Tag: Gary Johnson

Jesse Ventura and Gary Johnson

 

[Note:  Normally I have the good sense to keep my writing focused on trade policy topics.  This blogpost is an exception.  It would not be wise to place much confidence in my abilities as a political analyst.  However, I lived in Minnesota and was politically active during the 1998 gubernatorial election.  That experience left me with impressions that are shared below.]

Jesse Ventura is an intriguing individual.  In 1998 he was nominated by the Reform Party of Minnesota as their candidate for governor.  Among his several prior careers were:  Navy special-forces diver; professional wrestler; screen actor; radio and TV personality; and mayor of Brooklyn Park, a suburb of Minneapolis. He has a disdain for “politics as usual,” especially when wrangling between Democrats and Republicans results in poor use of taxpayer funds.  He has an outsized personality, a robust and brash sense humor, and enjoys the limelight. He also looks great in a feather boa.

Ventura described himself as “fiscally conservative and socially liberal,” a straightforward expression of his libertarian philosophy.  He had considerable interest in policy issues, more than is the case for some candidates in the 2016 presidential campaign.  His fiscal priorities included reforms in sales, property, and income taxes.  On social issues, he supported the right for gays to serve in the military and to marry.  He was quite open about not having all the answers, readily admitting that he hadn’t formed opinions on every aspect of state policy.

In sharp contrast to the likely Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2016 presidential race, Ventura ran against solid, mainstream nominees from both those parties.  Hubert H. “Skip” Humphrey III, Minnesota’s attorney general and son of the former U.S. senator and vice president, was the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) choice.  Norm Coleman, well regarded for his service as mayor of St. Paul, was selected by the Republicans.  Neither of them had particularly high negative ratings.  A poll conducted in late October 1998 showed 33 percent with an unfavorable view of Humphrey, and 26 percent taking a dim view of Coleman.  Ventura’s unfavorable rating was 21 percent.  (Such ratings would be envied by today’s major-party presidential candidates, both of whom are viewed negatively by some 50-60 percent of recent poll respondents.)

A June 1998 poll commissioned by Minnesota Public Radio (MPR), KARE 11 TV, and the Pioneer Press asked respondents for whom they likely would vote.  The results:

  • Humphrey       46 %
  • Coleman          30 %
  • Ventura             7 %
  • Undecided       17 %

In contrast to Ventura’s 7 percent number from June 1998, recent polling shows Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson receiving support of 11-12 percent for his 2016 presidential bid.  So Johnson’s candidacy as of June is doing relatively better than Ventura’s did.

A similar MPR/KARE/Pioneer Press poll conducted in late October, shortly before the election, showed:

  • Humphrey       34 %
  • Coleman          33 %
  • Ventura           23 %
  • Undecided       10 %

Ventura had increased his support by 16 percentage points, mostly coming at the expense of Humphrey (decline of 12 points).  Coleman gained 3 points.

The final results on Election Day, Nov. 3, 1998, were:

  • Ventura           37 %
  • Coleman          34 %
  • Humphrey       28 % 

Ventura gained 14 percentage points of support during the final ten days of the campaign to win election as the 38th governor of Minnesota.  This swing was aided by his performance in the debate on Oct. 24, along with creative advertising that featured a Jesse Ventura action figure and Ventura singing a campaign song to the theme from “Shaft.”

Ventura’s victory was remarkable.  As a keen observer of Minnesota politics that summer and fall, I confess to having been dumbfounded.  If I had been asked in June 1998 whether there was any chance Ventura actually would win the race, I simply would have said it was impossible.  The real question was how much support his unconventional – albeit enjoyable – campaign would draw from Humphrey and Coleman.  But Ventura did win, and he earned it.  He presented ideas and attitude that were more engaging than those being offered by two other credible candidates.

Fast forward to 2016.  Gary Johnson definitely is not a clone of Jesse Ventura.  Johnson was a successful businessman who served two terms as a Republican governor of New Mexico.  He is notably less flamboyant than Ventura, but probably more accustomed to explaining libertarian concepts to a broad audience.  It’s clear that the odds are against an outright win by Johnson.  Having lived through an “impossible” victory, though, I’d rate Johnson’s prospects as better than that – perhaps “highly improbable” would be the right term. 

Of course, the electoral college may make it feasible for Johnson to have a very meaningful effect on the outcome of the election, even if he doesn’t garner the most votes nationwide.  Consider the hypothetical situation in which he wins his home state of New Mexico, which has five electoral votes.  If the major party candidates split the remaining electors evenly, no one would receive the 270 votes needed for election.  In that scenario, the outcome would be decided by state delegations in the House of Representatives. 

Ventura and Johnson know each other.  Ventura endorsed Johnson’s candidacy when he ran for the White House as the Libertarian nominee in 2012, and has encouraged people to vote for him again this year.  Ventura has a substantial following across the country, so may be in a position to take other steps on behalf of the Johnson campaign.  Who knows?  Perhaps that might include coaching him on proper use of a feather boa.

It should be an interesting campaign.

Daniel R. Pearson is a senior fellow in the Cato Institute’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies.

