Tag: immigration enforcement

Is Obama Still the Deporter-In-Chief?

This is a difficult question to answer.  As Matt Graham at the Bipartisan Policy Center has pointed out, the rate of internal removals as a percentage of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removals has declined during the Obama Presidency.  But this, in and of itself, doesn’t tell us much about the long run trends of internal enforcement.  We need data from the past that we can compare President Obama’s immigration enforcement record to.  We only have the rate of internal deportations for the last year of the Bush Administration.  Cato has filed a FOIA to find out if the government kept statistics on internal versus border removals prior to 2008 but I’ve heard the data wasn’t kept.

Let’s assume that 63.6 percent of all ICE removals were internal from 2001 to 2007.  I chose 63.6 percent because that was ICE’s internal removal rates in the year 2008 – the first year when that statistic is available.  That means that the number of internal removals under the Bush administration was about 1.25 million.  From 2009-2013, the Obama administration’s has removed just over 1 million from the interior of the United States.  Of course, Bush had three more years to deport unauthorized immigrants.  660,000 people were removed from the interior of the United States during the first five years of the Bush administration.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, BPC, Author’s Calculations.

President Bush removed an average of about 250,000 unauthorized immigrants a year, an average of 160,000 of them annually were interior removals.  President Obama has removed an average of 390,000 unauthorized immigrants a year, an average of 200,000 of them annually were interior removals.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, BPS, Author’s Calculations.

As I’ve written before, the best way to measure the intensity of immigration enforcement is to look at the percentage of the unauthorized immigrant population deported in each year.

Source: Department of Homeland Security, BPC, Pew, Author’s Calculations.

I focus on the internal removal figures as a percentage of the estimated unauthorized immigrant population and assume that the internal removal rate of 63.6 percent prevailed throughout the Bush administration.  If that interior enforcement rate was steady, then the Bush administration deported an average of 1.43 percent of the interior unauthorized immigrant population every year of his presidency.  President Obama’s administration has deported an average of 1.75 percent of the interior unauthorized immigrant population every year of his presidency.  Even when focusing on interior removals, President Obama is still out-deporting President Bush - so far.

The Obama interior removal statistics certainly show a downward trend – especially in 2012 and 2013.  However, the Obama administration has not gutted or radically reduced internal immigration enforcement no matter how you dice the numbers.

E-Verify Strikes Again: Worcester Wreath Co. Edition

Whenever the government magnanimously “offers” its assistance, all Americans should be skeptical. Recent confirmation of this fact has come from Harrington, Maine, where the federal government’s helpful assistance—via the employment verification system, E-Verify—has cost one small business thousands in fines.

Worcester Wreath Co. hires around 500 seasonal employees annually to help fill orders for handcrafted holiday wreaths and centerpieces. The majority of the wreaths are sold, while others go to the company’s Wreaths Across America program, which places free wreaths on headstones at Arlington National Cemetery. In short, this is an American company that supplies holiday goods and helps to honor deceased American veterans at no cost to the taxpayer.

Worcester Wreath, however, made the mistake of voluntarily using the Fed’s E-Verify system. E-Verify is an electronic employment eligibility verification system run by the federal government that is intended to weed unauthorized immigrants out of the labor force by allowing employers to check their eligibility against a government database. The employer enters the job applicant’s Social Security number and information into E-Verify which then checks it against a government database. 

Any potential issues are flagged with a tentative non-confirmation (TNC). Employers and employees have an opportunity to appeal the TNC, but a failed appeal (or failure to appeal) will result in a final non-confirmation (FNC) and the applicant being ruled as not work-authorized for legal employment in the United States.

Some 101 of Worcester Wreath’s seasonal employees were found by E-Verify to have employment-authorization issues. Six were retained by the company despite the issues and another six were fired and then rehired at a later date.

For the sin of employing 12 willing workers with statuses marked as questionable (not clear from the article whether a TNC or an FNC was issued) by the voluntarily used, notoriously unreliable, and largely ineffective E-Verify, the company was fined $25,000 ($2,083.33 per worker).

Worchester Wreath’s participation in E-Verify was voluntary but the fines were heavy. Fines like these on businesses of all sizes who employ seasonal workers will only get worse if E-Verify becomes mandatory. Instead of punishing businesses who supply free holiday decorations to the world’s most famous veterans’ cemetery, the Feds should attack the root problem and fix our legal immigration system.  

Scott Platton assisted in the writing of this piece.

Obama’s Deportation Numbers: Border and Interior Immigration Enforcement Are Substitutes, Not Complements

It’s become clear over the last few months that something very funny is going on with immigration enforcement statistics (here, here, and here).  The data generally show that interior enforcement, what most people commonly think of as “deportations” (but also includes I-9, Secure Communities, and E-Verify), has declined as a percentage of total removals.  Many of the removals appear to be unlawful immigrants apprehended by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and then turned over to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for removal – a trend that began in 2012 and accelerated in 2013.  That transfer makes it appear as if there was more internal enforcement than there really was.  The administration is therefore deporting an increasing number of recent border crossers and a decreasing number of unlawful immigrants apprehended in the interior. 

It appears, then, that President Obama’s reputation for severe interior enforcement was earned for 2009, 2010, and 2011 but is somewhat unjustified in 2012 and 2013.  The Bipartisan Policy Center has an excellent report on the enormous court backlogs and other issues that have arisen due to interior immigration enforcement.  I’m waiting for additional information from a FOIA request before wading into the data surrounding the interior versus border removals controversy because we do not have data on internal enforcement numbers prior to 2008.    

