Topic: Government and Politics

Obama’s Immigration Executive Order – Policy Implications

On Thursday, President Obama is expected to announce the specific provisions of his immigration executive order.  This order will have broad policy implications.  Below is a brief explanation of the changes in policy likely to be announced and their economic effects based on the leaked information.

Legalizations

The most contentious portions of the executive order will be the legalizations.  Many of the beneficiaries of all the legalization programs would be eligible for legal status through more than one program, creating significant overlap and making it difficult to predict exactly how many people would be eligible.  Below I will analyze each one and then sum up what the economic consequences are likely to be.

Federalism Should Trump the Drug War

Americans are angry with their politicians but nuanced in their political opinions.  Voters in Alaska simultaneously ousted their Democratic Senator and legalized the use of marijuana.  Floridians voted to allow the use of medicinal marijuana and reelected Republican Gov. Rick Scott.

In fact, Milton Friedman and William F. Buckley long argued against drug prohibition.  The electorate appears to be moving their way.

Which makes sense.  If you want to limit government and protect individual liberty, it’s impossible to ignore the ill consequences of arresting and imprisoning millions of people for using illicit substances. 

Drug use is bad.  Arresting people for using drugs is worse. 

But conservatives have another reason to abandon the drug war: federalism.

The Drug War has poisoned almost everything it touches.  The rule of law suffers.  Lawyers speak of the drug exception to the Fourth Amendment, since judges often sacrifice Fourth Amendment protections when drugs are involved. 

Constitutional interpretation is malformed.  In Gonzales v. Raich the Supreme Court held that Uncle Sam could regulate someone who grew marijuana for personal consumption under the interstate Commerce Clause.  The reasoning of conservative jurist Antonin Scalia was used by the legal Left to argue that ObamaCare was constitutional.

Federalism is another victim of the Drug War.  Many conservatives complain about the over-criminalization of life, with Washington encroaching on an area that’s traditionally a matter of state authority.

New Essays in Cato Online Forum on Growth

Here are the latest entries in the Cato Institute’s online forum on reviving growth (see here for some more background about the forum):

1. Tyler Cowen contends that foreign policy can have a major impact on long-term growth.

2. Heather Boushey argues that a national program of paid family leave will boost labor supply and therefore growth.

3. Eli Dourado proposes incentive pay for Congress.

4. Peter Van Doren cautions that there are no easy answers.

Government Shutdown Theater: Republicans Should Not Surrender to Obama’s Blackmail

Notwithstanding the landslide rejection of Obama and his policies in the mid-term election, I don’t think this will produce big changes in policy over the next two years.

Simply stated, supporters of limited government do not have the votes to override presidential vetoes, so there’s no plausible strategy for achieving meaningful tax reform or genuine entitlement reform.

But that doesn’t mean that there won’t be important fiscal policy battles. I’m especially worried about whether we can hold on to the modest fiscal restraint (and sequester enforcement) we achieved as part of the 2011 debt limit fight.

Today in Cato’s Online Forum on Growth

The Cato Institute’s special online forum on reviving growth (see here for more details) continues today with the following four essays:

1. Dean Baker argues for free trade in doctors and drugs – by eliminating immigration restrictions and patent protection.

2. Jim Manzi also calls for more high-skill immigration, as well as visionary investments in scientific research and technology projects.

3. Jonathan Rauch proposes a national apprenticeship system.

4. Philip K. Howard makes the case for radical simplification of law.

Reviving Growth: A Cato Online Forum

In conjunction with the upcoming conference on the future of U.S. economic growth, the Cato Institute has organized a special online forum to explore possible avenues for pro-growth policy reforms. We have reached out to leading economists and policy experts and challenged them to answer the following question:

If you could wave a magic wand and make one or two policy or institutional changes to brighten the U.S. economy’s long-term growth prospects, what would you change and why?

Their responses will all be made available here. We will post a few new essays each day in the run-up to the conference.

Assembling this impressive roster of contributors was a lot of fun. I strove for real diversity in outlooks – diversity not only in ideological orientation but in specific domains of expertise as well. I did this for a couple reasons. First, the U.S. economy’s growth slowdown is a serious and underappreciated problem and I want to spread awareness of the challenges ahead as broadly as possible. My hope is that a diverse set of writers will attract a broad set of readers. Furthermore, the problem of improving long-term U.S. economic performance is incredibly complex: there are no silver bullets, so meaningful progress will take the form of policy reforms on a whole host of different fronts. It makes sense then to look for promising approaches from as many different angles as possible.

No doubt the participants in this forum disagree about a great deal, and you will likely disagree with some of their proposals. The point of this forum, though, is to look past this and search for surprising areas of convergence and agreement. Back in the 1970s, during another protracted period of poor economic performance, the wholesale elimination of damaging price and entry controls came about as a result of an unusual left-right coalition: don’t forget that Ted Kennedy and Ralph Nader were major supporters of airline and trucking deregulation. It is my hope that similar coalitions can emerge to lift us out of our current predicament.

With that said, here are the first four essays:

1. Arnold Kling proposes alternatives to the regulatory status quo at the FCC and FDA, respectively: a spectrum arbitration board and prize-grants for medical research.

2. Robert Litan calls for more high-skill immigration and higher pay for teachers in exchange for an end to tenure.

3. Douglas Holtz-Eakin provides an overview of structural reforms needed to reduce government debt levels and restore growth.

4. Lee Drutman argues that tripling the budget for congressional staff can lead to improved policymaking.

U.S. Actions Alienate China and Foster Chinese-Russian Cooperation

Two countries that have the capacity to cause serious headaches for the United States are Russia and China.  Yet Washington is committing a cardinal sin in foreign policy: getting on bad terms simultaneously with those two major powers.  As I discuss in a recent article at China-U.S. Focus, that approach is especially unfortunate because Beijing has boundary disputes and an array of historical grievances against Russia.  In addition, China is now uneasy about the precedents being set by the Kremlin’s support of secessionists in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.  Those concerns and would normally cause Chinese officials to be wary about close cooperation with Russia.  But because Washington’s own relations with China have become frosty, the Obama administration may be forfeiting an opportunity to keep Moscow and Beijing from developing a common policy directed against the United States.

Two high-priority Chinese foreign policy objectives are now in conflict.  Beijing does not want to encourage the increasing popularity of secession in the international system.  The breakup of the Soviet Union, the violent fragmentation of Yugoslavia, the emergence of South Sudan, and the increasing likelihood of an independent Kurdistan arising from the wreckage of Iraq and Syria, all confirm a powerful trend.  Russia’s actions in Georgia in 2008 (supporting the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia) and now in Ukraine have given that trend a major boost, much to Beijing’s dismay.  Chinese leaders fret about separatist sentiments in Tibet and Xinjiang, as well as Taiwan’s continuing de facto independence.  From Beijing’s perspective, Moscow’s embrace of secessionist movements in neighboring states is most unhelpfu

However, the Chinese government is reluctant to join the West’s campaign of coercion against Moscow.  Not only is Russia an important partner of China’s in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the two countries have significant mutual economic and security interests throughout Central Asia and the Middle East.  The multi-billion dollar energy deal that the two governments recently signed underscores yet another aspect of the growing bilateral ties.