Tag: economics

Earmark Donor States

I have an op-ed in Politico about “earmark donor states.” It’s a term I invented to highlight a rarely discussed side of earmarking: public choice economics.

As public choice theory would predict, the earmarking process operates under a system of concentrated benefits and diffuse costs.  Based on an analysis of 2009 data, 16 states receive a disproportionately large percentage of the earmark pie and can be labeled “earmark beneficiary” states. The other 34 states and the District of Columbia are “earmark donors,” as they receive fewer earmark dollars than they proportionally should.

To determine which states win and lose in the earmarking game, I looked at the share of taxes each state sends to Washington and compared it to the share of earmarks that each state receives. 

In the op-ed, I use Colorado, one of the biggest earmark donor states, as an example:

Colorado taxpayers contribute about 1.6 percent of total federal taxes, but they receive just over two-tenths of one percent of earmarked funds—proportionally speaking, less than a third of what it should be getting. This works out to more than $200 million dollars that Coloradans are spending to subsidize earmarks in other states – hardly chump change. So while Colorado’s representatives might pat themselves on the back for securing funding for an occasional municipal bus or bioenergy plant, their earmarking rivals in other states like West Virginia and Hawaii obtain funding for larger and more expensive projects and send the bill to the Centennial State.

Below is a table with additional data indicating which states are earmark donors and recipients.  The key column is the “earmark ratio.” The lower the figure, the smaller a state’s share of earmarks is relative to the amount of taxes its residents and businesses pay.  A state with an earmark ratio below 100% is a donor state.  As you can see, Utah is the first state on the table that receives slightly more than its proportional share of earmark funds. Mississippi, the last state on the list, remarkably receives 11 times more than its proportional share. 

 Also note that the most populous states in the country are earmark donors – almost 90 percent of Americans live in earmark donor states.

