Tag: tax code

Revenge of the Laffer Curve

Steve Moore and Art Laffer have an excellent column in today’s Wall Street Journal. They explain that high-tax states drive repel entrepreneurs and investors, leading to a pronounced Laffer Curve effect. Productive people either leave the state or choose to earn and report less taxable income. And because growth is weaker than in low-tax states, there also is a negative impact on lower-income and middle-class people:

Here’s the problem for states that want to pry more money out of the wallets of rich people. It never works because people, investment capital and businesses are mobile: They can leave tax-unfriendly states and move to tax-friendly states. …Updating some research from Richard Vedder of Ohio University, we found that from 1998 to 2007, more than 1,100 people every day including Sundays and holidays moved from the nine highest income-tax states such as California, New Jersey, New York and Ohio and relocated mostly to the nine tax-haven states with no income tax, including Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and Texas. We also found that over these same years the no-income tax states created 89% more jobs and had 32% faster personal income growth than their high-tax counterparts. …Dozens of academic studies – old and new – have found clear and irrefutable statistical evidence that high state and local taxes repel jobs and businesses. …Examining IRS tax return data by state, E.J. McMahon, a fiscal expert at the Manhattan Institute, measured the impact of large income-tax rate increases on the rich ($200,000 income or more) in Connecticut, which raised its tax rate in 2003 to 5% from 4.5%; in New Jersey, which raised its rate in 2004 to 8.97% from 6.35%; and in New York, which raised its tax rate in 2003 to 7.7% from 6.85%. Over the period 2002-2005, in each of these states the “soak the rich” tax hike was followed by a significant reduction in the number of rich people paying taxes in these states relative to the national average.

Interestingly, the Baltimore Sun last week published an article noting that the soak-the-rich tax imposed last year is backfiring. There are fewer rich people, less taxable income, and lower tax revenue. To be sure, some of this is the result of a nationwide downturn, but the research cited by Moore and Laffer certainly suggest that the state revenue shortfall will continue even after than national economy recovers:

A year ago, Maryland became one of the first states in the nation to create a higher tax bracket for millionaires as part of a broader package of maneuvers intended to help balance the state’s finances and make the tax code more progressive. But as the state comptroller’s office sifts through this year’s returns, it is finding that the number of Marylanders with more than $1 million in taxable income who filed by the end of April has fallen by one-third, to about 2,000. Taxes collected from those returns as of last month have declined by roughly $100 million. …Karen Syrylo, a tax expert with the Maryland Chamber of Commerce, which lobbied against the millionaire bracket, said she has heard from colleagues who are attorneys and accountants that their clients moved out of state to avoid the new tax rate. She said that some Maryland jurisdictions boast some of the highest combined state and local income tax burdens in the country. “Maryland is such a small state, and it is so easy to move a few miles south to Virginia or a few miles north to Pennsylvania,” Syrylo said. “So there are millionaires who are no longer going to be filing Maryland tax returns.”

With President Obama proposing higher tax rates for the entire nation, perhaps this is a good time to remind people about the three-part video series on the Laffer Curve that I narrated. If you have not yet had a chance to watch them, the videos are embedded here for your viewing pleasure:

AEI Tax Forum

Chris Edwards, Photo by Peter Holden for AEI   Photo by Peter Holden Photography for AEI

I was a panelist at an American Enterprise Institute forum today discussing the proliferation of federal tax credits, particularly for low-income families.

AEI scholars Kevin Hassett, Larry Lindsey, and Aparna Mathur have a draft paper that looks at the idea of consolidating current individual credits into one supercredit. The idea would be to simplify the system and reduce the economic distortions created by these credits, which are valued at about $170 billion in 2009.

