Tag: Pollster.com

Aside From That, Mrs. Lincoln, How’s ObamaCare Implementation Going?

The Washington Post has published a remarkable exposé on the Obama administration’s foundering efforts to implement ObamaCare.

The article paints a picture of a White House that did not know what it was getting into, either in terms of public opposition or the technical challenges of implementation. It likens the task of getting young adults to buy ObamaCare’s health plans to getting young adults to vote, despite a glaring difference between those challenges. (Hint: one of them requires young adults to shell out hundreds of dollars per month.) But this exposé is most remarkable for not exposing two lawsuits that by far pose the greatest challenge to ObamaCare’s survival.

One indication that implementation is not going well is what the Post quotes ObamaCare’s supporters as saying:

“In 2011, there was this ‘we’re going to save the world’ mentality. In 2013, it focuses more on how do we deliver on the requirements of the law.”

“It’s pretty much a black box.”

“They tell us, ‘It’s freakishly on schedule.’ They use those exact words. But only the people who work in this can tell you if it’s actually running on time.”

“Advocates on the ground are really struggling with that group. They want to have a positive message but don’t know what to say.”

“We’re in an environment [now] where 40 percent are against it, 35 percent are for it and neither side knows what’s actually in it.”

“How hard does the insurance department or Medicaid department in a red state [that opposes the law] make it to implement this?”

“Everybody is having sleepless nights given the magnitude of the effort and the short amount of time.”

“It’s like building a bridge from both ends and hoping, in the end, they connect.”

“I read [the delay of the employer-mandate] as an admission that not all of the components of the [data] hub are working.”

“Some of the guidance from the federal government is still coming. That means we can’t get to our wishlist.”

As bad as these evaluations are, things are actually quite a bit worse.

For one thing, the HuffingtonPost/Pollster.com polling aggregator currently shows that 52.5 percent of Americans are against ObamaCare, compared to 40.5 percent are for it. That’s a 12-point gap, not a five-point gap. It’s also the largest gap that aggregator has ever measured.

For another, the Washington Post acknowledges that if young adults don’t sign up for ObamaCare’s over-priced insurance “the law will fail,” and acknowledges the difficulty of getting young adults to over-pay for insurance. But it still downplays that challenge:

When…asked in a recent survey whether a $210 premium was affordable, only 29 percent of likely marketplace enrollees said yes. [Marketers then told] participants that, with their tax credits, they would save “$1,908 a year compared to what you would pay on your own.”

All of a sudden, 48 percent of the participants thought that insurance was affordable. But 48 percent is still less than half.

That number will turn out to be even lower when young adults realize they’re still shelling out that $210 they already said they cannot afford.

But the Post neglects to mention the greatest threat to the law’s survival: those tax credits may not even be there in two-thirds of the country.

The attorney general of Oklahoma, and a group of small employers and individuals from various states, have each filed lawsuits challenging the Obama administration’s plans to issue those tax credits in the 34 states that have opted not to establish one of ObamaCare’s health insurance “exchanges” themselves. The statute quite clearly authorizes those credits (and related subsidies) only “through an Exchange established by the State.” Nowhere, and in no way, does federal law allow the administration to issue entitlements through the 34 state-based Exchanges established and operated by the federal government. Yet the White House is trying to spend an estimated $700 billion over 10 years in those states without congressional authorization.

Both the non-partisan Congressional Research Service and Harvard Law Review have acknowledged these lawsuits are credible. Plaintiffs in one of the suits have asked the court to block that illegal spending before it begins in 2014. Supporters of the law admit that if that happens, ObamaCare doesn’t just fail, it collapses.

So the question this supposed exposé really answers is: aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how’s ObamaCare implementation going?

What on Earth Is Ezra Klein Talking about?

The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein writes:

It’s put-up-or-shut-up time for Republicans. They managed to make it through the health-care debate without offering serious solutions of their own, and - perhaps more impressive - through the election by promising to tell us their solutions after they’d won. But the jig is up. They need a health-care plan - and quickly.

The GOP knew this day would come.

Say what?  Exactly what political factors are forcing the GOP to put up or shut up?  Their base is happy; it wants an all-out assault on ObamaCare, and congressional Republicans are giving it to them.  Republicans are even winning the ObamaCare debate among the broader public:

So why should Republicans all of a sudden stop attacking ObamaCare and start talking about their own refor–ohhhh…I see.  Klein is trying to talk the dog off the meat wagon.  Good luck with that.

ObamaCare: Never Supported by a Majority, Now 10 Points behind with Likely Voters

With the addition of a poll by George Washington University and Politico – completed the day before ObamaCare started sending health insurance premiums higher, making coverage less accessible for children, and destroying health insurance innovations – Pollster.com shows that among likely voters, ObamaCare now suffers a 10-point popularity gap:

(As I’ve noted before, Pollster.com’s local-regression trend estimate will head off in a direction different from public opinion if the latest poll is a fluke.  But these trajectories are consistent with Pollster.com’s trend estimates for polls surveying registered voters and all adults, which incorporate many more data points.)

Also worth noting: ObamaCare has never enjoyed the support of a majority of likely voters or even all adults.  For every poll that put ObamaCare above 50 percent – there have been only a few, and the highest showed only 53-percent support – many more polls clocked support at well below 50 percent.  Thus Pollster.com’s trend estimate shows public support for ObamaCare peaked among all adults at 47 percent just after Obama’s inauguration, and has fallen to just below 40 percent today.  Among likely voters (above), the high water mark was 45 percent in June, 2009, and now stands at just over 42 percent.

If Pollster.com does a fair job of smoothing out the quirkiness of various polls, that means ObamaCare has never enjoyed the support of a majority of Americans.

