Tag: polls

Poll: Americans Would Rather Pay Lower Prices than Purchase Items Made in the U.S.

“We don’t win anymore!” Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump tells us. One of the main reasons, according to Trump, is due to free trade agreements. At a rally in North Carolina he declared: “All this free trade, you know what, it is free trade for them, not for us. We’re losing our shirts.” Trump has proposed imposing various taxes on foreign imports to the US because he believes this will help facilitate bringing back jobs to the US (my colleague Daniel Ikenson has written about this here and here).

Trump’s talk of unfair trade and his proposals to punish importers has resonated with many Americans. In fact, a recent CBS/New York Times survey finds that 61% of Americans agree that “trade restrictions are necessary to protect domestic industries” whereas 29% say free trade should be allowed even if domestic industries are hurt by competition abroad. 

Yet, Americans may not be willing to foot the bill of goods’ higher prices that will result from Trump’s proposed trade restrictions. A recent AP/GfK poll finds that 67% of Americans would rather buy cheaper products made in another country rather than pay more for the same product made in the United States. Thirty percent (30%) say they’d rather pay more to buy American made products. That being said, 71% report that they’d like to buy American made items, but that they are often too costly or difficult to find. Furthermore, only 9% say they hold firm to only buying American made goods even if they cost more.

These poll results give some insight into Americans’ revealed preferences, or their actual consumer behavior. While in theory Americans like the idea of buying items made closer to home by their fellow citizens, ultimately their pocketbook may prove more relevant to their behavior.

When it comes to free trade agreements impact on American jobs and wages, Americans are divided but tend not to be concerned. Fifty-four percent (54%) do not believe that free trade agreements decrease wages for American workers while 43% think these agreements do harm wages. Similarly 51% do not think that free trade agreements cost American jobs, while 46% think they do.

Overall, Americans are quite divided over the general benefits of free trade with a third who believe free trade agreements are good for the economy, 37% who say they don’t make a difference, and about a quarter who think these agreements harm the economy.

Presidential Candidates Who Led the Polls in January Entering the 2008 and 2012 Primary Election Cycles Didn’t Win

RealClearPolitics provides a useful tool to compare the Republican and Democratic nomination races today to similar points during the 2012 and 2008 primary cycles. Those nominating contests show that the candidates ahead at this point in the election cycle did not take home the nomination. This suggests that despite Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton’s persistent leads throughout the summer and fall of 2015, their primary victories remain uncertain.

Averaging across recent December polls, Donald Trump holds the lead among national Republican voters (not necessarily likely primary voters), at 35 percent. Trump holds a 15-point lead over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in second place at 19.5 percent and an over 20-point lead over Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) in third place with 11.5 percent. Trump’s support took-off in July and, for the most part, he’s remained ahead and increased momentum. 

Does Trump’s lead entering into 2016 portend his eventual win? Not necessarily.

The People Still Want Smaller Government

Most of the headlines about the large new Pew Research Center survey (6,000 interviews) have focused on the continuing decline in Americans’ trust in government, as depicted in the chart below.

Trust in government Pew

But the survey also asks one of my favorite questions:

If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?

As shown in the chart below, the number preferring smaller government rose to its highest point during the 1990s, then reached a low point as President Obama was elected in 2008, and has been rising since then. In the latest survey 53 percent of Americans say they prefer a smaller government, while only 38 percent would rather have a bigger government with more services.

But as I’ve written before, I’ve always thought the “smaller government” question is incomplete. It offers respondents a benefit of bigger government–”more services”–but it doesn’t mention that the cost of “bigger government providing more services” is higher taxes. The question ought to give both the cost and the benefit for each option. The Rasmussen poll does often ask the question that way. In one poll about a decade ago, Rasmussen found that 64 percent of voters said that they prefer smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes, while only 22 percent would rather see a more active government with more services and higher taxes. A similar poll around the same time, without the information on taxes, found a margin of 59 to 26 percent. So it’s reasonable to conclude that if you remind respondents that “more services” means higher taxes, the margin by which people prefer smaller government rises by about 9 points. So maybe the margin in this poll would have been something like 58 to 34 if both sides of the question had been presented.

For now, when voters are given only the benefits and not the costs of bigger government, Pew and other pollsters find these results:

Views of smaller government

Social Liberalism in the U.S. on the Rise, Fiscal Conservatism Remains Strong

Gallup’s latest report of American ideology shows the public is becoming increasingly socially liberal but not more economically liberal. Putting these trends together, you have an increasing number of Americans who are both socially liberal and fiscally conservative. This is probably why pundits are talking about a libertarian impulse trending in the United States. America is not becoming more liberal across the board, we are becoming more libertarian on social issues. In sum, the country is more libertarian today in 2015 than it was 10 years ago.

Social Liberalism on the Rise

Since the late 1990s Gallup has tracked the share of Americans who say their views on social issues are “liberal” or “very liberal.” In 1999 Americans were nearly twice as likely to say they were socially conservative as socially liberal (39 to 21 percent). However, throughout the 2000s the share of Americans who viewed themselves as liberal on social issues has steadily increased. In Gallup’s latest poll, Americans are equally likely to say they are socially liberal as socially conservative (31 percent each).