Johnson and Weld Are Right, Clinton Is Wrong: Congress Should Privatize the VA

Listening to Hillary Clinton put her big-government ideology before the needs of veterans (see below video) brings to mind an email exchange I had recently with a correspondent who had questions about privatizing Medicare, Medicaid, and the Veterans Health Administration.

The video is an interview with Libertarian presidential and vice presidential candidates Gary Johnson and Bill Weld into which MSNBC interjected a telephone interview with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Clinton protests (starting at 4:20) that Congress should not privatize the VHA, while Bill Weld, a former two-term Republican governor of Massachusetts, gives one of the best explanations I’ve seen of why it should (10:00).

The email exchange follows the video.

Voting in 2012, Libertarian and Otherwise

Somehow, election results continue to trickle in, and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report continues to update his spreadsheet of the national popular vote. At this point, he shows President Obama reelected with 50.86 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney’s 47.43 percent. For whatever reason, the late-arriving results all seem to widen Obama’s lead.

The total vote appears to be down by almost 4 million votes from 2008, and Obama has received about 4.7 million fewer votes than he did in his first campaign. Romney received slightly more votes than John McCain did.

Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson received 1,265,000 votes, according to Wikipedia, whose mysterious editors show the votes for every candidate. That’s the most any Libertarian presidential candidate has ever received. It amounts to 0.99 percent, just shy of Ed Clark’s 1.06 percent in 1980. If Johnson had been on the ballot in Michigan and Oklahoma, he would surely have broken 1 percent, though he still probably wouldn’t have exceeded Clark’s percentage. (Michigan and Oklahoma haven’t been very good states for Libertarian candidates.) Johnson’s best states were New Mexico, where he served two terms as governor, followed by Montana and Alaska.

The Libertarian Party reports that seven Libertarian statewide candidates in Texas and Georgia received more than a million votes.

Don’t forget to read the new ebook The Libertarian Vote: Swing Voters, Tea Parties, and the Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal Center, which discusses how the millions of libertarian-leaning voters in America tend to vote. (It does not have 2012 results.)

Willie Nelson Endorses Gary Johnson for President

Politico reported earlier today that iconic crooner Willie Nelson has endorsed former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson for president. Johnson came to be known as “Governor Veto” for axing nearly half of all the bills sent to him by the legislature, and I am  starting the rumor rumors are already circulating that Nelson will record a new song, to the tune of his hit “To all the girls I’ve loved before,” celebrating that fact.

We cannot confirm that the lyrics will go something like this:

To all the bills I’ve axed before
That traveled in and out my door
I’m mad they came along
I dedicate this song
To all the bills I’ve axed before

To all the bills that made me laugh
I kept the wheat and axed the chaff
Inane legislation
Explains my great frustration
With all the bills I’ve axed before

Walking dogs just ain’t a proper thing
For government to regulate
Legislators to their powers cling
But that ain’t no role for the state

To all the bills I’ve slashed and burned
The dumb laws that I’ve dissed and spurned
I’m mad they came along
They were profoundly wrong
And that’s why I showed them the door

To all the bills I’ve axed before
We can’t afford dumb laws no more
We need fiscal restraint
That was my main complaint
With all the bills I’ve axed before

Tuesday Links

  • “Given America’s large-scale, long-term nation-building mission in Afghanistan, another chapter remains unfinished.”
  • It doesn’t make a lot of sense to refer to a government whose intelligence service assists military efforts by al Qaeda and the Taliban against U.S. troops in Afghanistan as an ‘ally.’”
  • “Terrorists are not superhuman.”
  • “Physicians must either make up for this shortfall by shifting costs to those patients with insurance — meaning those of us with insurance pay more — or treat patients at a loss.”
  • Is America in a libertarian moment?


The Libertarian Moment?

On NPR, Mara Liasson tells Melissa Block that we’re in a “libertarian moment” in politics:

BLOCK: And Ron Paul appears to be running. Again, he got a lot of devoted followers on the Internet last time during the 2008 bid, not so many votes in the primary. So this time around, is he a significant addition to the Republican field or more of an asterisk?

LIASSON: Well, I don’t think he’s a huge factor in terms of the nomination. In the 2008 GOP primary, he got only about 6 percent of the Republican vote. However, as you said, he does have a devoted following, lots of libertarian-leaning young people. He can raise millions of dollars online in a single day in one of his famous money bombs. So he brings energy to the party, and the Republican Party base seems to have caught up to him on the issues.

The GOP is in a real libertarian moment right now, and Paul has always been all about the debt and the deficit and taxes and spending. You could call him the godfather of the Tea Party.

Of course, Paul may have to split the libertarian Republican vote with former two-term governor Gary Johnson. Johnson also was “a Tea Partier when tea-partying wasn’t cool,” according to the Capitol Report of New Mexico. He vetoed 750 bills in eight years, not counting line-item vetoes. And since today’s libertarian moment goes beyond spending and health care to include rising support for gay marriage and marijuana legalization, Johnson might be better positioned to ride that wave and attract younger and independent voters.

Footnote: Two weeks ago NPR speculated about an Ayn Rand moment building from the financial crisis to the opening of Atlas Shrugged.