Tag: damascus

The Syrian Pound Zigs and Zags

Following U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s saber-rattling statements on the 26th of August, the value of the Syrian pound (SYP) has zigged and zagged. Indeed, the SYP lost 24.7% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the two days following Kerry’s announcement (moving from 225 to 270 SYP/USD). Then, yesterday, we saw a sharp reversal in the course of the pound. Over the past two days, the SYP regained 25.58% of its value, bringing the black-market exchange rate back down to 215 SYP/USD. At this rate, the implied annual inflation rate is 209.85% (see the charts below the jump).

So, what caused the recent strengthening of the Syrian pound? We have to look no further than the eroding support for a U.S.-led strike against Syria. Yes, the United States has lost support from important allies, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Italy.

In addition, Syrian authorities have cracked down again on black-market currency trading. In the past week, the authorities have shut down a number of currency traders; made “friendly” reminders to the public of the penalties of trading on the black market—imprisonment of 10 years and a hefty fine; and warned Syrians to stay away from “counterfeit” dollars that have supposedly been circulating. The authorities’ “get tough” policy followed speculation that the SYP/USD rate would surpass the 300 mark.

I have established a page to track current black-market exchange-rate and implied inflation data for the Syrian pound, as well as for troubled currencies in Iran, Argentina, North Korea, and Venezuela. For more, see: The Troubled Currencies Project.

What Is Syria’s Iranian Credit Line Worth?

Last week, the press was filled with reportage about Tehran throwing a lifeline – actually a credit line of $3.6 billion  – to the Syrian regime.

The announcement of this Iranian lifeline should have changed the economic expectations of Syrians in the throes of what has morphed into a bloody civil war. Indeed, if it materializes, the $3.6 billion credit line should allow Damascus to conserve its dwindling supply of foreign exchange. This development should have thrown a positive expectation shock into the market for the Syrian pound.

So, did economic expectations receive a positive boost from the announcement of Tehran’s lifeline? Let’s go back to May 27th. That’s when the tentative credit line agreement was announced. A mini event study shows that the initial agreement had no material impact on expectations, as objectively measured by the Syrian pound/U.S. dollar black-market exchange rate. Indeed, the SYP/USD exchange rate was unmoved by the tentative agreement (see the accompanying table).

The next event in this credit line story occurred on July 30th, when it was announced that the May agreement had been finalized and signed on July 29th. Again, expectations and the SYP/USD exchange rate remained unmoved (see the accompanying table):

What, then, can we say about the Tehran-Damascus deal? Well, objective data – namely market prices – tell us that the widely-reported event had no material effect on Syrians’ economic expectations. Accordingly, the implied inflation rate for Syria remained unmoved. Using these objective black-market exchange-rate data, I estimate that Syria is currently experiencing an annual inflation rate of 190.7%.

In short, Syrians viewed the deal as irrelevant. They think that either Iranians won’t deliver on the promised credit line, or that if they do, it will not change the situation on the ground.

I often tell my students to be mindful of the late Prof. Armen Alchian’s “95% rule”: Ninety-five percent of what you read that passes for finance and economics is either wrong or irrelevant. For the time being, it appears that Syria’s Iranian credit line falls under the latter category.

I have established a page to track current black-market exchange-rate and implied inflation data for the Syrian pound, as well as for troubled currencies in Iran, Argentina, North Korea, and Venezuela. For more, see: The Troubled Currencies Project.

The Endgame in Syria

Eventually, Syrian president Bashar-al Assad will fall from power. When that will happen has been the subject of much speculation. Appearing on NPR’s On Point, CBS News foreign correspondent Clarissa Ward, who won a 2012 Peabody Award for her reporting on the Syrian uprising, had this to say about ”the endgame and the final chapter and the final countdown” and all the other clichés we have been hearing:

[T]he reality on the ground is that the regime still has some fight left in it. They are still militarily far superior to rebel forces. Rebel forces are still desperately lacking the heavy weaponry they would need to seriously take on the regime militarily. They are still not a cohesive fighting force with a clear command structure. There is still almost no coordination among the various rebel groups. So I think it’s a little early to talk about the final countdown. But certainly what we’ve seen transpiring in Damascus over the past few days … I think it is a turning point. We have opened a new chapter even if it’s not the final chapter in this.