Global warming theory predicts increased mortality due to global warming, but observations frequently suggest the opposite. The newest case-in-point comes from a study by Chau and Woo (2015).
Setting the stage for their enlightening new study, the pair of researchers note there is a growing concern about the potential impacts of global warming on human mortality, where some researchers estimate future increases in heat-related deaths will outnumber future decreases in cold-related deaths. In a test of this hypothesis, the two Chinese scientists examined summer (June-August) versus winter (December-February) excess mortality trends among the older population (65 years and older) of Hong Kong citizens over the 35-year period 1976-2010. This was accomplished through the performance of statistical analyses that searched for relationships between various measures of extreme meteorological data and recorded deaths due to cardiovascular and respiratory-related causes. And what did those analyses reveal?
With respect to the weather, Chau and Woo report there was an average rise in mean temperature of “0.15°C per decade in 1947–2013 and an increase of 0.20°C per decade in 1984–2013.” They also note that over the 35-year period of their analysis “winter became less stressful” with fewer extreme cold spells. Summers, on the other hand, became “more stressful as the number of Hot Nights in summer increased by 0.3 days per year and the number of summer days with very high humidity (daily relative humidity over 93%) increased by 0.1 days per year.” Given such observations it would be expected—under global warming theory—that cold-related deaths should have declined and heat-related deaths should have increased across the length of the record. But did they?