Tag: New York Times

From Cybercrime Statistics to Cyberspying

Someone finally decided to examine “cybercrime” statistics, and here’s what they found:

The cybercrime surveys we have examined exhibit [a] pattern of enormous, unverified outliers dominating the data. In some, 90 percent of the estimate appears to come from the answers of one or two individuals. In a 2006 survey of identity theft by the Federal Trade Commission, two respondents gave answers that would have added $37 billion to the estimate, dwarfing that of all other respondents combined. This is not simply a failure to achieve perfection or a matter of a few percentage points; it is the rule, rather than the exception. Among dozens of surveys, from security vendors, industry analysts and government agencies, we have not found one that appears free of this upward bias.

That’s Dinei Florêncio and Cormac Herley of Microsoft Research in a New York Times piece entitled: “The Cybercrime Wave That Wasn’t.”

You see, cybercrime statistics have been generated using surveys of individuals and businesses, but you can’t generate valid numerical results that way. An opinion poll’s errors will naturally cancel out—there are a roughly equal number of wrongly stated “thumbs-up”s and “thumbs-down”s.

When you ask people to estimate losses, though, they can never estimate less than zero, so errors will always push results to the high side. High-side errors extrapolated society-wide drive the perception that cybercrime is out of control.

There are more drivers of excess insecurity than just bad loss estimates. There are also data breach notification laws, which require data holders to report various kinds of personal data spillage. These reports are the high-tech, grown-up version of a favorite schoolyard taunt: “Your epidermis is showing!” Epidermis is, of course, a scientific name for skin. It often doesn’t matter that one’s epidermis is showing. The questions are: What part of the epidermis? And what social or economic consequences does it have?

Most breached data is put to no use whatsoever. A 2005 study of data breaches found the highest fraudulent misuse rate for all breaches under examination to be 0.098 percent—less than one in 1,000 identities. (The Government Accountability Office concurs that misuse of breached data is rare.) Larger breaches tend to have lower misuse rates, which makes popular reporting on gross numbers of personal data breaches misleading. Identity frauds are limited by the time and difficulty of executing them, not by access to data.

Why does excess cyber-insecurity matter? Doesn’t it beneficially drive companies to adopt better security practices for personal data?

It undoubtedly does, but security is not costless, and money driven to data security measures comes from other uses that might do more to make consumers better off. More importantly, though, data breach agitation and distended crime statistics have joined with other cybersecurity hype to generate a commitment in Congress to pass cybersecurity legislation.

Cybersecurity bills pending in both the House and Senate could have gruesome consequences for privacy because of “information sharing” provisions that immunize companies sharing data with the government for cybersecurity purposes. The potential for a huge, lawless cyberspying operation is significant if anyone can feed data to the government free of liability, including the privacy protections in property law, torts, and contract. Congress would not improve things by regulating in the name of cybersecurity, and it just might make things a lot worse.

It is ironic that overwrought claims about cybercrime and data breach could be privacy’s undoing, but they just might.

Randy Barnett and the Health Care Overhaul

Cato senior fellow Randy Barnett is featured on the front page of today’s New York Times as the chief academic critic of the constitutionality of the 2010 health care law. He spoke at Cato on that topic last Friday; video here.

The article notes his longstanding interest in the Ninth Amendment, the subject of his book published by Cato and the George Mason University Press in 1989, The Rights Retained by the People: The History and Meaning of the Ninth Amendment.

Professor Barnett also cooperated with Cato on his most recent book, Restoring the Lost Constitution: The Presumption of Liberty.

A Do-It-Yourself Guide to Cutting the Military Budget

The New York Times has posted a handy tool for calculating savings from the Pentagon’s budget over the next ten years. I went through the exercise, and my plan resulted in cuts of $1.144 trillion over ten years. Had I checked all of the boxes in the Times’s calculator, it would have generated savings of up to $1.4 trillion.

Though I support reform of the the military retirement system, I think some of these proposals go too far (they would have saved up to $86.5 billion). We should continue to spend money recruiting the very best force, comprised of the most-qualified men and women ($5 billion), and we might find it hard to do that if/when the economy improves. Tuition assistance is a key factor driving recruitment, and I wouldn’t scale that back ($5 billion). (Full disclosure: I attended college on an NROTC scholarship.) We need the best possible services for families, and I could foresee problems with closing elementary and secondary schools on bases ($10 billion). And I have no particular quarrel with military bands ($0.2 billion). My ideal military will be smaller and more elite, but likely better compensated than today’s force. And retirees would continue to receive many benefits not enjoyed by their fellows who never served, but we should experiment with ways to control costs. The key take-away, and the one stressed in the accompanying story by Elisabeth Bumiller and Thom Shanker, is that it is possible to reduce military spending, and the resulting force will still be larger and more capable than any conceivable combination of rivals.