Interior enforcement is only part of the government’s immigration enforcement strategy and must also be looked at as a component of broader immigration enforcement that includes border enforcement.

E-Verify Does Not “Turn Off” Job Magnet

One of the main claims of E-Verify’ ssupporters is that it will turn off the job magnet that incentivizes unauthorized immigration.  A recent Working Paper by economists Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny casts doubt on that.

They find that E-Verify mandates in the states have decreased wages of likely Mexican unauthorized immigrant men by about 7.8 percent and unauthorized immigrant Mexican women by 1.2 percent.  The likelihood of men being employed is not much affected by E-Verify but it does increase female employment and labor force participation – which makes sense in the context of making migration and employment decisions on the family level.  Clearly, E-Verify has diminished the anticipated wage gains from illegally immigrating to the United States.

However, E-Verify has not turned off the job magnet.  Assuming that unauthorized immigrant men and women earn the same wages, the estimated gains to coming here for the marginal Mexican immigrant is only slightly lowered.  Based on gender data from Pew and comparing the wages of identical workers in Mexico and the United States, here are some back of the envelope calculations showing how E-Verify has affected wages for unauthorized Mexican immigrants:

Unauthorized Immigrant Workers 

 

Female

Male

All

Gender

39.4%

60.6%

100.0%

Monthly Wages in U.S. (Pre-E-Verify)

 $  1,470.80

 $  1,470.80

 $  1,470.80

Monthly Wages in Mexico

      $580.90

     $580.90

     $580.90

Wages Multiple from Working in U.S.

2.53

2.53

2.53

Monthly Wages (Post E-Verify)

$1,453.15

$1,356.08

$1,394.32

Wages Multiple from Working in U.S. Under E-Verify

2.50

2.33

2.40

Sources: Center for Global Development, Pew Hispanic Center, and Dallas Fed Working Paper

E-Verify lowers the wage gain for all Mexican unauthorized workers from 2.53 times as great as in Mexico to 2.4 times as great – a whopping 5 percent decrease.  That’s not much to brag about considering E-Verify is supposed to be the lynchpin of future immigration enforcement.  It’s hard to see how E-Verify proponents can look at this small wage effect and conclude that E-Verify is worth it, given the enormous array of problems and burdens caused by it.  In practice, E-Verify does not turn off the job magnet that attracts unauthorized immigrants to our shores and will not if it is ever mandated.   

E-Verify Can Now “Lock” Social Security Numbers

Immigration reform is taking its time in Congress but the executive branch agencies charged with enforcing immigration laws have not been idle. Rather, they’ve been implementing bits and pieces of the reform package on their own – but not any of the good ones. 

Last month, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced that it will “lock” a Social Security number when E-Verify or USCIS employees, based on new algorithms, believe the number is fraudulent or used fraudulently. The number is locked and a tentative non-confirmation (TNC) is issued to the applicant or applicants using the contested number – preventing any further E-Verify confirmations until the fraudulent user proves he or she is the lawful holder.

Although my colleagues and I have written extensively about the E-Verify system and its threat to liberties and economic growth, locking adds a newer negative dimension.   

“Locking” was proposed as part of the summer’s comprehensive immigration reform bill that was passed by the Senate and in the House’s Legal Workforce Act. Locking was a bad idea in those bills and remains a bad idea today when implemented by regulatory fiat.

E-Verify’s Continued Ineffectiveness

Now that the government shutdown is over, Congress’ attention will turn to other issues.  There is a possibility that a series of immigration reform bills will be voted on in the House of Representatives before the end of the year.  One bill will certainly include mandatory E-Verify.

As my colleagues and I have written over the last several years, E-Verify is bad for businesses, taxpayers, the privacy of all Americans and residents, economic growth in general, and it won’t stop unlawful hiring.  Don’t believe me on the last point?  Just look at Arizona.  Here is a table of the number of all new hires in the state and the number of E-Verify queries run per quarter:

Year, Quarter

All New Hires

E-Verify Queries

Percent

2008, 1

558,949

36,723

6.6%

2008, 2

563,980

238,593

42.3%

2008, 3

533,502

265,452

49.8%

2008, 4

563,744

276,371

49.0%

2009, 1

385,166

197,612

51.3%

2009, 2

376,634

167,313

44.4%

2009, 3

353,744

172,350

48.7%

2009, 4

477,636

184,053

38.5%

2010, 1

353,612

160,790

45.5%

2010, 2

427,575

199,885

46.7%

2010, 3

384,026

310,648

80.9%

2010, 4

470,302

273,955

58.3%

2011, 1

363,854

220,471

60.6%

2011, 2

446,439

229,635

51.4%

2011, 3

455,134

249,873

54.9%

2011, 4

513,352

281,277

54.8%

2012, 1

406,895

224,396

55.1%

2012, 2

429,773

230,169

53.6%

2012, 3

454,834

267,577

58.8%

2012, 4

496,482

296,856

59.8%

Source: U.S. Census and Department of Homeland Security

Although all hires in Arizona are supposed to be run through E-Verify, an average of just over 50 percent of hires actually were from 2008 to the end of 2012.  These numbers actually overstate E-Verify’s enforcement record because multiple E-Verify queries could be run on the same hire.  The numerator could be a lot smaller than is reported above.    

If a state like Arizona will not enforce E-Verify, what chance is there that the federal government will do it everywhere?  Thankfully, lax enforcement of E-Verify in Arizona is a good indicator that this harmful system will not get the chance to be as destructive as many of us fear if it is ever mandated nationally.