Tag: donald marron

Yet. Another. Fraudulent. Cost Estimate.

House Democrats claim that a not-yet-released Congressional Budget Office report puts the cost of their revised health care overhaul at $940 billion over the next 10 years.

Though I have yet to see the CBO score, I’ll bet anyone a fancy lunch that it does not claim the legislation would cost the federal government just $940 billion from 2010 through 2019.

As former Congressional Budget Office director Donald Marron has explained over and over, the figure that Democrats consistently cite for the cost of their bills is only the CBO’s estimate of the cost of federal spending related to the expansion of health insurance coverage.  It is not the full cost to the federal government, because each bill also spends taxpayer dollars on other items.

Marron examined the CBO’s March 11 score of the bill that passed the Senate on Christmas Eve, and found an additional $96 billion of spending over 10 years.  If the most recent iteration of ObamaCare is similar, then new federal spending in that bill would be approximately $1.036 trillion – pushing the total over the president’s spending target.

Anyone care to take me up on that fancy-lunch wager?

Moreover, the on-budget costs of the legislation probably account for only 40 percent of the total costs.  The other 60 percent come from the private-sector mandates.  But Democrats have systematically suppressed any estimates of those hidden taxes, probably because such an estimate would reveal the full cost of the legislation to be closer to $2.5 trillion over the next 10 years.

It has been 272 days since Democrats introduced the first complete version of the president’s health plan.  We still haven’t seen an honest cost estimate.

Reid Health Bill Perpetuates the $1.5 Trillion Fraud

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has finally unveiled his massive 2,074-page health care bill.  The Congressional Budget Office reports that the insurance-expansion provisions would cost the feds $848 billion over 10 years.  To raise those funds, the bill would tax wages, medical devices, prescription drugs, sick people, health insurance premiums (twice), HSAs, FSAs, HRAs, and – why not? – cosmetic surgery.  The remainder would supposedly come from $491 billion of Medicare cuts, even though Medicare’s chief actuary says such cuts are “unrealistic” and “doubtful.”  But don’t worry.  Somehow, this thing’s gonna reduce the deficit.

Of course, that $848 billion only accounts for part of the federal government’s share of the tab.  There is other new federal spending.  My read is that the CBO estimates $998 billion of total new federal spending – though I’ll be waiting for former CBO director Donald Marron to provide a more authoritative tally.

And then there are costs that Reid and his comrades have pushed off the federal budget.  For example, the $25 billion unfunded mandate that Reid would impose on states.  Total so far: just over $1 trillion.

But the biggest hidden cost is that of the private-sector mandates.  In both the Clinton health plan and the Massachusetts health plan, the private-sector mandates –- the legal requirements that individuals and employers purchase health insurance –- accounted for 60 percent of total costs.  That suggests that if the Reid bill’s cost to federal and state governments is $1 trillion, then the total cost is probably $2.5 trillion, and Harry Reid – like House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – is hiding $1.5 trillion of the cost of his bill.

Without a cost estimate of the private-sector mandates, Reid has not yet satisfied the request made by eight Democratic senators for a “complete CBO score” of the bill 72 hours prior to floor consideration.

Fortunately, by law, the CBO must eventually score the private-sector mandates.  When that happens, the CBO will reveal costs that the bills’ authors are trying to hide. When that happens, the CBO will present the new federal spending on page 1, new state spending maybe on page 10, and the cost of the private-sector mandates on page 20 or something.  Democrats will tout the figure on page 1.  But the bill’s total cost will the sum of those three figures -– a sum that will reveal the costs that the bill’s authors have been hiding.

The House passed its bill without a complete CBO score.  The Senate should not follow suit.

I’ve written previously about this massive fraud here, here, here, and here.

(Cross-posted at Politico’s Health Care Arena.)