- If “the Republicans regain only the House in the upcoming election…the estimated likelihood of at [least] some repeal during the 112th Congress is 52 percent.”
- If “Republicans regain both chambers in the upcoming midterm…the estimated likelihood of at [least] some repeal is 59 percent.”
- If “Republicans regain unified control of government in 2012…the estimated likelihood of some repeal in the 113th Congress is 69 percent.”
Ragusa is predicting only that the odds are better than 50-50 that Congress will repeal some part of the law, such as the expanded 1099 reporting, which House Democrats have already moved to eliminate because small businesses find it so onerous. He is not laying odds on whether Congress will repeal the entire law or its most important and unpopular provisions (i.e., ObamaCare’s individual mandate).
His post does shed light on the likelihood of repealing the individual mandate, however. As the below graph shows, the probability of repealing any provision of major legislation rises in each of the next five Congresses (i.e., over the subsequent 10 years). After that point, the probability of repeal begins to fall.
Note that this graph shows the instantaneous probability of repeal. The cumulative probability is the area under the curve, and increases monotonically over time. Thus the probability that Congress will repeal some part of ObamaCare by 2020 is more than 13 percent.
Ragusa therefore concludes:
the newly enacted law will be most “at risk” not in the next Congress, but a decade from now. So sit tight.
Also noteworthy is that Ragusa presents only the probability of legislative repeal. The prospect that the courts may invalidate all or part of the law increases the probability that some day, ObamaCare will no longer be on the books.