A few additional observations:

1) The Times’s calculator cites my and Ben Friedman’s contribution to the Sustainable Defense Task Force report, “Debts, Deficits, and Defense,” but the main part of the report was the work of the entire task force, and they deserve proper credit. I am particularly grateful to Carl Conetta and Charles Knight of the Project for Defense Alternatives.

2) Ben and I published a stand-alone report a few months later with some numbers drawn from the SDTF report, and with some additional detail surrounding our proposals that were not endorsed by all SDTF members. Our savings were calculated against the baseline from fiscal year 2010, and these numbers are now a bit dated.

3) When I hit the submit button comparing my choices with others who participated in the exercise, I discovered 80 percent of respondents supported the plan to reduce forces in Europe and Asia. That sort of systematic restructuring is necessary to ensure that we don’t impose undue burdens on what will necessarily be a smaller force. As I have said repeatedly, if we are going to spend less, we must expect our troops to do less, and expect other countries to do more.

Tuesday Agriculture Links

Some interesting links on agriculture in the news today.

First, a terrific front-page article in the New York Times, about what my friend Vince Smith so accurately calls the “bait-and-switch” farmers are proposing in their offer to give up direct payments (subsidies that flow to farmers regardless of prices or production) in exchange for a new revenue insurance program.  As Vince so rightly points out, because the new revenue targets will be based on today’s current record crop prices, “If farm prices move back towards what are widely viewed as more normal levels than their current levels, farmers will be compensated for going back to business as usual.”  Vince blogs here about the proposed new revenue assurance program, and how it could end up costing us just as much as the current set of programs.

Farmers and their congressional sponsors are still blathering about “proportionality,” essentially saying that they should not have to contribute any more to budget cuts than any other area of the federal government. Here, for example, is a corn farmer, towing the party line:

“We are very much aware of the budgetary constraints of the federal government,” said Garry Niemeyer, an Illinois farmer who is president of the National Corn Growers Association. “We want to do our part as corn growers to help resolve those issues, but we only want to do our proportional part. We don’t want to have everything taken out on us.” [emphasis added]

This is wrong-headed. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: “proportionality” implies that everything the federal government currently does is equally valid. That is nonsense.  Some programs are legitimate, some less so. Some—like farm subsidies—not at all. Spending cuts should be made on the basis of legitimacy, not by some abstract formula equally applied. We should be reshaping (in a downward direction) the federal government here, not trimming a topiary hedge.

Second, Bloomberg.com has a good overview on the current state of the negotiations between the Congressional agriculture committees and the deficit-reduction supercommittee regarding the cuts to farm programs. The leaders of the agriculture panels have written a letter to the supercommittee, saying that cuts to agriculture programs should be limited to $23 billion and those cuts ”should absolve the programs in our jurisdiction from any further reduction.” So there.

Finally, here are Senators Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.)  on the wasteful and expensive sugar program.

Lawyers and Their Licenses

What do the New York Times, the Brookings Institution, and the Cato Institute have in common?  Turns out we agree on deregulating the legal profession. 

From a Times editorial:  “Another step is to allow nonlawyers into the mix. The American Bar Association has insisted that only lawyers can provide legal services, but there are many things nonlawyers should be able to handle, like processing uncontested divorces. “

From a Brookings op-ed: “It would be better to deregulate the provision of legal services. This would lower prices for clients and lead to more jobs.”

From a Cato paper: “Every state except Arizona prohibits the unauthorized practice of law (UPL); a person must possess an attorney’s license to hold himself out as a lawyer. UPL prohibitions restrict the right to pursue a legitimate occupation and the right to contract with others. By imposing a costly barrier to entry, they distort the market for legal services. Consequently, consumers face higher prices and fewer choices.”

It’s unanimous.  Get going state lawmakers—deregulate the legal profession.

Even the New York Times Wants to Cut Medicaid

From their editorial the other day:

There is no doubt that Medicaid… has to be cut substantially in future decades to help curb federal deficits. For cash-strapped states, program cuts may be necessary right now. But in reducing spending, government needs to ensure any changes will not cause undue harm to millions.

How would the Times cut Medicaid spending? The magic of central planning!

The best route to savings — already embodied in the reform law — is to make the health care system more efficient over all so that costs are reduced for Medicaid, Medicare and private insurers as well. Various pilot programs to reduce costs might be speeded up….

And if government were smart, rather than stupid, that would work.

I’ve got a better idea for cutting Medicaid that meets the Times’s criterion of not causing undue harm to millions.