Topic: General

Countries at Risk, not Fake U.S. Coalition, Should Stop the Islamic State

President Barack Obama is fighting the Islamic State with a coalition without members.  What are allies for?

Washington collects allies like most people collect Facebook friends.  It doesn’t matter if the new “friends” enhance America’s security.  Washington wants more allies.

Yet America’s allies do little for the U.S.  Their view is that Washington’s job is to defend them.  Their job is to be defended by Washington. 

For decades Washington faced down a nuclear-armed power—the Soviet Union and then Russia—to protect the Europeans.  The Europeans did essentially nothing for the U.S. 

After 9/11 several European states contributed to America’s efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq.  Neither invading the latter nor attempting to build a democratic central government in the former made policy sense, but some Europeans sacrificed on behalf of a professed U.S. interest. 

However, Washington quickly repaid the favor, underwriting Britain’s and France’s foolish war in Libya.  Now the Europeans want Washington to save Ukraine and “reassure” countries to the east.  Yet the EU has a larger GDP and population than America. 

With the U.S. now calling for assistance against ISIL, the continent has turned more frigid.  No one seems interested in joining Washington’s air war, even Great Britain.

Washington’s Asian friends are even less helpful.  For decades Japan wouldn’t help U.S. forces, even if they were defending Japan.  That is finally changing, but there still is no good reason Washington to stare down the People’s Republic of China to secure Tokyo’s disputed claim to the Senkaku Islands. 

ObamaCare Exchanges Recklessly, Often Unlawfully, Throwing Taxpayer Money At Health Insurance Companies

Robert Laszewski, health policy wonk, blogger, and president of Health Policy and Strategy Associates, tells Inside Health Insurance Exchanges:

The Obama administration has no idea how many people are currently enrolled [in exchanges] but they keep cutting checks for hundreds of millions of dollars a month for insurance subsidies for people who may or may not have paid their premium, continued their insurance, or are even legal residents.

And if you think they’re doing those “enrollees” a favor, remember that if it turns out a recipient wasn’t eligible for the subsidy, he or she has to pay the money back.

Surprised? Don’t be. This is part of a deliberate, consistent strategy by the Obama administration to throw money at individual voters and key health care industry groups—lawfully or not—to buy support for this consistently unpopular law.

The D.C. Circuit Grants En Banc Review of Halbig

My reaction to the D.C. Circuit’s decision to grant en banc review of Halbig v. Burwell in a nutshell:

  1. It is unnecessary.
  2. It is unwise.
  3. It is unfortunate.
  4. It appears political, as would a decision to overrule Halbig.
  5. It will likely only delay Supreme Court review.
  6. En banc review does not necessarily mean the court will overturn Halbig, though it doesn’t look good.
  7. I predict that even if the court overturns Halbig, the Obama administration will lose ground.
  8. The D.C. Circuit will not have the last word.

If you want to go outside the nutshell, where I unpack all this with more words and facts and links, go here

New Front Opening in Core War

Reports are out this morning that Louisiana will be challenging in court federal coercion behind the Common Core standards. If so, it will open a new front in the war against the Core, a standardization effort that has been listing badly in public opinion, but nonetheless survives in the vast majority of states. That could very well change should the force of Race to the Top funding or, more importantly today, waivers from the No Child Left Behind Act, be eliminated by the courts, as Core supporters likely knew when they asked for federal pressure.

Does this suit have a chance of success? I’m not a lawyer – though I’ll be consulting a few! – so this is not the best-informed legal analysis. From what I do know, though, the chances of prevailing are middling, at best. The courts in the past have been pretty lenient in cases in which Washington gets states to do its bidding in exchange for funding when the feds don’t have authority in the Constitution to do something. And the Louisiana suit hinges largely on federal action that seems very intentionally to push the Core – standards “common to a majority of states” under RTTT, and only one other standards option to get a waiver – but that doesn’t state outright that the Core must be adopted. That way the feds can say they aren’t prescribing a specific “program of instruction,” which would clearly violate the letter of several education laws, while in reality very much requiring such a program.

Sadly, one major diversion likely to be employed by Core opponents to battle this suit is impugning Governor Bobby Jindal’s motives. Since Jindal first reversed course on the Core, supporters of the standards have said his stance is all about presidential aspirations and not about what’s best for kids. Those may well be his motives, I don’t know. But as with all aspects of the Core debate, we should focus on the merits of the arguments being employed, not the motives for offering them. (This goes for opponents who attack people like Bill Gates, too.) We should look at the merits of the lawsuit, which requires an honest assessment of both the Constitution and federal education statutes, just as we should look at the research on national standards, the content of the Core, and the reality of how so many states adopted standards that are now heavily disliked.

Do those things, and I think the Core loses hands down. Ignore them completely, and everyone loses.

IPAB Case Coons v. Geithner Dismissed, for Now

Jonathan Adler has a summary at the Volokh Conspiracy.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act’s Independent Payment Advisory Board has been called a “death panel,” though I’ve argued one could just as legitimately call it a “life panel.” Either way, it is the most absurdly unconstitutional part of the PPACA.