State TOTAL FEDERAL TAXES % of Total Taxes Proportional Share of Earmarks (millions of $) Earmarks Received (millions of $) % of Total Earmarks Earmark Ratio % of Delegation on Approps
New York 193,446,916 8.2% 1642.75 418.71 2.1% 25.5% 12.9%
Illinois 116,130,852 5.0% 986.18 252.19 1.3% 25.6% 14.3%
Nebraska 16,200,400 0.7% 137.57 41.53 0.2% 30.2% 20.0%
Colorado 38,484,608 1.6% 326.81 106.15 0.5% 32.5% 11.1%
Connecticut 44,684,141 1.9% 379.46 124.83 0.6% 32.9% 14.3%
New Jersey 103,548,696 4.4% 879.34 319.06 1.6% 36.3% 13.3%
Arizona 32,372,226 1.4% 274.91 102.00 0.5% 37.1% 10.0%
Ohio 103,638,344 4.4% 880.10 345.98 1.7% 39.3% 25.0%
Georgia 59,486,251 2.5% 505.16 203.94 1.0% 40.4% 13.3%
Minnesota 67,646,589 2.9% 574.46 233.10 1.2% 40.6% 10.0%
Texas 200,521,512 8.5% 1702.83 695.59 3.5% 40.8% 17.6%
California 264,868,391 11.3% 2249.27 971.05 4.9% 43.2% 14.5%
Indiana 42,108,854 1.8% 357.59 156.44 0.8% 43.7% 9.1%
Massachusetts 70,108,079 3.0% 595.36 265.75 1.3% 44.6% 8.3%
Wisconsin 38,642,363 1.6% 328.15 171.34 0.9% 52.2% 20.0%
North
Carolina
63,348,252 2.7% 537.95 288.11 1.4% 53.6% 6.7%
Pennsylvania 106,613,979 4.5% 905.37 488.57 2.5% 54.0% 14.3%
Tennessee 44,047,939 1.9% 374.06 208.02 1.0% 55.6% 27.3%
Michigan 56,050,689 2.4% 475.98 279.99 1.4% 58.8% 5.9%
Florida 110,156,809 4.7% 935.45 556.55 2.8% 59.5% 14.8%
Delaware 13,683,353 0.6% 116.20 69.38 0.3% 59.7% 0.0%
Oklahoma 24,297,410 1.0% 206.33 123.91 0.6% 60.1% 14.3%
Oregon 21,736,643 0.9% 184.59 111.85 0.6% 60.6% 0.0%
Virginia 58,598,281 2.5% 497.62 312.80 1.6% 62.9% 15.4%
Wyoming 3,833,691 0.2% 32.56 21.33 0.1% 65.5% 0.0%
District of
Columbia
19,487,689 0.8% 165.49 111.59 0.6% 67.4% 0.0%
Missouri 44,310,000 1.9% 376.28 256.45 1.3% 68.2% 18.2%
Washington 48,587,720 2.1% 412.61 287.22 1.4% 69.6% 18.2%
Maryland 44,484,984 1.9% 377.77 304.09 1.5% 80.5% 10.0%
Kansas 20,374,354 0.9% 173.02 141.68 0.7% 81.9% 33.3%
New Hampshire 8,739,838 0.4% 74.22 62.40 0.3% 84.1% 25.0%
Louisiana 34,882,848 1.5% 296.23 272.57 1.4% 92.0% 22.2%
Arkansas 25,727,268 1.1% 218.48 202.37 1.0% 92.6% 33.3%
Rhode Island 10,909,205 0.5% 92.64 87.58 0.4% 94.5% 50.0%
South Carolina 17,806,603 0.8% 151.21 145.36 0.7% 96.1% 0.0%
Utah 14,270,839 0.6% 121.19 131.18 0.7% 108.2% 20.0%
Idaho 6,859,632 0.3% 58.25 63.27 0.3% 108.6% 25.0%
Nevada 13,770,576 0.6% 116.94 129.88 0.7% 111.1% 0.0%
Kentucky 23,313,696 1.0% 197.98 248.74 1.2% 125.6% 37.5%
Maine 6,105,799 0.3% 51.85 73.04 0.4% 140.9% 25.0%
Iowa 17,614,407 0.8% 149.58 336.88 1.7% 225.2% 28.6%
Alabama 20,093,422 0.9% 170.63 424.18 2.1% 248.6% 33.3%
Vermont 3,366,627 0.1% 28.59 81.97 0.4% 286.7% 33.3%
Montana 4,136,011 0.2% 35.12 101.02 0.5% 287.6% 66.7%
South Dakota 4,888,826 0.2% 41.52 135.48 0.7% 326.3% 33.3%
New Mexico 8,188,815 0.3% 69.54 235.09 1.2% 338.1% 0.0%
North Dakota 4,115,943 0.2% 34.95 136.79 0.7% 391.3% 33.3%
Hawaii 6,747,592 0.3% 57.30 270.74 1.4% 472.5% 25.0%
Alaska 4,670,157 0.2% 39.66 227.81 1.1% 574.4% 33.3%
West Virginia 6,332,264 0.3% 53.77 336.92 1.7% 626.6% 20.0%
Mississippi 9,603,121 0.4% 81.55 900.57 4.5% 1104.3% 16.7%

Source:
IRS: http://www.irs.gov/taxstats/article/0„id=206488,00.html
Taxpayers for Common Sense
Author’s calculations

Suspecting that the disparity between states is a product of political clout, I calculated the percentage of each state’s congressional delegation serving on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees.  The graph below shows the correlation between this metric and the earmark ratio of each state. The closely tracking trend lines suggest there is a connection between a state’s representation on the Appropriations Committees and earmarks. The correlation between these figures is 0.264, which is especially strong when you consider that earmarking proponents often argue that the process is entirely merit-driven and apolitical.  To be sure, this is a very rough indicator – earmark recipient states like Alaska and West Virginia were long represented by earmark champions Ted Stevens and Robert Byrd, neither of whom is included in the figure.  Also, it should be noted that Hawaii and Mississippi are represented by Daniel Inouye and Thad Cochran who, respectively, are the chairman and ranking Republican on the Senate Appropriations Committee.  As such, they carry significantly more clout than the average appropriator. Additionally, Nevada’s status as an earmark beneficiary state despite its lack of appropriators might be explained by Senator Harry Reid’s influence as Senate Majority Leader.

I also evaluated the correlation between earmark ratios and median income. Based on the arguments of earmark proponents, one would expect a very strong negative correlation here as earmarking is intended to direct federal funds to needy, underserved parts of the country.  The strength of that correlation is -0.255, which is slightly weaker than the political-based correlation.  This suggests that in the earmarking process, political power is more important than financial need.

