Tag: Obamacare

One Signature Closer to a Vote on Obamacare Repeal

This morning, in a column for National Review Online, I criticized a number of Democrats and Republicans who voted against Obamacare but had not signed a discharge petition that would force a floor vote on repealing the new health care law. One of the Republicans I singled out was Rep. Castle of Delaware, who is now seeking the GOP nomination for US Senate. This afternoon, Rep. Castle’s staff informed me that he intends to sign that petition as soon as he returns to Washington after the recess. That leaves five Republicans who have not signed.  For the record, they are: Mark Kirk of Illinois, Joseph Cao and Charles Boustany of Louisiana, David Reichert of Washington, and Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia.

Credit Where It’s Due, National Journal Edition

A week ago today, I questioned both the premises and purpose of an upcoming National Journal forum on ObamaCare and job creation.  The forum’s promotional materials touted the new health care jobs that the law will create as a Good Thing, even though we already have too many health care jobs.  All in all, it looked to be a very dignified pro-Obama(Care) rally, funded by one of ObamaCare’s biggest beneficiaries, the drugmaker Eli Lilly.  The Washington Examiner’s Tim Carney picked up on the story.  Then Instapundit added his own pithy interpretation: “Hey, the Atlantic media empire needs money. Eli Lilly has it. Plus, it boosts Obama. Win-win!”  (Actually, I believe that would be win-win-win.)

To its credit, National Journal has since added balance to the forum and its panel.  I received a promotional email today that reframes the event by asking, “are the right jobs being created?” (Emphasis mine.)  They’ve also added AEI’s Tom Miller to the panel, who I’m guessing will cast a skeptical eye on the value added by these new health care jobs. Now the event looks to be a dignified and balanced discussion of ObamaCare.

National Journal still describes ObamaCare as “reform,” which I submit compromises objectivity.  But this is progress.  Kudos to them.

The Likelihood of Repealing ObamaCare

The political science blog Rule 22 has a post discussing the likelihood of repealing at least some part of ObamaCare.  Author Jordan Ragusa finds:

  • If “the Republicans regain only the House in the upcoming election…the estimated likelihood of at [least] some repeal during the 112th Congress is 52 percent.”
  • If “Republicans regain both chambers in the upcoming midterm…the estimated likelihood of at [least] some repeal is 59 percent.”
  • If “Republicans regain unified control of government in 2012…the estimated likelihood of some repeal in the 113th Congress is 69 percent.”

Ragusa is predicting only that the odds are better than 50-50 that Congress will repeal some part of the law, such as the expanded 1099 reporting, which House Democrats have already moved to eliminate because small businesses find it so onerous.  He is not laying odds on whether Congress will repeal the entire law or its most important and unpopular provisions (i.e., ObamaCare’s individual mandate).

His post does shed light on the likelihood of repealing the individual mandate, however.  As the below graph shows, the probability of repealing any provision of major legislation rises in each of the next five Congresses (i.e., over the subsequent 10 years).  After that point, the probability of repeal begins to fall.

Note that this graph shows the instantaneous probability of repeal.  The cumulative probability is the area under the curve, and increases monotonically over time.  Thus the probability that Congress will repeal some part of ObamaCare by 2020 is more than 13 percent.

Ragusa therefore concludes:

the newly enacted law will be most “at risk” not in the next Congress, but a decade from now.  So sit tight.

Also noteworthy is that Ragusa presents only the probability of legislative repeal.  The prospect that the courts may invalidate all or part of the law increases the probability that some day, ObamaCare will no longer be on the books.

Is National Journal Giving ObamaCare a Big, Wet Smooch?

Come September, National Journal will host a policy summit titled “Prescription For Growth,” funded by Eli Lilly, that will probe “the potential impact of recently passed health care reform as an economic engine” and ask whether “health care reform [will] serve as a jobs creator and accelerate growth in health-related industries?”

Oy, where to begin?

I suppose I could start with how a news organization that bills itself as “the leading source of nonpartisan reporting” could lend ObamaCare a positive gloss by calling it “reform” – a term that even NPR declines to ascribe to actual legislation (for that reason).

Next, there’s this inane question of whether ObamaCare will spur job growth in the health care sector.  With two new health care entitlements and maybe a trillion dollars of new health spending…gosh, d’ya think?

But then there’s the presumption that creating new health care jobs is a good thing.  You’d think it would be.  After all, unemployment is near 10 percent.  But one of our biggest health care problems is that there are too many health care jobs.  The Dartmouth Institute’s Elliot Fisher has quipped, “In theory, we could send a third of the U.S. health care workforce to Africa and improve the health of both continents.”  ObamaCare will just make this country’s health care sector even more bloated and inefficient.

Wrap your head around all that this summit aims to accomplish.  It could give a boost to an unpopular and embattled law by taking one of the law’s biggest liabilities and dressing it up as an asset.  It could create a meme that helps turn around President Obama’s low approval rating on the economy – never mind that ObamaCare is stifling the right kind of job creation.

Of course, I may have this summit all wrong.  It may give all these issues a fair hearing.

Did I mention the summit’s sponsor is one of the biggest special-interest beneficiaries of ObamaCare?  (Tim Carney, call your office.)

Mr. President, Tear Down That Andy Griffith Ad

The Obama administration spent your tax dollars on a pro-ObamaCare ad, featuring Andy Griffith, that FactCheck.org found uses “weasel words” to “mislead” seniors about how that law would affect them.  (As I blogged previously, FactCheck.org understated the case.) Nonetheless, over at Medicare.gov, the administration is still running that dishonest ad.

They should take the ad down.

Making a Joke of Human Rights

Earlier this year, Nobel Peace Prize winner Barack Obama signed legislation that threatens U.S. residents with prison if they fail to purchase health insurance.

This week, his administration told the United Nations that this legislation shows the United States is making progress on human rights.