Tag: drought

A 1,000-Year History of Eastern Australia Megadroughts: How Do They Compare with the Recent Occurrence of the “Big Dry”?

Drought is a common feature of climate; but every so often when a longer-lasting or somewhat severe drought occurs, it is not long before someone, somewhere, makes the claim that that drought was either caused or made worse by CO2-induced global warming. A simple test of this thesis can be conducted by examining the historic record of drought for the location in question. If it can be shown that similar (or greater) frequencies or magnitudes of drought have occurred in the past, prior to the modern increase in CO2, then it cannot be definitively concluded that the current drought is the product of anything other than natural climate variability.

Unfortunately, long-term historical drought records covering more than a few decades of time are lacking for most locations across the planet. As a result, scientists have sought to augment these short-term instrumental drought histories with much longer proxy records, records that will sometimes extend back in time several centuries to millennia. Such is the case in the recent study of Vance et al. (2015), who derived a 1,003-year proxy of historical drought in eastern Australia.

Current Wisdom: Did Human-Caused Climate Change Lead to War in Syria?

The Current Wisdom is a series of monthly articles in which Patrick J. Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science, reviews interesting items on global warming in the scientific literature that may not have received the media attention that they deserved, or have been misinterpreted in the popular press.

Did human-caused climate change lead to war in Syria?

Based only on the mainstream press headlines, you almost certainly would think so.

Reading further into the articles where the case is laid out, a few caveats appear, but the chain of events seems strong.

The mechanism? An extreme drought in the Fertile Crescent region—one that a new study finds was made worse by human greenhouse gas emissions—added a spark to the tinderbox of tensions that had been amassing in Syria for a number of years under the Assad regime (including poor water management policies).

It is not until you dig pretty deep into the technical scientific literature, that you find out that the anthropogenic climate change impact on drought conditions in the Fertile Crescent is extremely minimal and tenuous—so much so that it is debatable as to whether it is detectable at all.

This is not to say that a strong and prolonged drought didn’t play some role in the Syria’s pre-war unrest—perhaps it did, perhaps it didn’t (a debate we leave up to folks much more qualified than we are on the topic)—but that the human-influenced climate change impact on the drought conditions was almost certainly too small to have mattered.

(Alas) There’s No BBQ Clause in the Constitution

Surprisingly, President Obama’s first direct attack on Paul Ryan since the congressman’s selection as Mitt Romney VP nominee doesn’t involve the threat of grandma being pushed off a cliff. Instead, it involves the latest farm bill, which has too many subsidies and food-stamp increases for House Republicans’ tastes (good for them).

Now, I’m no expert in agriculture policy – for more on farm bills and related disasters, I recommend my colleague Sallie James’s work – but one provision in the disputed legislation caught my eye: Apparently the federal government plans to buy over $150 million of meat and fish. Sounds like a great cookout, but what gives the government the power to do that? Where exactly is the Constitution’s BBQ Clause?

If only President Obama could take a page from another embattled Democratic president facing a drought-stricken nation: In 1887, Grover Cleveland vetoed a bill appropriating $10,000 for seeds for suffering Texas farmers, saying, “I can find no warrant for such an appropriation in the Constitution.” (For more on that and other similar examples, see this report from 10 years ago this month.)

What a long way we’ve come.