The connection between political power and earmarking prowess is hardly surprising. More startling is the disparity between the shortchanged earmark donor states and the earmark beneficiary states. Perhaps politicians from donor states are unaware of the extent to which their constituents subsidize out-of-state projects. More likely, most congressmen are successfully pulling off a political sleight of hand – trumpeting their occasional earmark project and hoping it distracts their constituents from the disproportionately large number of earmarks in other states.

After all, the vast majority of Americans would be far better off if Congress stopped earmarking and removed itself from spending decisions that should be made by local governments and private entities.  

I must acknowledge several of my colleagues who helped with this analysis – many thanks to Kurt Couchman and Andrew Mast.

Will the Federal Reserve’s Easy-Money Policy Turn the United States into a Global Laughingstock?

Early in the Obama Administration, there was an amusing/embarrassing incident when Chinese students laughed at Treasury Secretary Geithner when he claimed the United States had a strong-dollar policy.

I suspect that even Geithner would be smart enough to avoid such a claim today, not after the Fed’s announcement (with the full support of the White House and Treasury) that it would flood the economy with $600 billion of hot money. Here’s what my colleague Alan Reynolds wrote in the Wall Street Journal about Bernanke’s policy.

Mr. Bernanke…believes (contrary to our past experience with stagflation) that inflation is no danger thanks to economic slack (high unemployment). He reasons that if people can nonetheless be persuaded to expect higher inflation, regardless of the slack, that means interest rates will appear even lower in real terms. If that worked as planned, lower real interest rates would supposedly fix our hangover from the last Fed-financed borrowing binge by encouraging more borrowing. This whole scheme raises nagging questions. Why would domestic investors accept a lower yield on bonds if they expect higher inflation? And why would foreign investors accept a lower yield on U.S. bonds if they expect exchange rate losses on dollar-denominated securities? Why wouldn’t intelligent people shift their investments toward commodities or related stocks (such as mining and related machinery) and either shun, or sell short, long-term Treasurys? And if they did that, how could it possibly help the economy?

The rest of the world seems to share these concerns. The Germans are not big fans of America’s binge of borrowing and easy money. Here’s what Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble had to say in a recent interview.

The American growth model, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. The United States lived on borrowed money for too long, inflating its financial sector unnecessarily and neglecting its small and mid-sized industrial companies. …I seriously doubt that it makes sense to pump unlimited amounts of money into the markets. There is no lack of liquidity in the US economy, which is why I don’t recognize the economic argument behind this measure. …The Fed’s decisions bring more uncertainty to the global economy. …It’s inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress the dollar exchange rate by printing money.

The comment about borrowed money has a bit of hypocrisy since German government debt is not much lower than it is in the United States, but the Finance Minister surely is correct about monetary policy. And speaking of China, we now have the odd situation of a Chinese rating agency downgrading U.S. government debt.

The United States has lost its double-A credit rating with Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd., the first domestic rating agency in China, due to its new round of quantitative easing policy. Dagong Global on Tuesday downgraded the local and foreign currency long-term sovereign credit rating of the US by one level to A+ from previous AA with “negative” outlook.

This development shold be taken with a giant grain of salt, as explained by a Wall Street Journal blogger. Nonetheless, the fact that the China-based agency thought this was a smart tactic must say something about how the rest of the world is beginning to perceive America.

Simply stated, Obama is following Jimmy Carter-style economic policy, so nobody should be surprised if the result is 1970s-style stagflation.

Free Deirdre McCloskey E-Book from University of Chicago Press

Every month, the University of Chicago Press offers a free e-book from its catalog of thought-provoking titles. This month it’s Deirdre McCloskey’s The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce (2006).

We discussed her follow-up volume, Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can’t Explain the Modern World (2010), in last month’s Cato Unbound. Back in 2006, Cato Policy Report gave a short summary of McCloskey’s argument in The Bourgeois Virtues.

Her argument as I understand it is that commerce and virtue can be mutually reinforcing. Obviously they aren’t always so, but this positive feedback loop has governed much of world history in the modern era, helping to create the world we see around us today. I’d encourage anyone who takes interest in the intersection of markets, virtue, and modernity to take a look. And best of all, it’s free.