The rise in social liberalism is largely due to Democrats’ embracing the term rather than Republicans becoming more liberal. In 2015 fully 53 percent of Democrats say they are social liberals, up from only 38 percent 10 years ago. Among Republicans there has been no significant change in the share who say they are social liberals. Compared to 10 years ago, almost the same share of Republicans say they are social conservatives. However, there was a surge in social conservatism on the right between 2007 and 2012, reaching 67 percent in 2009. From that, there has been a marked decline to 53 percent. Only 11 percent of Republicans say they are social liberals, while 8 percent used the label 10 years ago.

Fiscal Conservatism Maintains Strong Advantage

Nevertheless, despite the 2008 Financial Crisis and Great Recession, talk of who built what and who’s paying their fair share, Americans continue to see themselves as fiscal conservatives by a wide margin. Gallup found that 39 percent of Americans self identify as fiscal conservatives compared to 19 percent who say they are fiscal liberals—a 20-point advantage.

NSA Snooping: a Majority of Americans Believe What?

Yesterday, the Washington Post and the Pew Research Center released a joint poll that purportedly showed that “a large majority of Americans” believe the federal government should focus on “investigating possible terrorist threats even if personal privacy is compromised.”

But a careful look at the poll shows citizens are far less sanguine about surrendering their privacy rights, as the facts continue to be revealed.

Pollsters faced a difficult challenge—to accurately capture public opinion during a complex and evolving story. Recall, on Wednesday of last week, the story was about the NSA tracking Verizon phone records. So the pollsters drew up a perfectly reasonable and balanced question:

As you may know, it has been reported that the National Security Agency has been getting secret court orders to track telephone call records of MILLIONS of Americans in an effort to investigate terrorism. Would you consider this access to telephone call records an acceptable or unacceptable way for the federal government to investigate terrorism?

Fifty-six percent found this “acceptable.” Thus, the “majority of Americans” lead in the Washington Post.

However, on Thursday, the Washington Post revealed explosive details about the massive data-collection program PRISM—and the public was alerted that the NSA was not just collecting phone records, but email, Facebook, and other online records. So the pollsters quickly drew up a new question, asked starting Friday, from June 7-9:

Do you think the U.S. government should be able to monitor everyone’s email and other online activities if officials say this might prevent future terrorist attacks?

Fifty-two percent—a majority—said “no.” So Americans feel differently about the story based on the facts on Wednesday, when the story was about tracking “telephone calls,” and facts on Thursday, when the story was about monitoring all “email and other online activity.”

The Washington Post could have fairly gone with a story that a majority of Americans do not agree that the federal government should monitor everyone’s email and online communication, even if it might prevent future terrorist attacks.

Unfortunately, that’s not the story that the Washington Post went with. Subsequent media coverage of the Post-Pew poll has neglected this nuance and cemented this misinterpretation of what “majority of Americans” believe.

A more reasonable interpretation of the Post-Pew poll is that citizens’ views seem to be changing as more details are revealed about the massive extent of the NSA snooping program. Indeed, most citizens have not been following this story as closely with only 48 percent report following thing “very closely” or “fairly closely.”

I’ll be watching eagerly to see what the next polls find out about that ever elusive “majority of Americans.”

Public Prefers Education Tax Credits to Charters, Vouchers

In a recent public opinion study conducted by Harvard University researchers, education tax credits were found to attract more public support (72%) than either charter schools (62%) or vouchers (50%).

The authors seem to find this puzzling, in part due to their belief that “most economists think the difference between vouchers and tax credits more a matter of style than substance.” I have no idea whether this is an accurate assessment of economists’ opinions, but it is certainly a mistaken view, for several reasons.

First, based on a set of regression studies I reported last year in the Journal of School Choice, vouchers, but not tax credits, impose a large and highly significant extra burden of regulation on participating private schools (the link is to an essentially identical pre-publication version). In that study, I offer a suggested explanation for why this pattern may exist.

Second, tax credit programs confer freedom of choice and conscience not just on families but also on taxpayer/donors. As I argued in U.S. Supreme Court amicus briefs in ACSTO v. Winn, and a subsequent op-ed on the Winn verdict, this avoids the compulsion that has plagued state-funded school systems since their inception and has precipitated our endless “school wars.” Vouchers, by compelling all taxpayers to support every type of schooling, perpetuate that compulsion and so perpetuate the conflicts that flow from it.

To my knowledge, in the whole history of the world there hasn’t been a system of government funding for the education of children that has long avoided extensive regulatory constraints. Those constraints defeat the purpose of “school choice” programs, by homogenizing the schools from which parents are permitted to “choose.” There is evidence that tax credits, which make use of only private funds, avoid that fate. Perhaps many economists have not yet become aware of this distinction, but it is one they should take a keen interest in.

Red Team, Blue Team, and Gas Prices

The Washington Post puts public opinion on gas prices in stark red and blue:

Pretty clear Red Team/Blue Team answers. Republicans in 2006 accepted that there wasn’t much the president could do to reduce gas prices, but most of them think Obama could. Democrats show an even sharper shift; they overwhelmingly said that Bush could bring prices down, but few expect Obama to do so. I hope the fact that both Independents and Americans as a whole are 12-13 points less likely to think that presidents set gas prices is a sign of improvement in general economic understanding.

Back around 2003 or 2004 a colleague was escorted through the hallways of CNN by a junior staffer or intern, who asked him, “Do you think Bush is raising gas prices now so he can lower them before the election?” With perceptions like that among budding journalists, is there any hope for better public understanding of economics?

For examples of informed and nonpartisan analysis of gas prices, check out