Tag: swing voters

‘The Libertarian Vote’ — Now in an Ebook

What a long way we’ve come since David Kirby and I first started writing about the libertarian vote in 2006. Back then liberal blogger Matt Yglesias neatly summarized the conventional political wisdom: the libertarian vote is “zero percent,” “a rounding error in the scheme of things.” Why would anyone care what libertarians think? And National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru suggested that Republicans would actually lose votes by appealing to libertarians.

In our new ebook, The Libertarian Vote: Swing Voters, Tea Parties, and the Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal Center, Kirby, Emily Ekins, and I bring together our studies and other writings on libertarian voters, along with some spiffy new graphics. (That’s the Amazon link; for multiple formats, go here.)

Today, libertarians are an increasingly influential and accepted part of the political mix. Ron Paul went deep into the 2012 Republican presidential primary, drawing crowds of thousands of young people and 2.1 million votes; and his son Sen. Rand Paul is being joined by other libertarian-leaning members of both houses of Congress. Tea partiers have strong libertarian roots, as Kirby and Emily Ekins discuss in two articles in this ebook. The “Audit the Fed” bill passed the U.S. House 327 to 98; all but one Republican and 89 Democrats voted yes. In academia, social scientist Jonathan Haidt teamed up with scholars at UCLA, USC, and NYU to conduct the largest study ever on “libertarian psychology.” Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch write about a “libertarian moment” in their book Declaration of Independents.

The latest Governance Survey from Gallup, earlier visions of which are cited throughout the book, finds 25 percent of respondents gave libertarian responses to two questions (“government is trying to do too many things” and “government should promote traditional values”), up from 17 percent in 2004, 21 percent in 2006, and 23 percent in 2008 and 2010. Analysts from GOPAC to Nate Silver at the New York Times have tried to measure the libertarian – or “fiscally conservative, socially liberal” – constituency.

Read all about it in The Libertarian Vote.

Those who doubt the relevance of the libertarian vote might consult the last commentary in the book, “The Real Swing Voters,” which finds evidence in an August 2012 ABC-Washington Post poll that the truly independent voters still up for grabs lean strongly libertarian.

The Real Swing Voters

A new poll from the Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation looks at independent voters, the voters who presumably will decide this year’s election. The poll finds that about a third of all voters call themselves independents. But “nearly two-thirds of Americans who describe themselves as independents act very much like partisan Republicans or partisan Democrats.” Another quarter are “detached,” with a low interest in politics and unlikely to vote.

Which leaves 13 percent of the independents, or about five percent of the total electorate, to be designated by the Post’s Jon Cohen and Dan Balz as “Deliberators,” people genuinely open to candidates of both parties. And the following figure reveals some pretty interesting things about them. They’re virtually all registered to vote, they insist that they really do vote for candidates of both parties, and only about 60 percent currently plan to vote for either Obama or Romney. They’re highly dissatisfied with today’s political system.  And look at the next  two lines under “Issues”: 64 percent support “smaller government with fewer services,” and 63 percent favor gay marriage. The former position, of course, puts them closer to Republicans, and the latter closer to Democrats. These are the true swing voters, and they might well be described as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

 

 

Note: This chart was extracted by Carlos Goes from a larger one published on page 16 of the August 21 Washington Post, but apparently not published online.

For more on fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters, check here and here. And see Cato’s original study “The Libertarian Vote” from 2006.