings; on ABC and CBS maps, the color symbolism was reversed.” NBC that year – like other networks in previous years – was in keeping with the worldwide use of political colors, where typically red represents communism, socialism, and social democracy and blue is associated with conservative parties. But when the dominant U.S. media all decided to paint the Democrats blue and Republicans red, they got rid of that pesky, lingering association of red with socialism.

And it’s worked so well that Virginia Republicans chant “Keep Virginia Red!”