Adler’s otherwise excellent summary neglects to mention IPAB’s most unconstitutional feature. Diane Cohen and I describe it here:

The Act requires the Secretary of Health and Human Services to implement [IPAB’s] legislative proposals without regard for congressional or presidential approval. Congress may only stop IPAB from issuing self-executing legislative proposals if three-fifths of all sworn members of Congress pass a joint resolution to dissolve IPAB during a short window in 2017. Even then, IPAB’s enabling statute dictates the terms of its own repeal, and it continues to grant IPAB the power to legislate for six months after Congress repeals it. If Congress fails to repeal IPAB through this process, then Congress can never again alter or reject IPAB’s proposals…

Congress may amend or reject IPAB proposals, subject to stringent limitations, but only from 2015 through 2019. If Congress fails to repeal IPAB in 2017, then after 2019, IPAB may legislate without any congressional interference.

Like I said, absurdly unconstitutional. But that’s ObamaCare for you.

Has Freedom Finally Arrived? No, We’ll Have to Bring It!

The New York Times wonders if the libertarian moment has arrived. Unfortunately, there’ve been false starts before. 

Ronald Reagan’s election seemed the harbinger of a new freedom wave. His rhetoric was great, but actual accomplishments lagged far behind. 

So, too, with the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress.  Alas, the GOP in office behaved little different than many Democrats. 

Since then there’s been even less to celebrate—in America, at least. George W. Bush was an avid proponent of “compassionate,” big-government conservatism. Federa outlays rose faster than under his Democratic predecessor. Barack Obama has continued Uncle Sam’s bailout tradition, promoting corporate welfare, pushing through a massive “stimulus” bill for the bank accounts of federal contractors, and seizing control of what remained private in the health care system.

Over the last half century, members of both parties took a welfare state that was of modest size despite the excesses of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s New Deal and put it on a fiscally unsustainable basis as part of the misnamed “Great Society.” Economist Lawrence Kotlikoff figures government’s total unfunded liability at around $220 trillion. 

The national government has done no better with international issues. Trillions went for misnamed “foreign aid” that subsidized collectivism and autocracy. Trade liberalization faces determined resistance and often is blocked by countries that would gain great benefits from global commerce.

Even worse has been foreign policy. The joy people felt from the collapse of the Berlin Wall a quarter century ago has been forgotten. 

China and the U.S.: Similar Frustrations, Different Policies toward North Korea

SHENYANG, CHINA—China-Korean relations are in a state of flux.  The People’s Republic of China and South Korea have exchanged presidential visits.  Trade statistics suggest that the PRC did not ship any oil to the North during the first quarter of the year.  Chinese academics openly speak of Beijing’s irritation with its long-time ally.

The cold feelings are reciprocated.  Last year North Korea’s Kim Jong-un sent an envoy to the PRC to unsuccessfully request an invitation to visit.  In December Kim had his uncle, Jang Song-taek, the North’s most intimate interlocutor with China, executed.

These circumstances suggest the possibility of a significant foreign policy shift in Beijing away from the North and toward the Republic of Korea.  Washington hopes for greater Chinese willingness to apply economic pressure on Pyongyang.  However, the PRC remains unwilling to risk instability by undermining the Kim dynasty. 

I recently visited China and held scholarly meetings amid excursions to long-missed tourist sites (such as Mao’s Mausoleum!).  I also made it to Shenyang, where relations with the North are of great interest because the city is about a two hour drive from the Yalu River.

I met one senior scholar who indicated that there was no doubt that Beijing-Pyongyang relations had changed since Kim came to power.  The two nations “have a different relationship now and it is becoming colder than ever before.” 

However, Jang’s execution had been “weighed too heavily by Western researchers,” he indicated.  In fact, economic relations had continued.  Jang’s fate was a matter of internal North Korea politics, “the result of the natural struggle for power.” 

This doesn’t mean Beijing was happy about Jang’s fate.  However, Jang’s ouster “is not the reason for the DPRK’s and China’s bad relations.” 

Rather, the principal barrier is the North’s continued development of nuclear weapons.  Kim Jong-un wants to visit China.  But it is “unimaginable for Chinese officials to invite him when he’s doing nuclear tests.  Impossible.”

In return, the North is unhappy over Beijing’s refusal to accommodate Kim as well as the end of oil shipments.  “Also, the DPRK is quite angry over the quick development of Chinese relations with South Korea.” 

This has made Pyongyang “eager to make contact with the U.S.,” an effort which so far has gone nowhere.  This is why the Kim regime “took American citizens as hostages” and invited Dennis Rodman to visit, but these tactics “are not working.” 

The North eventually “shifted the focal point of its foreign relations to Japan.”  For the same reason, though “less importantly the DPRK made contact with Russia.”

The PRC is quite interested in U.S.-DPRK relations and Washington’s view of Japan’s move toward Pyongyang.  “One of the uniform convictions for both the U.S. and China is no nuclear weapons in the DPRK,” he emphasized. 

However, in Beijing’s view the solution is not more sanctions which “everyone has been putting on the DPRK,” but revival of the Six-Party Talks.  This is where agreement between the U.S. and China breaks down. 

The PRC wants more negotiations, preceded by an American willingness to reduce tensions and Pyongyang’s perceived need for a nuclear arsenal.  The U.S. wants the North to make concessions beforehand lest the latest round fail like the many previous efforts.

This clash reflects an even deeper disagreement over competing end states.  Both Washington and Beijing oppose a nuclear North Korea.  However, the U.S., in contrast to China, would welcome a DPRK collapse, even if messy, and favor reunification with the South.

As I write in China-U.S. Focus, It isn’t impossible for American and Chinese policymakers to work through their differences.  However, it will require understanding the other party’s perspective and offering meaningful concessions to make the deal a positive for both parties.