Mirror, Mirror, on the Wall, Which Nation Has the Most Debt of All?

The Economist has a fascinating webpage that allows readers to look at all the world’s nations and compare them based on various measures of government debt (and for various years).

The most economically relevant measure is public debt as a share of GDP, and you can see that the United States is not in great shape, though many nations have more accumulated red ink (especially Japan, where debt is much higher than it is even in Greece).  As faithful readers of this blog already understand, the real issue is the size of government, but this site is a good indicator of nations that finance their spending in a risky fashion.

By the way, keep in mind that these figures do not include unfunded liabilities. For those who worry about debt, those are the truly shocking numbers (at least for the United States and other nations with government-run pension and health schemes).

Overhauling CBO and JCT Is a Real Test of GOP Resolve, not the ‘Pledge to America’

While I’m glad Republicans are finally talking about smaller government, I’ve expressed some disappointment with the GOP Pledge to America. Why “reform” Fannie and Freddie, I asked, when the right approach is to get the government completely out of the housing sector. Jacob Sullum of Reason is similarly underwhelmed. He writes:

In the “Pledge to America” they unveiled last week, House Republicans promise they will “launch a sustained effort to stem the relentless growth in government that has occurred over the past decade.” Who better for the job than the folks who ran the government for most of that time? …Republicans, you may recall, had a spending spree of their own during George W. Bush’s recently concluded administration, when both discretionary and total spending doubled – nearly 10 times the growth seen during Bill Clinton’s two terms. In fact, says Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, “President Bush increased government spending more than any of the six presidents preceding him, including LBJ.” Republicans controlled the House of Representatives for six of Bush’s eight years.

Redemption is a good thing, however, so maybe the GOP actually intends to do the right thing this time around. One key test is whether Republicans do a top-to-bottom housecleaning at both the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation.

These Capitol Hill bureaucracies are not well known, but they have enormous authority and influence. As the official scorekeepers of spending (CBO) and tax (JCT) bills, these two bureaucracies can mortally wound legislation or grease the skids for quick passage.

Unfortunately, that clout gets used to dramatically tilt the playing field in favor of bigger government. It was CBO that claimed that Obama’s stimulus created jobs, even though the head of CBO was forced to admit that the jobs-created number was the result of a Keynesian model that was rigged to show exactly that result . You would think that would shame the bureaucrats into producing honest numbers, but CBO continues to produce absurd job creation estimates regardless of the actual rate of unemployment.

CBO favors deficits and debt when it is asked to analyze proposals for more spending, but it rather conveniently changes its tune when the discussion shifts to tax increases. Since we’re on the topic of twisted economic analysis, CBO actually relies on a model which, for all intents and purposes, predicts that economic performance is maximized with 100 percent tax rates.

The Joint Committee on Taxation, meanwhile, is infamous for its assumption that taxes have no impact - at all - on economic output. In other words, instead of showing a Laffer Curve, JCT would show a straight line, with tax revenues continuing to rapidly climb even as tax rates approach 100 percent.  This creates a huge bias against good tax policy, yet JCT is impervious to evidence that its approach is wildly flawed.

And don’t forget that CBO and JCT both bear responsibility for Obamacare since they cranked out preposterous estimates that a giant new entitlement would lead to lower budget deficits.

Not that we need additional evidence, but the head of the CBO just repeated his higher-taxes-equal-more-growth nonsense in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee. With this type of mindset, is it any surprise that fiscal policy is such a mess?

Douglas Elmendorf said extending breaks due to expire at year’s end would increase demand in the next few years by putting more money in consumers’ pockets. Over the long term, he said, the tax cuts would hurt the economy because the government would have to borrow so much money to finance them that it would begin competing with private companies seeking loans. That, in turn, would drive up interest rates, Elmendorf said.

I’ve already written once about how the GOP sabotaged itself when it didn’t fix the problems with these scorekeeping bureaucracies after 1994. If Republicans take power and don’t raze CBO and JCT, they will deserve to become a permanent minority party.

Recession Over?

As an economist I am the first to admit that sometimes the methods and practices of economics can end up creating confusion rather than understanding.  The National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) recent announcement that the recession ended in June 2009 is one such example.