My observations included:

  • Obama’s Make Work Pay credit is valued at about $60 billion per year, much of which is “refundable.” (That means it is partly a spending increase not a tax cut). Coincidentally, Obama’s proposed tax hikes for higher-income individuals are also about $60 billion per year. So Obama is damaging the economy with “Make Work Not Pay” tax increases at the top in order to fund dubious work incentives at the bottom. It makes no economic sense.
  •  The AEI scholars provide interesting calculations about how we could make the $170 billion of redistribution in these credits simpler. That’s fine as far as it goes, but I’d like to end the redistribution altogether. Let’s provide a large basic exemption in the tax code for folks at the bottom, but we don’t need any complex credits. Instead, let’s repeal federal policies that damage the budgets of struggling families at the bottom, such as import barriers that raise the price of clothing and federal milk cartels that raise the price of  dairy products.
  • Here’s my compromise redistribution plan. Let’s chop the $170 billion in tax credits in half and use the extra funds to cut the corporate income tax rate. With a purely static calculation, that would allow cutting the corporate rate  from 35% to 25%. Assuming some behaviorial feedbacks, the $85 billion in credit savings would easily allow us to reduce the corporate rate to 20% or so.
  • What do corporate taxes have to do with the workers who currently get all these tax credits? As Hassett and Mathur explained in a 2006 paper, corporate tax cuts would increase investment, improve productivity, and that in turn would raise wages of average American workers. We don’t need President Obama’s fancy new Make Work Pay credits. Instead, we need to cut the corporate tax rate to make the economy boom and raise worker’s wages and incomes in the private marketplace.

Obama Taking on ‘Tax Havens’

Jeff Zeleny at the New York Times Caucus Blog reports, “President Obama will present a set of proposals on Monday aimed at changing international tax policy, calling for the elimination of benefits for companies and wealthy individuals that harbor their cash in offshore accounts.”

Cato scholars have long made arguments in defense of tax havens. In The Wall Street Journal, Senior Fellow Richard Rahn outlined the policy the federal government should be taking instead:

The correct policy for the United States to follow is to reduce its corporate tax rate to make it internationally competitive, and to move toward a tax system that does not punish savings and productive investment so severely. We know from the experiences of many countries that reducing tax rates and simplifying the tax code improve both tax compliance and economic growth. Tax protectionism should be rejected because it is at least as destructive to economic growth and job creation as are tariffs on goods and services.

Cato scholar Daniel J. Mitchell narrated a three part video series on the subject, presenting the economic and moral cases for tax havens, and a final video that punctured myths associated with the practice.  

Mitchell spoke on Capitol Hill last month about the role of tax havens and in Foreign Policy magazine, Mitchell explained why tax havens are a blessing.

New at Cato, Tax Day Edition

tax-dayHere are a couple of dishes Cato Institute scholars cooked up for Tax Day:

  • Writing for National Review Online, Chris Edwards warns against the dangers of rapidly increasing government spending:

    When filling out your tax forms, you might want to think for a second about where all that money is going. After federal spending roughly doubled in the Bush years, it is growing by leaps and bounds under President Obama. What’s more, the federal government is increasing the scope of its activities — it is intervening in many areas that used to be left to state and local governments, businesses, charities, and individuals.

    There are now a staggering 1,804 subsidy programs in the federal budget. Hundreds of programs were added this decade, and the recent stimulus bill added even more. The result is that we are in the midst of the largest federal gold rush at taxpayer expense since the 1960s.

  • At Townhall, Dan Mitchell rails against the current tax code:

    Beginning as a simple two-page form in 1913, the internal revenue code has morphed into a complex nightmare that simultaneously hinders compliance by honest people and rewards cheating by Washington insiders and other dishonest people.

    But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The tax code also penalizes economic growth, distorts taxpayer behavior, undermines American competitiveness, invites corruption and promotes inefficiency.

  • At CNSNews.com, Edwards argues that policymakers should give Americans the low and simple tax code that they deserve.
  • Also, don’t miss the new Cato video that reveals how troubling the American tax system really is.

Our Troubling Tax System

The U.S. tax code gets more complex every year. It violates civil liberties and, left unchanged, will leave the United States at a powerful competitive disadvantage in years to come, say Cato scholars in this new Cato video.

According to tax expert Chris Edwards, the tax system is growing at startling levels — there are now about 70,000 pages of tax regulations and $300 billion in compliance costs — and it’s only going to get worse.