Avoiding the ‘U’ Word

I grow increasingly amused at how some people carefully avoid saying that ObamaCare is unpopular.

When Pollster.com aggregates all the various polls on ObamaCare’s popularity, it reveals that a plurality or majority of the public has consistently opposed the law since before the angry town-hall meetings of August 2009:

It’s no surprise when HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius avoids the U-word by saying stuff like, “We have a lot of reeducation to do.”  (To be clear, she’s talking about reeducating you, not herself.)

But it’s odd when a Washington Post news item describes the public as “profoundly ambivalent” toward the law. (According to Merriam-Webster, ambivalence means holding “simultaneous and contradictory attitudes or feelings,” “continual fluctuation,” or “uncertainty as to which approach to follow.”)  Or when Kaiser Family Foundation president and CEO Drew Altman tells NPR: “The public is split, has been split, and continues to be split.”

I guess those descriptions are true (though “continual fluctuation” and “uncertainty” seem like a stretch).  But they’re not very informative.  “Ambivalent” doesn’t tell you if one side dominates.  “Split” could accurately describe anything shy of unanimity.  “Opposed” or “unpopular” or “consensus” would convey so much more information. Why convey less?

ObamaCare Is Unpopular: a Response to Maggie Mahar

The Century Foundation’s Maggie Mahar is one of the Left’s more knowledgeable and insightful health policy wonks.  Today, she blogs about my colleague Michael Tanner’s claim – made in his recent white paper, “Bad Medicine: A Guide to the Real Costs and Consequences of the New Health Care Law” – that ObamaCare, which became law in March, “remains deeply unpopular.  Recent polls show substantial majorities support repealing it.”  To support that claim, Tanner cites a May poll showing support for repeal at 63 percent.

Mahar says Tanner is “cherry picking”:

Bad Medicine was released July 12. Why didn’t Tanner include June numbers? Instead, he  hand-picked the one poll, over a seventeen week span, that shows support for repeal running as high as 63 percent…Indeed, the May 22 poll turned out to be a “bounce”—merely a blip on the screen. Over the next five weeks, the number of respondents who favored repeal fell, while opposition to killing the bill rose.

I’m not sure why Tanner didn’t include more recent numbers, but it may have been because it often takes 6 weeks for a paper to emerge from Cato’s publishing process.

More important, while Mahar is correct that the 63-percent figure is so far the high water mark for repeal, it was hardly “merely a blip.”  She herself reports that support for repeal was 60 percent in the very next Rasmussen poll.  Nor is it quite accurate to say that support for repeal fell over the next five weeks.  Support for repeal reached 60 percent again on July 1, and at no point does Rasmussen show support for repeal falling below 52 percent.  In fact, Rasmussen today reports that support for repeal climbed three points to 56 percent in its July 16-17 poll, while opposition to repeal fell by four points to 38 percent.  It would be more accurate to say that Rasmussen finds opposition to repeal hovering between 32-42 percent, and support for repeal hovering between 52-63 percent, with no clear trend on either side.  But Rasmussen does find far greater intensity on the pro-repeal side: in the July 16-17 poll, 47 percent “strongly favor” repeal, while only 25 percent are “strongly opposed.”

Mahar then selects her own polls to support the Left’s theme that the more Americans learn about ObamaCare, the more they like it.  But when we take all available polls into account (as I did earlier today using Pollster.com), we see that opposition to ObamaCare still leads support and the trendline is not moving in the direction Mahar says it is.  When we look only at polls of likely & registered voters, opposition to ObamaCare commands a slight majority and leads support by a consistent 9-point margin.

Tanner may have picked the most dramatic numbers, but he didn’t need to.  ObamaCare remains deeply unpopular – in spite of Mahar and major media outlets misleading the public by claiming that the law makes preventive care (and other services) available to patients “free of charge.”

ObamaCare Still Unpopular, Especially among Voters

As of mid-July, it appears the American public still opposes ObamaCare, with the opposition strongest among those most likely to vote.

Judging by the latest data at the poll-aggregating site Pollster.com, a solid plurality of adults continues to oppose ObamaCare (46.8 vs. 40.1 percent):

The trendlines don’t look so good for supporters of the law.  (The public isn’t so hot about President Obama’s handling of health care, either.) Yet the above graph includes (polls that include) adults who are neither registered nor likely to vote.

If you want to know how public opinion about ObamaCare will influence the November elections, you’ll want to look at polls of likely voters. Those suggest a majority opposes the law (51.3 vs 42.9 percent):

It’s hard to know what to make of the trendlines, since the last poll of likely voters was in April and Pollster.com’s trend estimates can be skewed if the most recent poll is aberrant.

Polls of registered voters (which include both likely and unlikely registered voters) again show that a majority opposes ObamaCare (50.7 vs. 42.7 percent). Compared to the graph of likely-voter-only polls, the “oppose” trendline appears flatter, while the “support” line appears to have the same slope:

Yet the “support” trend-estimate among registered voters started from a lower base, so that the July point estimate (42.7 percent) is roughly the same as that for likely voters in April (42.9 percent).  And the most recent spread between opponents and supporters is roughly the same in the two graphs (8.4 vs. 8.0 percentage points).

Combining polls of likely voters and registered voters produces a higher ratio of likely-to-unlikely voters than looking at just registered voters.  It also shows that a majority oppose ObamaCare (50.7 vs. 41.2 percent), with a persistent gap of about 9 percentage points:

(NB: The figures I cite in this post are the figures that appeared on these graphs on July 17.  Since these graphs are embedded from Pollster.com, the figures in the graphs will change as as Pollster.com adds new polling data to their graphs.)