At the heart of this confusion is a difference in how the public sees a recession and how NBER defines it.  Most importantly, NBER views recessions as contractions.   Simply, “Is the economy growing or not?”  NBER uses that framework to then date business cycles from their peak to their trough.  For this reason, NBER will often date the beginning of a recession during a time when the economy feels strong (at its peak) and date the end of a recession when it feels weak (when it’s at the bottom).

Since this method seems at odds with how the public views the economy, why do economists use it?  Quite simply, it is a lot easier to spot, and agree on, turning points in the economy than it is to agree on when growth moves from weak to moderate to strong.

OK, enough on definitions.  Did we actually hit bottom in Summer 2009?  Looking at a variety of economic measures, I think it’s clear we hit bottom earlier–more like Spring 2009.  Again, I must emphasize: Hitting bottom is not the same thing as “everything is fine” - just ask anyone who’s personally hit bottom.  Just two examples of why I believe the contraction ended in early 2009; first: consumption, as one can see from the chart, actually hit bottom hear the end of 2008.

One of the defining characteristics of the current recession has been continued weakness in the labor market.  I would go as far as to say there has almost been a disconnect of the labor market from the general economy.  All that said, looking at the trend in layoffs and discharges indicates that separations from the labor force peaked near the end of 2008.  The graph below also illustrates why some are worried about a double-dip, as layoffs spiked again in the middle of 2010, although most of that is driven by the 2010 Census hires.

The point to all this is not to argue that the economy isn’t weak.  It obviously still is.  However, the economy has been growing, for at least a year, and under many measures, longer.  Interestingly enough, most measures of the economy hit bottom before a dime of stimulus money was spent.  The above charts are from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis FRED website.  Don’t take my word on these two charts.  Look at lots of other measures.  Not all, but most other measures seem to tell the same story.

Congressional Budget Office Says We Can Maximize Long-Run Economic Output with 100 Percent Tax Rates

I hope the title of this post is an exaggeration, but it’s certainly a logical conclusion based on what is written in the Congressional Budget Office’s updated Economic and Budget Outlook. The Capitol Hill bureaucracy basically has a deficit-über-alles view of fiscal policy. CBO’s long-run perspective, as shown by this excerpt, is that deficits reduce output by “crowding out” private capital and that anything that results in lower deficits (or larger surpluses) will improve economic performance – even if this means big increases in tax rates.

CBO has also examined an alternative fiscal scenario reflecting several changes to current law that are widely expected to occur or that would modify some provisions of law that might be difficult to sustain for a long period. That alternative scenario embodies small differences in outlays relative to those projected under current law but significant differences in revenues: Under that scenario, most of the cuts in individual income taxes enacted in 2001 and 2003 and now scheduled to expire at the end of this year (except the lower rates applying to high-income taxpayers) are extended through 2020; relief from the AMT, which expired after 2009, continues through 2020; and the 2009 estate tax rates and exemption amounts (adjusted for inflation) apply through 2020. …Under those alternative assumptions, real GDP would be…lower in subsequent years than under CBO’s baseline forecast. …Under that alternative fiscal scenario, real GDP would fall below the level in CBO’s baseline projections later in the coming decade because the larger budget deficits would reduce or “crowd out” investment in productive capital and result in a smaller capital stock.

There’s nothing necessarily wrong with CBO’s concern about deficits, but looking at fiscal policy through that prism is akin to deciding who wins a baseball game by looking at what happened during the 6th inning. Yes, government borrowing drains capital from the productive sector of the economy. And nations such as Greece are painful examples of what happens when governments go too far down this path. But taxes also undermine economic performance by reducing incentives to work, save, and invest. And nations such as France are gloomy reminders of what happens when punitive tax rates discourage productive behavior.

What’s missing for CBO’s analysis is any recognition or understanding that the real problem is excessive government spending. Regardless of whether spending is financed by borrowing or taxes, resources are being diverted from the private sector to government. In other words, government spending is the disease and deficits are basically a symptom of that underlying problem. Indeed, it’s worth noting that there’s not much evidence that deficits cause economic damage but plenty of evidence that bloated public sectors stunt growth. This video is a good antidote to CBO’s myopic focus on budget deficits.